Commanders Vs. Bears (10/13/22) Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Strategy + SGP Picks

By Jacob Wayne | Oct 13, 2022, 9:09am

It’s hard to believe we’re already into Week 6 of the NFL season, but we’ve arrived, and we have an intriguing matchup between the Commanders and Bears on tap. While it might not be a barnburner between playoff teams, that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the betting markets. This article will focus on building a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for the Thursday Night Football game. You can check out our matchup preview and player prop page for further analysis on the game. Let’s get to work.

*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

The total for this game could be found over 40 points earlier in the week, but it’s down to 37.5 or 38 points in most places. I took the under at 40 points, but in this SGP, I’m going to try to play a contrarian angle and include the over here. 38 points simply isn’t a high bar for two offenses that at least have some playmaking talent, and 58% of the handle at DraftKings is on the over in this game. Let’s see if we can find some correlation with that side.

I was hoping for better odds on Brian Robinson to score a touchdown in this game, but he’s priced at +200 on FanDuel behind only David Montgomery. Still, he already out-touched Antonio Gibson last week and is going to quickly become the team’s RB1. With his big frame and physicality, he’ll be their go-to back in the red zone when they get down there. Let’s root for the comeback story here and go with Robinson to score.

I’ll also be adding Curtis Samuel to this SGP with his receiving yardage prop over 48.5. I included his receptions prop over 4.5 in my player props article, and I prefer that approach, but this is a solid number. Samuel is averaging 56.2 receiving yards per game this year, and the Commanders will be without Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas for the second straight game, leaving more targets for Samuel.

On the Bears’ side, I’m doing something crazy. I’m taking the over on Justin Fields’ passing yardage. I know, I know. But the Bears will have to throw the ball if they want to compete in this game as the Commanders are far better against the run than they are against the pass. They rank 6th in DVOA against the run and 29th against the pass. Fields has hit the over on this line in two straight games, and I’ll bet on that continuing.

Finally, I’m adding Justin Fields’ favorite receiver Darnell Mooney to the fold. Mooney has 5+ targets in each of his last three games, and he now has a 23.9% target share for the season. Mooney has averaged 56.3 receiving yards per game over his last three games. Justin Fields has been passing the ball more over the last couple of weeks and the Commanders’ secondary is a mess, so let’s bet on Mooney having a good game.

Put it all together, and we have an exciting SGP that could have some serious legs on Thursday Night Football:

Over 37.5 Total Points (-115)
Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Curtis Samuel Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Justin Fields Over 170.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Darnell Mooney Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Full SGP Odds: +1855 ($10 wins $185.57)

Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.