Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots Player Props (10/17/21)

The Cowboys are off to a hot 4-1 start and appear to be one of the actual Super Bowl contenders in the NFC thanks to a healthy Dak Prescott, a full complement of offensive talent, and much-improved defense in Dan Quinn’s first year as defensive coordinator. The Patriots, meanwhile, narrowly escaped Houston with a win last week and are struggling to compete on both ends of the ball. With due respect to Bill Belichick, a 4-point line seems generous to New England. Regardless, there are plenty of great prop bets available with incredible value.

Mac Jones Over 267.5 Passing Yards

The Patriots’ rookie quarterback is starting to get more comfortable with the pace of play in the NFL, and he’ll be relied upon if New England is going to keep up with a high-powered Dallas offense. The Cowboys have allowed 311 passing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL, and Mike Glennon even put up 196 passing yards in relief of Daniel Jones after coming into the game very late in the second quarter. The Patriots’ lack of explosive plays has limited their offensive viability, but Jones has surpassed this passing yardage number in two of his past three games, and I expect him to get there again this week.

Hunter Henry Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

Like I mentioned in the Mac Jones prop section, I’m expecting the Patriots to be playing from behind in this game, resulting in larger-than-average passing volume for the offense. Hunter Henry has emerged as perhaps Jones’s favorite target, and he has averaged 6.3 targets per game over the past three weeks. The Patriots have two critical tight ends in Henry and Jonnu Smith, but Henry has run routes on 79.4% of his snaps per Pro Football Focus as Smith has filled a blocking role more often. Henry is the more significant presence in the passing game, and he has averaged 43.2 receiving yards per game.

Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions

Sportsbooks have yet to fully adjust to the impact Dalton Schultz is making as the Cowboys’ tight end has exactly six catches in each of the team’s last three games. Despite Blake Jarwin returning to the field, Schultz has picked up right where he left off last year and has been an integral part of his team’s offensive attack. The Patriots don’t profile as an especially great matchup, but Schultz is far too involved to fade at this point. Schultz has played on 69+% of snaps in every game this season, and that isn’t going to change anytime soon.

Cedrick Wilson Under 2.5 Receptions

When Michael Gallup went down to an injury earlier this year, I expected Cedrick Wilson to pick up essential playing time in his absence as the WR3 for Dallas. Instead, the Cowboys have transitioned to more 12 personnel with both Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin on the field simultaneously. As a result, Wilson has surpassed 2.5 receptions just once all year, and it happened in Week 1 when Gallup was still healthy. The Cowboys won’t need to have a crazy passing game this week to win, and Wilson will continue to underwhelm in a part-time role.