Get Dallas Cowboys Vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (1/22/23) matchup
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Dallas Cowboys Vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
In one of the preeminent longtime NFL rivalries, the Cowboys and 49ers will renew hostilities on Sunday in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player props to target in this game.
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Brock Purdy under 239.5 Passing Yards (-120 BetMGM)
Buy low, sell high. Basic economic concepts. Here, they apply to Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. The hype around Purdy isn’t necessarily surprising, but it’s unfounded. I’m hard pressed to remember a quarterback supported by this much outstanding coaching and skill position talent.
Purdy also has barely been tested to this point. He’s faced one defense that ranks top ten in EPA or DVOA, and the average defense he’s faced is ranked 20th in both EPA and DVOA. Now, he faces a Dallas defense that ranked second in both metrics and led the NFL in pressure rate.
Despite the easy matchups, Purdy has only gone over this yardage mark in two of his seven games. Kyle Shanahan will want his team to lean on the run game and defense to avoid putting Purdy in adverse situations, and I don’t anticipate a high level of passing volume against this stout defense.
Dak Prescott Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120 BetMGM)
In the last few weeks, Dak Prescott has been running the ball more, as he has 16+ rushing yards in five of his last six games. After clearing the five attempt mark in just one of his first six games, he’s gone over that number in four of his last five. His mobility has become much more of a factor for this offense.
The Cowboys’ offensive line will be in a tough spot this week, particularly on the interior. Tyler Biadasz and Connor McGovern combined to allow seven pressures against the Buccaneers last week, and they’ll struggle against Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw here while extra attention is paid to Nick Bosa on the edge.
With that pressure bearing down on him, I expect Prescott to scramble a bit more often. The Niners allowed Geno Smith to run for 28 yards last week, and like Smith, Prescott’s rushing won’t be top of mind for this defense as there are bigger fish to fry.
Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Dalton Schultz has become the clear second-leading target in this offense, and he has a 21.1% target share since Week 14. Last week, he was integral in the win over the Buccaneers as he finished with seven catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. That type of performance likely won’t be repeated, but this is another good spot.
The 49ers play a high degree of zone with no blitz, and that leaves them vulnerable to tight ends at times and they rank 27th in catch rate and 24th in receiving yards per game allowed to the position since Week 14. Schultz has a 21.2% target share against zone defense.
The Cowboys will need to pass the ball early and often as they won’t be consistently successful running the ball against this defense, and CeeDee Lamb and Schultz will be the top two targets. Consider Schultz’s touchdown prop at +250 odds on FanDuel, as well.