College Football Five: Notre Dame is a Lock Saturday

Week 7 of the College Football season is upon us. Another loaded slate is here with over 35 games on the schedule. COVID is canceling games, however, making the scheduling interesting moving forward. Georgia and Alabama are the game of the week, and arguable could be the game of the year. This will be the 24th in college football history, where the number one offense will play the number one defense. Here are today’s five best college football bets.

Pittsburgh @ Miami (-13) O/U 47.5

Pitt and Miami are both coming off tough losses last week, so that we could see some sleepy teams in this game. This should be a slugfest as the lest three matchups have hit towards the under. Looking at some of the advanced metrics, both teams also have great defenses that should limit the opposition. Although the Hurricanes have an explosive offense, they have been inconsistent moving the football with sustainable drives. Pittsburgh has been good at defending explosive plays this season.

1st Half Under 24
Miami has a chance to come out flat after being steamrolled by Clemson last week. The full game over could also be a play, but getting 24 in the first half was too good to pass up. Winds will be about 15 mph, which will cause issues in the passing game. Pitt will also have issues trying to move the ball on this Miami defense.

Kansas @ West Virginia (-22.5) O/U 49

Kansas heads to West Virginia without Les Miles coaching. The Jayhawks are one of the worst football teams in college and will struggle without the ball coach today. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in college football, and Kansas has one of the nation’s worst offenses. The Jayhawks will struggle to move the football in this game with the discrepancy between the offense and defense. On the other side, West Virginia has struggled to move the football, and the Kansas defense is good enough to limit the Mountaineers offense, just a bit. West Virginia should be fine winning the game, but it could be low scoring.

Under 49
Both teams run up-tempo offenses, so backing an under in this situation is tough. However, given how bad Kansas’ offense is, this total has a shot of hitting. If West Virginia struggles to move the football at times, then the total should fly under.

Louisville @ Notre Dame (-17) O/U 61

We’re betting a public favorite today! Notre Dame is a three score favorite vs. Louisville on Saturday, but a few mismatches will make the difference. Notre Dame’s defensive havoc rating is one of the best in college football, and Lousiville allows a lot of havoc on offense. Not to mention, Notre Dame is also one of the best teams in college footballs when finishing drives, and Lousiville has allowed a lot of points defensively when teams get inside the 40. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame should be able to limit the Lousiville offense.

Notre Dame -17
I’m trying to figure out how Notre Dame will not cover this game, but it’ll probably happen. They couldn’t cover the spread last against Florida State and probably will find a way to leave the backdoor open on Saturday.

UMass @ Georgia Southern (-31) O/U 62

On top of backing a public three-touchdown favorite, backing one of the worst teams in college football will have to happen. However, there are a lot of good situational spots to back UMass today. This is the only game on the Minutemen’s schedule to write this, so this will be their Super Bowl. Georgia Southern has a big game coming up next week against Coastal Carolina as well, and triple-option teams struggle to cover huge spreads like this one. UMass also returns a lot of weapons on the offensive side, so they should be able to stay within 31-points, although this is going to be gross.

UMass +31
This game could easily be a donation to the bookie backing UMass, but the spread is too big, and the spot is too good to pass up.

Georgia @ Alabama (-6) O/U 58.5

The college football game of the year is happening tonight in Tuscaloosa between Alabama and Georgia. The Crimson Tide has the number one rated offense in the country, and the Bulldogs defense is also number one. Also, Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19 earlier this week and will not be on the sidelines tonight. To think he won’t have a say before the game is over is a different story. Alabama’s offense is on another level and should move the football on the Georgia defense on Saturday. The issue will be on the other side with Saban not being able to make defensive adjustments tonight. If Georgia goes down early, expect them to go up-tempo with Stetson Bennett. Alabama’s defense has not been the unstoppable force they have been. They are vulnerable, and Georgia should be able to move the football.

Over 57.5
You wouldn’t think taking an over in a matchup like this would make sense, but today it does. Both offenses should be trading possessions all game. Both teams should be able to make it to 28 points tonight, having the over hit. Also, look for a Georgia live number if they go +7 or better in the game.

  
I fell in love with handicapping right away. Sports betting is a lot more enjoyable when going through advanced data to find an edge on a Vegas line. Situational plays is a focus of mine and study stats and data analytics to go along with certain situations to make myself a more well rounded capper. College football and college basketball are my favorite to bet.

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