Week 6: Monsters and Kicker Obsession

My parents didn’t forbid me from much. I got my dad’s diet soda whenever I wanted it. No one stopped me from binging on Airheads, that sweet, sweet nectar. There were no limits on the amount of time I could spend staring like the undead into the TV. I could stay up late. I could come in for dinner when I was ready.

Horror movies were a different story entirely. It was made clear through parental edict — the kind where they use your middle name to drive home the fear — that I was under no circumstances allowed to watch horror flicks. No slashers, no zombies, no psychos, no ghosts, no ghouls. There would be no exceptions, I was told as my parents constructed my tree of forbidden fruit, the faces of monsters like Freddy Krueger and Jason Voorhees hanging from its branches, taunting me.

I’d sometimes sneak into my cousin’s basement while she and her older friends took in the latest ridiculous Elm Street sequel, only to be whisked away as if by the CIA. A black bag over my head was the only thing missing as my mom or dad would enforce the horror-free zone in my mind’s eye. A lecture would ensue, and my will to see the on-screen terror of the late-80s and early-90s was slowly and dutifully broken. Eventually I stopped trying.

But repression breeds obsession. Today I own every chapter in every major 80s slasher franchise. I have a collection of comic books filling in the Halloween series’ conical gaps (and I hate comics). I’ve written tens of thousands of words of unfortunate Friday the 13th and Halloween fan fiction. I’m an early retirement away from spending my remaining days attending horror conventions with other freaks and geeks. I have engorged myself on the forbidden fruit from the tree of my parents’ construction. It was delicious and campy.

What, you might ask, does this have to do with kickers? Glad you asked. Or didn’t. Whatever.

Even attempting to analyze kicker matchups is anathema to many in the fantasy football community, whatever that might be. I love the dismissal of the kicker position as meaningless and impossible to predict because it makes me want to get better — to do better — at forecasting kickers for seasonal and DFS purposes. The pushback against kicker analysis is largely why I write this weekly column. While I find the kicker haters (and losers) baffling on several levels, I want their scoffing and disgust. Give it to me. It is my fuel. Repress away. I will obsess.

There are plenty of smart fantasy writers doing the lord’s work, by the bye, in projecting and analyzing weekly kicker plays. For that I’m grateful. On to Week 6 kicker options for the FanDuel main slate.

High-Priced Plays

Matt Bryant (ATL) vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,200): Many, even the most ardent haters and losers, are saying the Falcons will have an easy time putting points on the board against the abomination we lovingly call the Miami Dolphins. I’m forced to agree with the various haters and losers, as Atlanta is an 11-point home favorite, sporting one of the week’s highest implied totals. We want kickers on teams that should have a grand old time matriculating the football via the air, and that’s just what we have with the Falcons against a Miami secondary that managed to give up 250 passing yards to the Jets in Week 3. Enemy passers are completing 73.4 percent of their passes against the Dolphins. Miami allowed three field goal attempts in each of its first three games of 2017. Pay no attention to Week 5 against the abysmal Matt Cassel-led — Colin Kaepernick-less — Titans’ offense. Bryant has multiple field goal tries in three of four 2017 contests. His Week 6 fantasy ceiling makes me want to attempt a backflip and break my neck. No regrets.

Brandon McManus (DEN) vs. New York Giants ($4,900): The Week 6 conditions are more than favorable for one Brandon McManus, whose family surname — McGoatus — was butchered on Ellis Island generations ago. The literal offspring of goats faces off against a decimated Big Blue squad giving up the third most field goal tries and sixth most fantasy production to opposing kickers. McManus, who notched a goaty 2.78 field goal tries in 2016 Denver wins, has multiple attempts in all three 2017 Broncos victories. Three kickers this season have attempted at least three field goals against the worst New York NFL team. I’m not sure if McManus’ Week 6 floor is more appealing than his ceiling, but suffice it to say that he’s as safe a kicking option as it gets in our little game. The G-Men are allowing the fifth most schedule-adjusted kicker production through the season’s first month.

Mid-Priced Play

Dustin Hopkins (WAS) vs. San Francisco 49ers ($4,700): Probably it’s a tepid, bordering on cold take to say that Hopkins is the most mispriced kicker of Week 6. Let us count the ways in which Hopkins is a stupid-good FanDuel main slate option: only five defenses have been gouged for more weekly passing yards than the Niners, Washington is a 10-point home favorite, and only the Raiders are giving up more field goal tries than San Francisco through five weeks. This isn’t a one-off: we’ll continue to target the 49ers in this kicker-centric space, as they give up the second most schedule-adjusted points to opposing kickers. Hopkins has three field goal attempts in both Washington wins, and has tried at least two field goals in each of their past three games. Don’t play Hopkins with the confidence of someone who buys presidential candidate coffee mugs; deploy him with the unassailable certainty of someone with the bumper sticker of a failed presidential wannabe.

Low-Priced Play

Jason Myers (JAC) vs. Los Angeles Rams ($4,500): Am I pushing Myers on the people because his name is a mix of my two favorite slasher flick monsters and this week ends with a Friday the 13th? Perhaps. But not entirely. The Rams are quietly becoming a decent kicker matchup: four of five kickers have attempted multiple field goals against LA this season, with three reaching double digit fantasy points. The Rams aren’t exactly being bludgeoned via the air — not that it matters against Blake Bortles — but they are allowing a hearty 343 total yards per game. Myers, whose 82.9 career field goal rate leaves something to be desired, has averaged 2.84 field goal tries in six Jacksonville victories dating back to the start of 2016. Luckily for those who have to go minimum price at kicker in Week 6, the Jaguars are 2.5-point home favorites against LA. Myers gets the edge on fellow minimum-priced kicker Phil Dawson, whose Cardinals are home dogs. Give me the kicker with the good game script. Please and thank you.

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Denny Carter is a staple in the fantasy football world of journalism. He hosts a fantasy football podcast call LateRoundQB. He wrote the book, "How To Think Like a Fantasy Football Winner and his work has been featured on New York Times, Fifth Down, Rotoworld, Rotogrinders, 4for4. Denny has unbreakable love for NFL Kickers.

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