Get Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers player prop picks & odds for the (01/16/2023) matchup.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
The finale of the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend is a Monday Night Football showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) and the Dallas Cowboys (12-5). Despite having a losing record – the first of Tom Brady’s career – and four fewer wins than the Cowboys, the Buccaneers host this game by virtue of winning the NFC South division.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites in this game with an over/under set at 45.5. This is expected to be one of the most exciting and competitive games of the weekend. Which players are poised for a big playoff moment, and which ones might disappoint?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Cowboys vs. Buccaneers matchup.
Tom Brady over 42.5 pass attempts (-104 at Caesars Sportsbook)
With a banged up offensive line, the Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball all season. Their rushing offense ranks 30th in DVOA, while the Cowboys’ run defense ranks 5th. The Bucs are going to ask Tom Brady to put the team on his shoulders – literally on his right throwing shoulder.
Brady has thrown at least 43 passes in 11 games this season, and he did so in six straight games and nine out of 10 games after week six (ignoring the week 18 game in which he only played half the snaps).
Brady has led the league in pass attempts in each of the last two seasons, both of which represented new career highs for him. His 733 pass attempts this season are 34 more than the next most prolific passer, Justin Herbert.
Those trends are not going to change in the playoffs. Brady might throw it over 50 times in this game.
Rachaad White under 37.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
If we expect the Buccaneers’ offense to be very pass-heavy in this game, then it stands to reason that we also expect a low-volume rushing attack.
White had a solid rookie season for the Bucs, but he gained at least 38 rushing yards just four times. All four of those games came in a five-game stretch from weeks 10 to 15, which coincided with starting running back Leonard Fournette leaving a game early and missing the next one with a hip injury.
Fournette and White split the snaps and touches pretty evenly for much of the season, but as recently as week 16, Fournette out-snapped White 49-29 and out-touched him 29-11. I expect the Bucs to lean more on “Playoff Lenny” than their rookie running back in this matchup, especially considering the veteran back had his best game of the season against the Cowboys in week 1 with 127 yards on 21 carries.
On the other hand, I might be interested in the +106 odds on over 2.5 receptions by White. He had at least three catches in 10 games this season, all of which came in a 13-game span once he started getting more involved in the offense in week four. Brady loves to get rid of the ball quickly and often finds his running backs when doing so. That will be especially true this week against a strong Cowboys’ pass rush led by Micah Parsons.
CeeDee Lamb over 75.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Lamb was more like a lion this season, especially after Dak Prescott returned from his injury in week 8. From that point forward, Lamb hit the over on his receiving yards prop seven times in 10 games while averaging 88 yards per game.
The Buccaneers’ pass defense finished the season ranked 10th in yards allowed and 15th in DVOA. However, they were much better in the first half of the year than the second. Since week 10 they have allowed 221.4 passing yards per game, a 65% completion rate and a 97.5 QB rating, all ranking in the bottom third of the league.
I hesitated with this pick at first because of Prescott’s recent propensity for turning the ball over. That could have the Cowboys calling a more conservative offensive game plan and leaning more on running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. But Elliott and Pollard have been heavily involved all season, and that hasn’t slowed down Lamb. I expect another big game from him this week.