Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (10/16/22)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
I’ll be honest, my betting strategy for this game, more so than any game so far this season, will entirely hinge around live betting. There are two scenarios that can play out, and I’m going to break them down before I discuss a couple of player props that I would consider before the game begins:
Scenario #1: The Eagles are averaging 21.2 first-half points and only 5.8 second-half points per game this year, and they haven’t been nearly as strong in the second half. However, the Cowboys have had a halftime lead in all four of their wins with Cooper Rush this season. The worst case scenario for Dallas is getting down by multiple scores, as their weak offensive line can’t hold up against Philadelphia’s pass rush with Rush not built for those types of scenarios.
If the Eagles build an early lead, attack any kind of rushing yardage props for them. Miles Sanders is set at 65.5 rushing yards for this game, and I’d bet the over up to 80 yards in that game script. Dallas has a weak run defense that ranks 25th in EPA and last in defending explosive runs despite facing the sixth-easiest schedule of rushing offenses. If Cooper Rush hasn’t thrown a pick in the game, look to play his interception prop at plus money in this live betting scenario, as well.
Scenario #2: The Eagles’ offensive line has been outstanding this year as they rank seventh in pressure allowed. However, they have faced four pass-rush units that rank outside the top-ten in generating pressure. Dallas ranks first in the NFL in pressure rate this season while blitzing at a below-average rate. Jalen Hurts’ stats have suffered across the board under pressure. Check out the splits below:
Under pressure: -0.48 EPA/att, 28% success rate, 5.3 YPA, 42% completion rate
No pressure: +0.37 EPA/att, 52% success rate, 9.6 YPA, 76% completion rate
The Eagles could be in trouble against this pass rush if they don’t build an early lead and can’t lean on their run game, particularly with their banged-up offensive line. In that situation, I’ll be looking to play a live Dallas line, and I’ll also be looking at props for Dallas Goedert. His aDOT of 3.3 yards is significantly lower than the team’s other top pass-catching weapons, and he will be relied upon as a short-area outlet if Hurts is in trouble in the pocket.
You can follow my Twitter @wayne_sports_ to see if I end up placing live player props based on the situations above. However, you’re not here for my hypothetical live bets, you’re here for bets you can place before the game starts and root for all throughout. Let’s get to a couple of player props that I think have solid pre-game value.
Noah Brown Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
While the early season success of Noah Brown was fun, his role in the offense will be diminished with the return of Michael Gallup to the lineup. Gallup saw five targets last week, for a 31% share, and Brown dropped to two (12%). Brown still played more snaps as Gallup is recovering from the ACL injury, but there’s no doubt that Gallup is the WR2 for this team.
With more mouths to feed in the passing game, Noah Brown will likely see a diminished impact in this game regardless of the game script. The Eagles have an outstanding passing defense that ranks third in DVOA and first in yards per pass allowed. The outside cornerback tandem of Darius Slay and James Bradberry might be the best in the NFL.
Brown also sees about half of his snaps in the slot, where he will be matched up with Avonte Maddox. Slay and Bradberry have been elite on the outside, but Maddox has been much improved, and he only allowed 37.3 yards per game in the first three weeks of the season before suffering an injury. There’s nowhere for Brown to hide against this defense.
Miles Sanders Longest Run Over 15.5 Yards (-120 DraftKings)
After telling everyone over the offseason not to draft him in their fantasy football leagues, Miles Sanders has had an excellent start to the year. Because of course he has. Sanders has been part of a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, but he’s been the best of the bunch as he’s averaging 4.8 YPC and has already scored three touchdowns.
As I mentioned in the lengthy introduction, the Cowboys are the worst defense in the NFL at allowing explosive running plays despite facing the sixth-easiest schedule of rushing offenses thus far. Scott is back this week, which could eat into Sanders’ volume a bit, so I’m isolating this play to just needing one long carry of 16+ yards.
The Eagles’ offensive line ranks tenth in adjusted line yards, and Sanders has plenty of juice. He had a 24-yard carry against the Cowboys last year in his one game against them, and I like betting on him to hit that number again. If the game script favors the Eagles in the second half, I might be making a live play on his total rushing yards, as well.
