Denver Broncos Vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Player Props & Picks (12/25/22)
Denver Broncos Vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Picks
When the NFL schedule makers set this game for Christmas Day, I’m sure they expected it to be a lot more intriguing and carry a lot higher stakes than it actually well. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t find player prop value in the market for this game, and I’ll attempt to do that here.
Remember that you can get more coverage on this game and every NFL game this week at our YouTube channel. In addition, you can use the player prop search tool to compare odds from different sportsbooks for player props in this Broncos vs. Rams game. Let’s get to work.
Latavius Murray Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
Latavius Murray popped up on the practice report this week with a foot issue, so there’s a chance he doesn’t play this week. However, assuming he does, it will be very difficult to replicate his performance from last week. He’s just 47th in juke rate and 45th in evaded tackles among qualified backs, so it’s not like he’s been brilliant individually.
This matchup is also problematic. The Rams have maintained an elite run defense as they rank top five in DVOA, rushing success rate, and yards per carry allowed. Bobby Wagner has been one of the best linebackers in the NFL this year, and he has led the defense to the third-ranked tackling unit. I’ll happily fade Murray, an entirely unimpressive running back, given the matchup.
Russell Wilson Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-115 PointsBet)
It’s certainly been an up and down season for Russell Wilson with far more downs than ups, but this game provides an opportunity to establish some momentum heading into next season. Wilson missed last week’s game with a concussion, but that shouldn’t hamper him heading into this one.
Prior to that injury, Wilson had actually been playing much better football. Since Week 8, he ranks tenth in adjusted completion rate and sixth in big-time throw rate. It’s helped a ton having quarterbacks coach Klint Kubiak call the plays instead of Nathaniel Hackett.
The Rams’ secondary has fallen apart, and their heavy usage of zone defense provides plenty of opportunities for easy underneath completions. They rank 31st in success rate per dropback since Week 10, and they’ve allowed seven of their last eight opposing quarterbacks to go over this number.
Jerry Jeudy Over Receiving Yards
We don’t have official lines for Jerry Jeudy just yet due to Courtland Sutton’s questionable status for this game, but this matchup sets up nicely for the Broncos wide receiver. He has 60+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and the same advantages against the Rams’ secondary that I talked about with Wilson apply to Jeudy.
Jeudy has a 25% target share over the last four weeks, and he ranks 14th in open rate among 81 qualified wide receivers. He will also be in great shape against the Rams’ zone-heavy defense as Jeudy ranks 13th in yards per route run against zone coverage among wide receivers with 10+ targets.
Baker Mayfield Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
The Baker Mayfield experience has been interesting thus far, but he was held to 111 passing yards in the frigid weather in Green Bay last week. While the weather won’t be a factor for this game, he will be facing the elite Broncos pass defense, and it’s difficult to envision him having a ton of success.
The Broncos rank first in pass defense DVOA and success rate allowed, and they’re second in yards per pass allowed. Regardless of how you feel about Mayfield, he’s facing that defense with a mash unit on the offensive line and mostly second-string pass-catchers. It’s not a great spot for him, and fading his passing yardage makes a ton of sense.
