Dallas Cowboys Vs. Tennessee Titans NFL Player Props & Picks (12/29/22)

Dallas Cowboys Vs. Tennessee Titans Player Prop Picks

This game carried plenty of intrigue heading into the season with cross-conference opponents, both of whom made the postseason last year, and even a few weeks ago the spread for this game was close to a pick ‘em.

However, the Titans are playing this game without nine offensive starters and eight defensive starters, so they’re in rough shape. It’s why you’ve seen the spread continue to climb in favor of the Cowboys as a road underdog here.

You must keep in mind the potential blowout here when you’re selecting player props for this primetime game, especially on the Tennessee side as their season won’t change based on the result here. Everything hinges on their Week 18 game against the Jaguars.

In this article, I’ll break down some player props worth considering. You can check out our YouTube channel for further consideration of this game. Use the player prop search tool above to compare odds for props from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Dak Prescott Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Since Dak Prescott returned from his injury in Week 7, the Cowboys rank top four in dropback EPA and success rate. Prescott has been the third-ranked quarterback in adjusted EPA and the best in the league in success rate over that span. He’s been over this yardage number in seven of his last eight games.

Over the past month, the Titans have allowed the third-highest dropback EPA in the league. As a result, they’re now allowing 279.6 passing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL. What was the 11th-ranked pass defense by DVOA last season has fallen to 27th.

The Titans had allowed three straight passers to go over 300 yards prior to last week’s game against the Texans where Davis Mills was somewhat held in check, and Prescott is fully capable of hitting that 300-yard mark.

However, the question that you’ll have to answer is how much Prescott will actually play. It’s worth noting that even as the Cowboys blasted the Colts with a 33-0 fourth quarter to deliver a 35-point win a few weeks ago, Prescott never ceded snaps to Cooper Rush.

Prescott can arguably hit the over on this prop in three quarters, but there’s the added risk of a potential blowout where he doesn’t play much in the second half. You’ll have to decide how comfortable you are with that possibility.

Malik Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+550 BetMGM)

This is the perfect type of game to play some longshot touchdown scorer props given the expected lopsided game script, and Malik Davis is intriguing. Tony Pollard isn’t practicing this week, and with the playoffs on the horizon, it would make sense for the Cowboys to rest Pollard on a short week against this absentee Titans team.

Davis, a rookie UDFA out of Florida, is listed as the third back on the depth chart for Dallas. He’s played sparingly this season, but he’s looked solid in bursts and has forced two missed tackles with three 10+ yard runs per PFF. If this game gets out of hand, he could see a lot of snaps against the Tennessee backup defensive players.

Davis has a few red-zone carries this year, and he scored a touchdown in Week 13 when the game was well out of reach. From a pure odds comparison standpoint, you can get this at +550 on BetMGM and +250 on DraftKings. That’s a wide gap that’s well worth considering.

Treylon Burks Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM)

After starting to break out with 181 total receiving yards in November games against the Packers and Bengals, Treylon Burks suffered a scary concussion the following week against the Eagles. He returned to play last week, but he only saw two targets and didn’t catch a pass. However, I believe he’ll make an impact in this game.

First of all, the Titans need to see if Malik Willis can throw the ball. He’s averaging just 78 passing yards across his three starts this season, but that won’t be enough for the Titans to beat the Jaguars next week. They’ll also want to see what they have in him from a future-oriented standpoint after investing draft capital in him.

While garbage time might preclude some Cowboys’ players from making an impact, I expect Willis to be in the game for the entire night, and he’ll be attempting to build chemistry with his top receiver ahead of that pivotal Week 18 game. In what looks to be a perfect game script, hitting the over on this prop doesn’t seem overwhelmingly difficult.