Los Angeles Clippers vs. New York Knicks NBA Player Props & Picks (11/6/23)

James Harden makes his debut in this matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and New York Knicks. Get Clippers vs. Knicks player props best bets, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. New York Knicks Player Prop Picks

Which players can dominate their respective props in the Clippers vs. Knicks game?

Ivica Zubac 8+ Points (-165 DK)

Ivica Zubac (11.6 PPG) is an efficient scorer at a 61.5 FG%, so he makes his opportunities count. The Clippers center will receive a significant boost with former All-Star James Harden joining the roster. Harden is one of the most productive pick-and-roll passers in the NBA who completely enhances shot quality and attempts for his centers. Unsurprisingly, Harden’s teams in recent years have been near the top of the standings for roll man frequency. And even if Zubac’s minutes don’t completely align with Harden, he still has Russell Westbrook to feed him on rolls to the basket and post ups. 

The odds are juiced, but it’s a +EV play to me. He must score eight points about 62 percent of the time based on his odds for the bet to have a positive expected value. 

Jalen Brunson First Basket (+480 FD)

Mitchell Robinson is a considerable favorite to win the tip-off over Ivica Zubac, which is crucial in this prop. 

The Clippers are allowing the third most non-restricted area paint field goal attempts, and Jalen Brunson easily paces the Knicks in these attempts. Los Angeles’ defensive strength revolves around their wings, which doesn’t bode well for RJ Barrett or Julius Randle, who is having the worst opening shooting stretch in NBA history. With James Harden starting, Brunson has an easy target to exploit too. 

Finally, Brunson paced the Knicks in Game First FGA percentage last year and virtually tied Julius Randle in Team First FGA percentage. Therefore, Brunson owns the most first basket equity of any player on the court, especially considering Randle’s cataclysmic shooting slump and matchup. 

Brunson needs to score the first basket about 17 percent of the time here. 

Julius Randle Under 18.5 Points (-111 FD)

Until Julius Randle breaks out of this historic slump, it’s wise to fade his production. He’s hit the under on this line in five of six games due to impossibly bad 27/22/61 shooting splits, which includes a 40 FG% and 33.3 3PT% on wide open field goal attempts. At that efficiency, it would take an enormous amount of attempts for Randle to hit 19 points. 

Kawhi Leonard awaits him too, so Randle doesn’t own an easy matchup either. Leonard has the strength to stonewall Randle’s physicality and keep him off the offensive glass while also locking him up in isolation. The Knicks big man will eventually regress to the mean and up his scoring, but it’s unlikely that his breakout occurs against the Clippers.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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