We’re now a week into the college basketball season and it is finally time to unleash the formula. We used the first week to compile data and get a little bit of a feel for some of the teams this season. There are still some teams who have yet to play D1 teams so there are some teams we will still be avoiding for another week or so. Last season, my college basketball formula was my most successful one (62.3%). In fact, college basketball has been my most successful sport for years.
Like most formulas, this one tends to become more accurate as the season progresses and more data becomes available. However, in the first week of the season, there have been 17 games that the formula has been in favor of. Out of those 17 games, the formula correctly predicted the correct outcome in 11 of those games. 11-6 might not seem too impressive but it is early in the season and $100 bet on each game with -110 odds would net a profit of about $400. Not a bad start, right?
What The Formula Does and Doesn’t Account For
Without getting into too much detail, this formula looks at a number of different variables for each team:
– Offensive Efficiency
– Defensive Efficiency
– Possession Per Game
– Points Scored Per “#” Possesions
– Points Allowed Per “#” Possesions
– Strength of Schedule
– Opponent Offensive Efficiency
– Opponent Defensive Efficiency
– Home Court Advantage
– Conference Strength
– Roster Depth
The beauty of this formula is also what it DOES NOT account for:
– Previous Year’s results
– School Reputation
How it Works
The data is inputted into a formula I created that spits out 22 results that ultimately lead to one final result that is used to determine the projected final score. For example, the data for Team A is inputted across from the data for Team B. The formula then calculates a number of results that feed into a final formula that predicts the final score of the matchup between Team A and Team B. Next, the final score is added up for a total and also subtracted from each other to determine a winning margin. The total and spread from the formula are both compared to the total and spread set by the sportsbooks. In order for a pick to be considered “favorable”, both the spread and total have to be a certain percentage higher or lower than that set by the sportsbook.
The formula also predicts each team’s winning percentage, which comes in handy for moneyline bets. In order for a moneyline bet to be “favorable”, the winning percentage has to compared to the odds offered on the moneyline. For example, if a team’s win percentage is above 50% and they are being offered plus money by the sportsbook, that will be a “favorable” result. A team that is expected to win just 60% of the time but is given odds of -200, that is not considered a good bet.
Tonight’s Best College Basketball Bets
Now that the boring stuff is out of the way, let’s see which games fit the mold for tonight’s action. The spread and total come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. Pepperdine -5.5 vs Cal State Northridge
2. Chattanooga +3 vs Troy
3. Pepperdine vs Cal State Northridge Under 154.5
4. Cal Baptist vs Texas Under 138.5