Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (10/1/23)

Get Commanders vs. Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (10/1/23) matchup

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Commanders vs. Eagles Player Prop Picks

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders at 1 p.m. ET this Sunday (10/1/23) in week 4 of the 2023 NFL season. Let’s look at the betting odds on player prop bets in this game and pick the best Commanders vs. Eagles player prop bets.

D’Andre Swift 70+ rushing yards (+106 at FanDuel)

The sportsbooks are still catching up to D’Andre Swift’s emergence as the Eagles’ new No. 1 running back, and until they do there is great value on the over on Swift’s rushing yards. His prop line only moved up a few yards, from 35.5 to 40.5, after his 175-yard explosion against the Vikings in week 2. After another 130 yards last week against Tampa, it’s jumped over 50% this week up to 65.5, but that’s still too low.

The combination of Swift’s elite burst and vision with the Eagles’ dominant run blocking has helped Swift become the league’s 2nd leading rusher after 3 weeks. If the Eagles had given him more than 2 touches and 29% of the snaps in week 1, he likely would be leading the league by a healthy margin.

Swift is 2nd in the league with an average of 6.8 yards per carry, but that doesn’t even begin to tell the whole story. As you can see in some of the highlights above, he is exploding through massive holes and picking up most of his yards before he even gets touched. He leads the league with 250 yards before contact and 5.6 yards before contact per attempt. He has 45 carries this season and has not been tackled for a loss one time, leading to a league-high 68.9% rushing success rate.

Again, the combination of Swift’s vision, burst and the Eagles’ elite run blocking looks virtually unstoppable. Pro Football Focus grades the Eagles as an 83.0 for run blocking so far this season. That is 12.3 points higher than the next closest team (Jets).

The Commanders have a solid defense but they can be vulnerable on the ground. They are allowing 128.7 rushing yards per game (22nd) on 4.8 yards per carry (27th). Add in the expected game script where the Eagles should be leading in this game and running the ball in the second half, and you have a recipe for another big day from Mr. Swift.

So long as the Eagles don’t do something unexpected like giving Kenneth Gainwell all the RB touches again, Swift should easily go over 65.5 rushing yards. Our preferred bet is the alt rushing yards at FanDuel, where you can get 70+ yards at +106 as of this writing, and +290 odds for a third consecutive 100-yard game.

Brian Robinson Jr. over 1.5 receptions (+140 at DraftKings)

Robinson Jr. has been one of the biggest bright spots of the Commanders’ season so far. He is currently 7th in the league in rushing and averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which is 7th among RBs with at least 30 carries. But besides his rushing, one of the surprises of his season so far has been his involvement in the passing game.

Robinson Jr. had at least 2 targets in each of his first 2 games this season, a mark he reached only 4 times in 12 games last season. He is having success doing it, as you can see in the first highlight below.

The Commanders want to get Robinson involved in the offense, but it’s going to be tough for him to do that on the ground. The Eagles are currently leading the league in rushing defense, allowing just 48.3 yards game and 3.0 yards per carry (4th). They are also 1st in EPA per rush allowed and 5th in rushing success rate.

As we wrote in our matchup preview, we expect Washington will still try to establish the run after it was so effective for them when they upset the Eagles in week 10 last season. However, if they struggle to run it effectively or if they fall behind and find themselves in a more pass-heavy game script, they are still going to look for ways to get the ball in Robinson’s hands, and that’s going to come in the pass game.

If it isn’t by design, then Robinson might get a higher volume of targets by necessity. Sam Howell has been sacked a league-high 19 times and the Eagles are 2nd in the league in pressures and pressure rate. If Howell needs to get rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure, then checkdowns to Robinson will be one of the best ways to do that.

Washington does have a good pass-catching back in Antonio Gibson, who has 4 more targets and 4 more receptions than Robinson this season, but that is partially why Robinson’s prop line is only 1.5 catches. Robinson already has 46 snaps on passing downs this season, which is more than half the number he had in 12 games last year. The pass game role is there, and the volume will follow.

Haason Reddick over 0.75 sacks (-115 at DraftKings)

Haason Reddick is off to a slow start for the second consecutive season, but at least this year he has a good reason (even if he won’t call it an excuse). He has been dealing with a thumb injury and wearing a cast on his hand for the first 3 games, which has made it harder to execute his pass rush moves. But this week he got the cast removed and will “really be free” for the first time this season.

Despite his slow start, Reddick finished 2nd in the league with 16 sacks last year, making it his 3rd consecutive season with double-digit sacks. He became the first player in NFL history to have 10+ sacks for three different teams in three consecutive seasons. To say he is overdue for his first sack of the season would be an understatement.

After failing to record a sack in his first two games last year, Reddick had at least 1 sack in 13 of his next 16 games. His first sack of the season last year came against these same Commanders.

Reddick will be lined up primarily against Washington RT Andrew Wylie, who allowed 9 sacks last season with the Chiefs, tied for the 3rd most among all tackles. That happened while protecting Patrick Mahomes, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at eluding pressure. Now Wylie is protecting Sam Howell, who has been the worst quarterback in the league this season at avoiding sacks, per PFF.

The Commanders have allowed 19 sacks already this season, 6 more than any other team and the most that any team has allowed after their first 3 games since the 2006 Raiders. Wylie has allowed 3 of those sacks, which is tied for the second most among tackles this season.

We were hoping to get this prop bet at plus odds, but it’s not surprising it’s at -115 considering all the above factors, and it’s still a very good bet at those odds.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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