College Football Free Betting Picks: Five Best Bets (West Virginia a Lock)
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Betting on Halloween only means betting scary numbers and teams as we sweat out a college football Saturday on the couch. Although the college football slate is not the best this Saturday, there are some great angles to take this weekend. The Saturday’s that do not have the best matchups have been known to deliver the best drama. Let’s root for upsets and chaos this Halloween!
Iowa State (-28) @ Kansas O/U 50.5
Iowa State and Kansas square off in Lawrence on Saturday. Both teams are coming off a loss as the Cyclones lost to Oklahoma State, and rival Kansas State dominated the Jayhawks. This game isn’t going to be the most-watched college football game on Saturday, but Kansas games have been one of my best bets, so it’s time to capitalize on them another week.
In the last two weeks, you could make an argument the under should have hit in both Kansas games. However, fluke plays and ridiculous special teams have sent the game over. Well, that stops today. Iowa State is coming off a tough loss and will look to bounce back against Kansas. They will want to put the clamps down on the Jayhawks early should limit Kansas on offense while putting points up against this Jayhawks defense.
Under 50.5
The weird scoring in Kansas games ends today. Both teams are below average in pace, and Iowa State ranks 92nd in pace. This game should be slower-moving, and as long as we don’t see insane fumble luck or weird special teams plays, this total should fly under.
Kansas State @ West Virginia (-5) O/U 46
A showdown in Morgantown is taking place between Kansas State and West Virginia. When Circa opened college football lines last Sunday, the Mountaineers opened up as a 5-point favorite despite being unranked and playing a ranked Kansas State team. When I saw that line, it was so scary, and since today is Halloween, I knew I had to jump on it. ESPN‘s Bill Connelly wrote a piece this week about why the S&P+ rankings hate KSU, and it comes down to them overachieving when you dig into their advanced numbers.
Last week, Kansas State outgained Kansas 381-320 in total yards despite winning 55-14. They were underwhelming against Texas Tech and TCU this season and are now on a backup quarterback that has struggled to move the ball. West Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country and should limit the KSU offense. The Mountaineers offense has improved over the last few weeks as well, and this could be a coming-out party for points.
West Virginia -5
Kansas State finds itself in a sandwich spot after beating rival Kansas and then potentially looking ahead to Oklahoma State for first place in the Big 12 next week. Since 2017, unranked teams laying points against unranked teams are 16-7-1 ATS. West Virginia is the team to take Saturday.
Indiana (-13) @ Rutgers O/U 53
Indiana and Rutgers could be sleeping to start their game on Saturday. Both teams are coming off huge Week 1 upsets and might struggle to get things going on Saturday. Both offenses also struggled in their upset wins. Indiana was outgained 488-211 in offensive yards while Rutgers posted a 35% offensive success rate while having less than 300 yards of offense.
Both teams benefitted from opponents’ blunders last week. Penn State beats Indiana if Devyn Ford fell at the goalline last Saturday. Rutgers capitalized on SEVEN (7) Michigan State turnover and recovered five fumbles in last week’s upset win. Kudos to both teams for pulling off upsets, but the offenses were not impressive.
Under 53
The sleepy spot on top of poor offensive play should keep this under alive. It’s a small play, but seeing what we saw last week does not give me confidence that many points will be scored from either side.
Texas @ Oklahoma State (-3.5) O/U 58.5
Arguably the best matchup in the 3:30 timeslot will be Oklahoma State and Texas. This will be an entertaining matchup to watch the Longhorns offense vs. the Cowboys defense as both are two of the best in the country. While everyone will be fixated on that matchup, the game could be decided on the other side of the ball.
The Texas defense has rebounded from its blunder against Texas Tech earlier this season. Outside of the passing success rate, Texas’s defense is one of the best in the country. This could be huge going up against an Oklahoma State offense that will have Spencer Sanders at quarterback again. However, the Longhorns can get to the quarterback, and Sanders struggles when he has pressure on him.
Texas +3.5
Death, taxes, Tom Herman as a dog. It’s as simple as that. The game should be a fun back and forth matchup, but I think Texas keeps this game within three points and possible wins outright.
Ohio State (-10.5) @ Penn State O/U 64
The Game of the Week is going down in Happy Valley. Ohio State will take on Penn State for an early lead in the Big Ten East standings. Ohio State is coming off an impressive home win over Nebraska, while Penn State was upset at Indiana last week. The public is going to be all over the road favorite, but the numbers will show otherwise.
Penn State outgained Indiana 488-211 last week and should have won the game. Ohio State did end up pulling away from Nebraska, but they did show vulnerability at times. The thing with this game is that Penn State will throw the kitchen sink at the Buckeyes. Against Indiana, they ran a very vanilla offense to hide things from Ohio State, so there an element of surprise. The Buckeyes defense has many new faces so that Penn State could capitalize on the inexperience.
Penn State +10.5
Take Penn State at anything over +10. They should hang around at home against an Ohio State team that is still figuring out their identity early this season. They took care of Nebraska, but Penn State is a step up from the Cornhuskers. Look for the Nittany Lions to have a unique offensive gameplan going into this game.
