Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints (9/29/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines
Last Week’s Results: 6-8
All Time Results: 26-16, +8.16 Units
Contents
Dallas -2.5 @ New Orleans Saints (-109) – .9 Units
Dallas -3 @ New Orleans Saints (+106) – .1 Units
Bucking conventional gambling wisdom again and taking a marquee road favorite on Sunday Night Football.
Major match-up advantages here for the Cowboys. The Cowboys run the ball better than any team in the league and the Saints have been terrible against the run to begin the season. According to Football Outsider’s DVOA Metric, which accesses a teams rate of success for any given play, the Cowboys have the #1 rushing attack in the NFL, while the Saints have the 28th ranked rush defense.
The Cowboys offensive line is healthy again and is being employed with ruthless precision by the Cowboys new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. His quick passing attack has helped Prescott improve measurably into being one of the top 10 quarterbacks in football. Because of their easy schedule so far, Ezekiel Elliot has not been overworked through three games. Dallas has been spelling Elliot regularly with standout rookie running-back, Tony Pollard. For a big game like this, look for Zeke to be unleashed.
On the other side of the ball, the speed of the Cowboys linebacking core can contain Alvin Kamara better than almost any other team in the league. We saw this last year. In Week 13 last season, Dallas held Kamara to only 36 yards rushing and 72 all-purpose yards, tied for his second-lowest output of the season.
The Dallas’s linebackers will cheat up to the line of scrimmage on Kamara and dare Teddy Bridgewater to beat them over the top. If his recent play is any indication, Bridgewater will not be able to punish the Cowboys vertically. Bridgewater has averaged less than 5.5 yards per attempt in 82 regular-season passes since his 2016 knee injury. For comparison, Josh Rosen was 33rd among qualified QBs last season when he averaged 5.8 yards per attempt.
Last week against the Saints, Bridgewater only completed three passes that traveled more than 5 yards down the field. Conversely, he had 5 completions that were caught behind the line of scrimmage.
What About the Line?
Many professional and semi-professionals would never touch the Cowboys in this spot just based on the Line. The only reason to put this line at 2.5 instead of 3 is to encourage Cowboys bettors to back up the truck. I agree: this line does encourage Cowboys money. I’m betting these sportsbooks are not omniscient beings. I’m betting their wrong and will lose a lot on this game.
The Cowboys are a very public team, but it has been so long since they’ve been a top 5 NFL team – maybe not since the 1990’s – I think the market has a built-in, unwarranted skepticism against Dallas which will take a few more weeks to dissipate.
Granted, there is a stark contrast in these two teams’ competition so far this season. The Cowboys Opponents are 1-5 vs. other teams, while the Saints Opponents are 6-0. Still looking on both the sides of the ball the Cowboys are far and away the better team. Dallas is second in the league with a +2.1 Yards Per Play differential. The Saints are 25th in that category with a -0.8 YPP.
I don’t worry about a letdown spot here for the Cowboys here because this game presents such an opportunity to silence the critics. For Dak Prescott, this game could expedite a $150 million contract. Much like last year’s Chiefs, I feel like this Cowboys team is a freight train just beginning to gather momentum.
On the other hand, the Saints may be in line for a letdown spot. The team is coming back from a 10-day West Coast road trip where they played high-intensity games against the Rams & Seahawks. After an emotional first win without their talisman Drew Brees, the Saints may relax midweek just slightly.
Teddy Bridgewater gave a heartfelt, emotional speech of appreciation in the locker room after they beat the Seahawks. It clearly meant a lot to him and to the team to earn that win. There is only so long that a group can maintain maximum motivation. Returning home, I’m betting they take their foot off the gas just slightly. Conversely, their competition has been waiting for this moment to go full throttle.
Panthers to Win NFC South +500 – .2 Units
I know, I know, small sample size. But Kyle Allen might just be good. Allen has had a 90+ QBR in both his career starts (2-0). The chances of that happening randomly are 1 in 100 for an average QB (10%*10%). Whether it’s his weapons lifting him or if he’s just sneaky talented, he’s been extremely effective with this team. Carolina has scored 71 points in Allen’s first 120 minutes under center. The Panthers have very winnable games over the next month and could be in the driver seat in this division by the time Drew Brees returns for New Orleans.
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