College Basketball Best Bets (2/21/23) Expert NCAAB Betting Picks
College Basketball Best Bets (2/21/23)
Tipping off with Tuesday hoops, where are a handful of battles. I find some college basketball best bets for 2/21/23.
Villanova vs Xavier Best Bet
It’s been a down year for the Blue Bloods with the likes of UNC and Villanova severely reeling amidst coaching overhauls. This is Nova’s first year without legendary coach Jay Wright, currently sitting at 13-14 with bleak postseason hopes.
Once regarded as one of the best two-way teams in the nation, now drastically dropping in AdjO and AdjD. Especially on the defensive side, currently ranking 99th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Speaking of a reeling defense, that has been the Achilles heel towards Xavier’s lack of consistency as they rank 85th in AdjD. This bodes well for Villanova who has lacked scoring consistency throughout the season.
Their scoring consistency has improved since the return of Justin Moore, winning three of their last four. He has commanded defensive attention with his play making abilities, opening the court for their secondary scorers to get higher quality looks at the rim.
Points should come at a consistent rate once again for the Wildcats as they look to salvage their season with a late push. Xavier’s defense is weak in the interior, resulting in consistent looks at the rim. If Nova can limit Xaiver on the perimeter by stretching out the coverage on the arc, then they can set a scoring pace that will be tough to match.
Best Bet: Villanova +5.5
Tennessee vs Texas A&M Best Bet
Will the real Tennessee please stand up? After thwarting the number one team in the nation Alabama, they fell back flat on their face in a loss to Kentucky. A lack of consistency has played a major role in their recent woes, looking to bounce back on track against the Aggies.
The Aggies on the other hand have been one of the hottest teams in the nation, making a late push to get a generous seeding by dominating the SEC, currently ranking second in the conference.
Unlike the Vols, the Aggies have thrived on the offensive end by being dominant in the interior. They crash the glass as one of the most consistent rebounding teams in the nation and turn them into quality second chance opportunities.
This plays into Tennessee’s hands as they are an elite rebounding unit themselves. Being able to negate the Aggie’s source of consistent points and forcing them into scoring lulls. The Vols being able to slow down the scoring pace sets up their offense nicely should they be inconsistent once again.
In what is expected to be a defensive slugfest, I’ll back the Vols in a bounceback opportunity.
Best Bet: Tennessee +1.5
Miami vs Virginia Tech Best Bet
It’s been an odd year for the Hokies as they have built a rapport of being one of the best two-way perimeter units in the nation. That was until this season, severely reeling on the defensive end.
Miami has run very similar to Virginia Tech, being efficient on the offensive end while struggling to defend at a consistent rate.
This may be exactly what Virginia Tech needs as they should have no shortage of high quality scoring opportunities in this matchup. This rate of consistent scoring will help mask their defensive woes, setting a pace that Miami should struggle to keep up with.
The Hokies can burn you from both the interior and perimeter, playing an inside-out type of offense. They play at an average pace, looking to get into a halfcourt set for the highest quality perimeter look that they can get.
Should perimeter looks not fall, Virginia Tech can look to burn the Hurricanes on the inside with their big man Grant Basile. Miami allows two point completions around the rim at a high rate, potentially being susceptible once again.
Like my handicap for Villanova, I am banking on Virginia Tech’s offense being able to find consistent scoring success while potentially slowing down Miami with their perimeter defense.
Best Bet: Virginia Tech -1.5
Indiana vs Michigan State Best Bet
In a year full of inconsistencies, the Big Ten has sneakily run as the second best conference in terms of combined Net rankings.
We have a battle of some of the upper tier teams in the conference battling out when Indiana hits the road to take on the Spartans. Both come in on the opposite sides of the momentum train as Indiana played a classic against Illinois while the Spartans stumbled against the lowly Wolverines.
The Spartans lack of offensive consistency was on full display in their recent loss, now potentially suffering scoring woes once again when Indiana brings their interior presence.
Tracye Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson play as two powerful bigs, battling it out in the paint with relentless looks at the rim. Even with the Spartans impressive defensive metrics, they struggle to limit interior scoring due to their lack of size. Sissoko can’t do it alone and Hauser plays more of a stretch role.
Early line movement is favoring the Spartans, allowing me to wait to see how high this spread can rise before taking a position on the Hoosiers.
Best Bet: Wait on Indiana spread