Arkansas-Tennessee Odds, Picks, Predictions Saturday: NCAA Super Regional Best Bets
There are eight coveted tickets to the College World Series up for grabs this weekend. Sportsbooks posted odds for each super regional series and their opening matchups. As starting pitchers are announced, let’s take a look at the board to find some bets for the NCAA baseball tournament, highlighting Arkansas-Tennessee odds.
When betting the college baseball postseason, remember to both (a) compare series prices to game prices and (b) check in on those series prices day over day. Did they adjust accordingly to pitcher announcements and game line movement?
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Tennessee vs. Arkansas: Game 1 Betting Odds
How Do Super Regionals Work?
Following a double-elimination tournament in the regionals, we’re left with college baseball’s Sweet 16. Those 16 teams play a best-of-three series with a spot in Omaha, Neb., on the line. The higher-ranked national seed hosts the tournament. National top-16 seeds Oregon State, North Carolina, Auburn, Arkansas, and UCLA all host both regionals and super regionals.
For games between two non-national top-16 seeds (Louisville vs. Miami (FL) and Duke vs. Murray State), the higher-ranked team usually hosts, but there have been instances where the lower-ranked team hosted due to better accommodating facilities. In this case, Louisville and Duke will serve as the hosts.
Game 1 action plays out Friday and Saturday, with Game 2s on Saturday and Sunday, and any necessary Game 3s on Sunday and Monday.
College Baseball Best Bets: Arkansas Vs. Tennessee Odds
There are two bets that stand out to me, and neither is a game outcome. The Arkansas Razorbacks (46-13) are undervalued in the Fayetteville Super Regionals and stand out as an intriguing bet to win their series.
The best price on Arkansas is -130 at the time of writing. According to College Baseball Insiders, the Razorbacks have a nearly 70% chance to beat the Tennessee Volunteers in the series, equivalent to roughly -220 odds. Arkansas also lines at -170 or higher to win Game 1.
Teams that win Game 1 also win the series 77% of the time (153 of 199 teams since 1999). Last year, all eight teams that advanced to the College World Series won the opening Super Regional game. However, it’s worth noting that all three series to go three games in 2023 were won by the losing team (Texas, Duke, and Oregon).
Given the historical significance of Game 1, and because Arkansas is a more significant Game 1 favorite than their series price, I’m taking the Razorbacks on the favorable series price (-130).
A Case For Betting On Unders?
One of my favorite recurring memes during college baseball tournaments picks on the relief pitching for these teams (or, more accurately, the lack thereof). It’s not unfounded. Typically, college bullpens aren’t deep, and that causes plenty of collapses. In the postseason, pitching reigns supreme.
In the case of Arkansas, the bullpen is a significant strength. Junior lefty and East Carolina transfer Zach Root (7-5, 3.78 ERA) likely takes the mound in Game 1. Root opened the season finale series against Tennessee, a series Arkansas took 2-1 in Fayetteville, and Game 1 of the SEC Tournament. Against overmatched North Dakota State, the ‘Hogs chose another arm to preserve Root.
In the SEC tournament versus Ole Miss, Root allowed just one earned run in 4.0 innings, but did surrender seven hits that led to an additional four unearned runs in that inning. Heading into the second inning, Ole Miss wouldn’t score again, but that 5-1 cushion was enough, and Arkansas was a one-and-done in the SEC Tournament. Against Tennessee on May 15, Root lasted 3.2 innings, surrendered seven more hits, and four earned runs.
The leash for Root can and will be short here. With dynamic arms like junior Parker Coil (3-0, 1.33) and senior Dylan Carter (2-0, 2.18) at the ready, expect Dave Van Horn to utilize the bullpen as soon as trouble shows its face.
The Razorbacks own the second-best xFIP (expected field-independent pitching) among the remaining teams, second only to opposing Tennessee. Arkansas also finished second in the nation in fielding.
No Place Like Home
Despite likely protests from Tennessee fans, Arkansas enjoys a major home-field advantage at Baum-Walker Stadium.
The Razorbacks posted a dominant 35-4 record at home this season. Do keep an eye on the weather, as Saturday looks to be rainy. Tennessee dealt with adverse weather in its regional final against Wake Forest. Sunday and Monday (if necessary) appear more favorable for baseball.
Despite some recent postseason woes, this Arkansas team is filled past the brim with talent and is one of four teams capable of winning the national championship (along with LSU, North Carolina, and Florida State).
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