Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns Player Props (10/21/21)

Thursday Night Football player props are here. There are some exciting matchups this Thursday night and you can find the best Broncos and Browns player props using the player prop search tool on the page.

I’ve delayed getting out the props picks article for this game since so many of Cleveland’s major offensive pieces are injured, but we finally have some clarity with the news that Case Keenum will be the starter on Thursday night. I don’t believe the drop-off between Keenum and Baker Mayfield is as significant as the difference between some starters and backups in the NFL, but it will be tough for Keenum to be playing at his best on a short week without much notice that he would be the starter. The Broncos could pull off a road upset as the underdog in this game, and while I expect this to be a lower-scoring affair, there should always be some solid value in betting player props.

Teddy Bridgewater Under 0.5 Interceptions

We’re not starting with the sexiest player prop bet, but I think this is a phenomenal opportunity to back Teddy Bridgewater playing a clean, efficient game. He threw three interceptions against the Raiders last week in what was his worst performance of the season, but he had the green light to let it fly with the Broncos attempting to erase a multiple-score deficit late in the game. Cleveland doesn’t have nearly the same offensive firepower as Vegas brought to the table last week, so I expect Bridgewater to keep it in check in this game. The Browns’ defense has been vulnerable to the pass and only has two interceptions through six games. Bridgewater had thrown one interception through five games before this past Sunday, and this is an excellent opportunity to get close to even money on this prop.

Javonte Williams Over 46.5 Rushing Yards

The Browns’ injuries aren’t only on the offensive side of the ball as standout rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has already been ruled out while Jadeveon Clowney, Jordan Elliott, Malik Jackson, Malcolm Smith, and Mack Wilson are all listed as questionable. James Conner took 16 carries for 71 yards against that weakened Browns’ front seven last week, and I believe Williams is a much better talent. Melvin Gordon will still be involved and is still barely out-snapping Williams over the past few weeks, but I expect a steady dose of the run game in a positive game script and Williams has passed this number in each of his last three games.

Courtland Sutton Longest Reception Over 24.5 Yards

Courtland Sutton is quietly having an excellent season as he leads the NFL in air yards, ranks top-five in average depth of target, and is top-25 in contested catch rate. I expected Cleveland’s pass defense to be much better this season, but they rank just 20th in pass defense DOVA and have allowed an explosive pass play on 11% of attempts, the eighth-most in the NFL. Sutton is a big-play threat who excels at yards after the catch and he should be able to break off an extended play in this game. I don’t love his volume-based props given the expectation that this will be a lower-scoring game, and I wouldn’t parlay this with the Teddy Bridgewater prop as they are not co-dependent. However, Sutton has had a catch of 30+ yards in three of six weeks, and I expect that to continue in this matchup.

D’Ernest Johnson Under 59.5 Rushing Yards

The introduction of D’Ernest Johnson as the starting running back in Cleveland is fun and he could end up having some fantasy value depending on how long Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are forced to be out for. However, Johnson has just 40 carries for 198 yards in his career and the former undrafted free agent is extremely unproven. The Broncos have had a very solid run defense this season as they have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per attempt at 3.7 and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game at 85.5. I don’t hav much confidence in the Cleveland offense being productive with Case Keenum as the starter and several key players absent due to injury, so I’m not confident in volume being there for Johnson. If he runs at a 3.7 YPC clip, he would need 16+ carries to hit this line, and I’m not confident in him being that involved with Demetric Felton and John Kelly likely to take some reps away from him.