Get Colts vs. Ravens player prop picks & odds for the (9/24/23) matchup
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Colts vs. Ravens Player Prop Picks
The Baltimore Ravens (2-0) host the Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at 1pm ET this Sunday (9/24/23) in week 3 of the NFL season. The Colts are expected to be missing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who suffered a concussion last week, which creates some interesting questions about player prop bets for backup quarterback Gardner Minshew.
Let’s take a look at some of the betting odds on player prop bets and pick the best Colts vs. Ravens player prop bets in this week 3 matchup.
Michael Pittman over 5.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
Michael Pittman is an absolute target monster. Through the first two weeks of this season he is 4th in the NFL in targets with 23 after finishing 12th last season. We don’t expect that to change with Minshew under center instead of Richardson. If anything, the more experienced quarterback who is more of a pocket passer might look Pittman’s way even more often than Richardson did through the first two weeks.
Part of the reason Pittman gets so many targets is that the Colts don’t have much else offensively besides him. Zack Moss had a nice game in week 2. Kylen Granson has been a pleasant surprise over the first two weeks. Rookie Josh Downs has shown a few flashes, and second-year WR Alec Pierce is fine. But none of those players comes close to Pittman in terms of talent or reliability.
Pittman has 8 catches in each of his first two games this season and had at least 6 catches in 10 of his 16 games last season with worse quarterback play and even fewer weapons around him to take some of the attention away. We also expect the Colts to be playing from behind in this game, which means even more volume in the passing offense.
The Ravens’ defense has been solid against the pass so far this season, but one of their two games was against CJ Stroud in his first career start, while the other was against a banged up and struggling Joe Burrow. Still, they have allowed at least 6 catches to a wide receiver in each of their first two games (Robert Woods had 6 while Tee Higgins had 8).
We also like the over on Pittman’s receiving yards at 58.5, but the +110 odds on his receptions prop are much more appealing. Be sure to head over to BetMGM to get the best odds on this bet. As of this writing, other sportsbooks either had the line at 4.5 receptions with much less appealing odds, or they had worse odds on the over at 5.5 receptions.
Zay Flowers over 56.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Flowers has been one of the most exciting rookies so far this season and is quickly establishing himself as a go-to target for Lamar Jackson. He has more than twice as many targets (15) as any other Ravens wide receiver through two weeks, and he has converted that into 13 catches for 140 receiving yards.
The Ravens want to find ways to get the ball into Flowers’ hands, and they have also used him in the run game in each of the first two weeks. He has three total carries for 15 yards.
With his elite quickness and top-end speed, Flowers is a threat to break off a big play every time he touches the ball, and his role is only going to expand as the season goes along. He has a great matchup this week against a weak Colts secondary that sorely misses Stephon Gilmore.
The Colts have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game so far this season and just got torched for 337 yards by rookie CJ Stroud. All three of their top cornerbacks – Kenny Moore, Darrell Baker Jr., and Dallis Flowers – are allowing completion percentages over 60% and passer ratings over 100.0 after two weeks.
The Ravens are expected to be without Odell Beckham Jr. in this game, which means even more opportunities will be heading Flowers’ way. He has surpassed 60 yards receiving in each of his first two games, and that doesn’t even consider the small rushing production. His prop lines are starting to catch up, as his receiving yards prop has climbed from 39.5 to 42.5 to 53.5 this week.
We prefer the over on the total scrimmage yards compared to the receiving yards because the difference is only a few yards and the odds are a bit better. Flowers could easily go over this number on receiving yards alone, so why not get the added benefit of the rushing production?
There won’t be too many more opportunities to bet the over on his scrimmage yards with as much confidence as we have this week. Take advantage while you still can.
Gus Edwards over 48.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Gus Edwards is another player who is going to benefit from higher volume due to injury, as his backfield partner Justice Hill is expected to miss this game with a foot injury.
The Colts have been stingy against the run through the first two weeks. They are 7th in rushing defense and have allowed the fewest yards per carry in the league at just 2.6 per attempt. They are also PFF’s top-graded run defense so far this season.
Some of those numbers are a bit skewed by their matchup with the Texans last week, who have been the worst rushing offense in the league so far this season, largely due to 80% of their offensive line being injured. The Colts’ defense is solid up front, but not as stout as those early numbers suggestion.
While the Colts’ defense creates some hesitation with this pick, it’s also baked into the odds as part of the reason the over is nearly even money. Even if Edwards struggles to run the ball efficiently against a solid Colts front seven, he should be able to get at least 49 rushing yards on volume alone.
As noted above, we expect the Ravens to be playing with a lead in this game, which means Edwards should see plenty of carries in the second half. He would need 20 carries if the Colts hold him to 2.5 yards per carry, but if he gets closer to his current average of 5.2 yards per carry, then he would need less than half that volume.
The most likely outcome is somewhere in the middle, but there are multiple realistic scenarios in which Edwards goes over 49 rushing yards, which makes this a solid bet at -105 odds.