• Broncos Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021: +6,000
• Broncos Win Total: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)
• Broncos Odds to Win Division: +1,100
• Broncos Odds to Win Conference: +3,000
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
Temper Mile High Expectations for the Broncos in 2020
Even though Denver won seven games last season, some oddsmakers think they may be hard-pressed to match that total. The opening line on the Broncos win total points directly at seven being the current benchmark.
With nearly half the starting lineup on offense being either first or second year players, we wonder if seven wins isn’t leaning towards mile high expectations in Mile High. Here’s how we shake out the Super Bowl odds for Denver, and why we think their strengths and weaknesses making them a shaky bet to even avoid the cellar in the AFC West.
Denver Broncos Odds to Win Super Bowl LV
If a bettor was looking for a long shot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next February, Denver would certainly meet the criteria. There are only four teams in the NFL with worse odds of winning the 55th Super Bowl. Here are four preseason odds posted on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Broncos and Raiders have matching odds of Super Bowl irrelevance at +3,000. Even more ominous might be the gap between the bottom six odds for winning the big game and the rest of the NFL.
Only the Houston Texans at +2,400 bridge the gap between Denver’s long shot position and teams that begin to fall under the +2,000 wire. Long shot, or using an equine analogy, dark horse, Denver is one to even make it to Super Bowl LV, let alone win it.
Broncos Odds Analysis
Denver has only a slightly better forecast to win the AFC West than their rival Raiders. Neither seems to be deemed as a likely candidate to dethrone the Chiefs. The Broncos sit at +1,100 to win the division. A nice payday if you can get it, but getting it is the problem.
Oddsmakers looked somewhat more favorably at Denver as a possible playoff team at +180. However, even the odds of slipping into a wildcard spot are only appealing when you compare that probability against teams like the Bengals, Jaguars or fellow AFC West resident the Sin City Silver & Black.
The margin of error between making and not making the playoffs is slim as well. One would be wiser to throw good money after good money and take the -225 line for Denver not to be part of the AFC playoff picture.
One place where the oddsmakers may have opened a window of opportunity concerns Denver’s over/under for wins. A bettor can get the same money on over 7.5 as they can on under. An over bet means we think the Broncos are going to be no worse than a .500 team.
All analysis points to Denver not breaking even in the wins and losses columns. It seems safe to assume that taking a -110 line on the Broncos winning seven or fewer games to make better sense.
Denver Offseason and Draft
Denver did one thing for certain during the offseason. They changed the names of their primary players on offense. Three 2020 NFL draft picks have levitated to the top of the Broncos’ depth chart. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are pegged to be starting wide receivers.
That means second year quarterback Drew Lock is going to be tossing to a pair of rookies, a second year wide out and tight end, plus have a rookie anchoring the offensive line at center. You can expect some Mile High growing pains on offense in Denver.
Denver added three former Detroit Lions as free agents. They added a potential workhorse to the backfield, but other than the former Charger Melvin Gordon, Sam Martin punting half his season in the mile high air might be the biggest free agent addition. That leads us to Denver’s strengths and weaknesses.
Denver Strengths and Weakness
Denver’s biggest strength heading into the 2020 season has to be Mile High Stadium. However, home turf won’t be able to overcome some of the weaker links on this team. The defense finished inside or near the top-10 in most defensive categories.
Undoubtedly, Denver will try to control the ball with new addition Melvin Gordon III in the backfield. That should be enough to keep the defense off the field enough to make them a viable strength. However, this is a green offense that may be prone to turn the ball over.
That leads us to the biggest weakness the Broncos have. Youth may seem like a hard thing to label weakness, but inexperience in the NFL has a way of adding up numbers in the loss column.
The Broncos running game has to improve with the addition of Gordon. But, how does the staff envision splitting the workload with Philip Lindsay? Counting the fullback spot, Denver has 14 players coming into camp as either RB or TE.
Denver has depth at the running game, which may allow their fresh crop of studs at wide receiver time to mesh with Lock. Nevertheless, we can’t expect even the talent in Denver’s youth movement to be enough to push the fifth worst offense in football over the hump.
Denver Broncos Prediction
For all the growing pains Denver will experience on offense, they should be good enough on defense to stay close in most games. Nevertheless, the overwhelming number of inexperienced players on the roster is going to require to time to mature.
This is going to spell rapid swings from exciting plays to painful headaches for Bronco fans. Making the playoffs is a long shot. If anyone is going to make that bet, it is a no-brainer to grab the over 7.5 win total as well.
But even Las Vegas post that same 7.5 over/under for wins. It might be hard for Denver to avoid the cellar in the AFC West. The wisest use of a betting bankroll might be to pass on the Bronco prospects in 2020. There are still a few miles to go before any chance of glory returns to Mile High.
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