Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/13/22)

By Jacob Wayne | Jun 18, 2024, 4:51pm

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks

This season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers is set to close above a 3-point home underdog for the first time in his career. There’s plenty of value to be found in the player props department for this game, and I’m excited to break down my top looks here. You can use the Cowboys vs. Packers player prop search tool above to find the best odds in the market. Let’s get to work.

Robert Tonyan Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)

Injuries have hit what was already a limited receiving corps for Green Bay as Randall Cobb and Romeo Doubs are out while Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard are listed as questionable. As a result, I’m expecting the Packers to lean on their running backs and tight ends in the passing game this week.

Quietly, Robert Tonyan has been consistently solid for the Packers, and he’s gone over 27.5 receiving yards in four straight games. While Marcedes Lewis still gets snaps, Green Bay could play a fair amount of 2 tight end formations this week given the Cowboys’ elite pass rush.

The Cowboys have been highly successful against wide receivers this season, but they’re a bit more vulnerable against tight ends. They rank 17th in DVOA against the position, allowing 8 catches for 41.6 yards per game. The Packers will run the ball often this week, but look for Tonyan to be a big part of their passing game.

CeeDee Lamb Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115 PointsBet)

CeeDee Lamb is seeing a monstrous 30.8% team target share this season, and while Michael Gallup’s return will reduce that a touch, there is one big positive. Lamb can now return to the slot with Gallup on the perimeter, and he has played a majority of his snaps out of the slot over the last three weeks.

While Jaire Alexander, Green Bay’s best cornerback, is fully capable of playing out of the slot, he’s played 87% of his snaps out wide this season per PFF. The Packers don’t tend to shadow the opponent’s top receiver with Alexander, and it shows with their ranking of 18th in pass defense DVOA against WR1s this season.

Lamb has gone over this number in three straight games and in six of his last seven, so I’m surprised that it’s being listed this low. Be sure to shop around, though, as PointsBet has it priced at 60.5 yards while most other books are at 64.5 yards. Lamb could crack 100 yards for the first time this season this week.

Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110 DraftKings)

I like the idea of playing Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yardage prop this week as he should be healthier off the bye week and is facing a beautiful matchup in cold weather. The Packers rank 31st in run defense DVOA, 29th in run defense success rate, and 24th in yards per carry allowed.

However, the prop for his yardage isn’t listed on sportsbooks yet. The last time Elliott was in Green Bay, he saw 30 touches for 174 yards and averaged 5.8 YPC, and he’s averaged 111.7 yards in three career games against the Packers. However, he’s only scored one touchdown over that span.

I expect that to change this week. Elliott has a team-leading 11 red-zone carries despite missing the team’s last game, and he’ll clearly be the preferred option in that area. The Packers have allowed just under one rushing touchdown per game, and I’ll bank on that score going to Zeke here.

Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.