Dallas Cowboys Vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)
Dallas Cowboys Vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Picks
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup in the NFL in Week 11, the Dallas Cowboys travel to face the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings. The betting angles for this game are highly intriguing, and I’m personally on the Cowboys ML and the over in the game. Those angles will be reflected in my player prop selections below.
For more coverage on the spread and over/under, you can explore our matchup previews and best bets articles, as well as our YouTube channels. You can also use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for the wager you’d like to place. Let’s get to work.
CeeDee Lamb Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BetMGM)
The Cowboys have crafted an elite role for CeeDee Lamb with a league-leading 31.1% team target share, and it finally paid off last week with his first 100-yard performance of the season. Lamb finished the game with 11 catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns, and I believe he has every opportunity to continue that momentum into this game.
The Vikings’ pass defense has struggled week after week due to their questionable shell coverage tactics, and it plays right into the hands of elite wide receivers. They rank 27th in pass defense DVOA against WR1s per Football Outsiders, and it hasn’t helped that top cornerback Cameron Dantzler has been on Injured Reserve.
Minnesota also struggles to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks as they rank just 22nd in pressure rate, and despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the league, their pass coverage often struggles to hold up as they rank 25th in pass defense success rate overall.
Over the past month, the Vikings have allowed Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle to average 137.2 receiving yards against them, and I don’t see any reason why Lamb can’t be next in line to have a monstrous game against this defense.
Dalvin Cook Longest Rush (-105 DraftKings)
One week after Dalvin Cook had the longest carry of his career – an 81-yard house call against the Bills – why not go back to the well? The Cowboys run defense has been struggling lately as they’ve allowed 200+ rushing yards in back-to-back games for the first time in franchise history.
Dallas is allowing 1.64 yards before contact per run, the sixth-highest rate in the league, and Dalvin Cook can take advantage with some long runs in this game. He’s ripped off runs over 18.5 yards in three of his last four games, and they’ve often been much longer at 53, 30, and the 81-yard run last week.
The Cowboys are specifically struggling to contain explosive runs this season as they’re allowing the seventh-most yards per carry but rank eighth in overall rushing success rate allowed and 11th in run defense DVOA. When they aren’t allowing long runs to be broken off, they’re a fairly solid run defense overall.
However, they’ve allowed a runner to go over this prop in three straight weeks with Aaron Jones (30), Khalil Herbert (36), and Jamaal Williams (20) all ripping off long runs. Dalvin Cook is the next in line this week, and he should have a great game overall, so feel free to play his other props as well if you’d like.
Dak Prescott Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-120 BetMGM)
Could this be Dak Prescott’s first real breakout game of 2022? With the way the Vikings have been defending the pass lately, I’m inclined to say yes. They’ve allowed Josh Allen (330), Kyler Murray (326), Jared Goff (277), and Jalen Hurts (333) to all blow past this passing yardage total this season.
After missing several weeks with a hand injury, Prescott has been shaking off the rust, and he’s averaging just 214 passing yards in his four games this year. However, there’s been a clear upward trajectory, and he’s coming off a season-high 265 passing yards last week against the Packers.
As always, make sure you do some odds shopping, as the difference for this prop in particular is drastic. BetMGM has the best line with 247.5 yards at -120 odds, and FanDuel has it priced as high as 255.5 yards at -114 odds. I would still play it at that number on FanDuel and likely up to around 259.5, but make sure you look for the best line in the market.
