Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Player Props & Picks (10/9/22)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks
Two of the top contenders in the NFC square off this week as the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) visit the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) on Sunday, October 9 at SoFi Stadium. Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush will make this fourth consecutive start in place of Dak Prescott, but Rush has played well while leading the Cowboys to a three-game winning streak. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is dealing with an elbow injury of his own which has hampered his play early in the season. How will these QBs fare in this game, and which members of their supporting cast will they rely on? Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like best in this Cowboys vs. Rams matchup.
Matthew Stafford over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
Stafford leads the league in interceptions with six through four weeks. Part of the reason for that is the pressure Stafford has been under due to the Rams’ poor offensive line, which has forced him to make throws on the run or thrown off his timing. The Cowboys’ pass rush led by Micah Parsons is second in the league in sacks and second in pressure rate, and they are going to force Stafford to make some rushed throws.
The Cowboys defense has averaged one interception per game so far this season and cornerback Trevon Diggs led the league with 11 interceptions last year and has two so far this year. The question isn’t whether Stafford will throw a pick in this game – it’s how many? Take the over on 0.5.
Allen Robinson under 38.5 receiving yards (-135)
Simply put, Allen Robinson has been the biggest disappointment of any offseason acquisition so far this season. His season totals of nine catches for 95 yards and one touchdown read like an average day for his teammate Cooper Kupp. He’s barely caught more yards than Kupp’s receiving prop line of 92.5 this week (more on that below).
Whether it be due to a lack of separation or just a lack of chemistry, Stafford just is not looking Robinson’s way. Robinson has run a route on 92.7% of Stafford’s dropbacks, but he has just a 12.1% target share.
The Cowboys have the sixth-best passing defense in the league this year, and I would not bet on Robinson producing a get-right game against this unit. Fade Robinson’s receiving props until he gives you a reason not to.
Cooper Kupp over 92.5 receiving yards (-115)
I got burned in week 3 when I picked Kupp over 97.5 receiving yards against the Cardinals, and he finished with his lowest receiving total since week 14 of the 2020 season. My logic at the time:
“Kupp hit the over on his receiving yards prop line in 15 of his 17 games last season, and in his first two games so far this season. He averaged 114.5 receiving yards per game in his historic 2021 season and he is averaging 118 yards through two games this season. … Normally I would be scared off by a massive line of 97.5 receiving yards, but it doesn’t scare me to bet on Kupp.”
Well, I’m not scared to go back to the well (or the cup, if you will) on Kupp. That Cardinals game was an aberration, and after a whopping 19 (!!) targets in week 4, Kupp remains as safe and consistent a wide receiver as there is in the NFL. Kupp racked up those targets last week in part because Stafford was constantly under pressure against the 49ers defense, and when he’s under pressure he likes his safety blanket in Kupp. He’s going to be under pressure again in this game, and he’s going to continue targeting Kupp.
The matchup against Diggs doesn’t scare me either, because while Diggs does make big plays, he also takes a lot of risks to make those plays, and that is bound to backfire on him a few times against Kupp. Count on Kupp to deliver for you with over 92.5 receiving yards.
