Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Player Props (9/12/22)

Monday Night Football in Week 1 of the NFL season features a much-anticipated revenge game as Russell Wilson returns to Seattle to face his former team. As Wilson debuts as a Bronco, the Denver players will likely carry significant value in the player props market. Meanwhile, the Seattle players will be fascinating to watch as they will be receiving a significant quarterback downgrade. You can utilize the player prop search tool below to locate the best odds in your market for Broncos vs. Seahawks.

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Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

This is such a difficult game to handicap and it’s not one I’m personally looking to bet at all, but if I had to choose a player prop, I see some value here. Wilson will be returning back to Seattle in an emotional situation for him, and the atmosphere will be loud as “the 12s” welcome Wilson back.

The defensive style that Seattle plays could also pose some issues. The Seahawks played more zone coverage than any team in the NFL last season, and Russell Wilson’s splits against zone were much worse last year:

Russell Wilson averaged 9.5 YPA and had a 9:1 TD:INT ratio against man coverage in 2021 while he averaged 7.7 YPA with an 8:5 TD:INT ratio against zone coverage.

The Broncos are incorporating a brand new offense with head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and there could be some growing pains after Wilson didn’t play at all in the preseason. Denver is favored by almost a touchdown in this game, and if the game script plays out as expected, they will likely be able to lean on their run game and defense. I’ll take the plus money here.

Rashaad Penny Over 12.5 Rushing Attempts

Pete Caroll is obsessed with running the ball, and he’s about to get his way with the offense after the departure of Russell Wilson. While the Seahawks spent a second-round pick on Kenneth Walker this year, he’s likely to miss at least the opening game as he’s coming off a hernia surgery.

With Walker unavailable and Chris Carson now retired, Rashaad Penny will mostly have the backfield to himself on Monday night. Over the final five games of last season, he averaged 18.5 rushing attempts per game and went over 12.5 attempts in four of those five games. I’m less willing to bet on Penny’s efficiency against a stout Denver front seven, but he should clear the rushing attempts prop rather easily.

Melvin Gordon Anytime Touchdown Scorer

For the reasons I mentioned above with Russell Wilson possibly not getting out of the gates with a hot start in the passing game, I find myself gravitating towards the Denver running backs in this matchup. I’d bet either Javonte Williams or Melvin Gordon to score a touchdown in Week 1 at their current odds.

While Williams is the younger, more talented running back, the Broncos brought Gordon back for a reason, and I expect him to be heavily involved, at least at the outset of the season. Benjamin Allbright, a Broncos team beat reporter, repeatedly said over the offseason that the split between the two backs was a lot closer to 50/50 than most would expect.

Gordon and Williams both got nine carries inside the five-yard line last season and 21 carries inside the ten-yard line, and while this is a new coaching staff, I believe we could see a similar split. While Williams is around even money, Gordon is much closer to 2-1 odds, and I’ll take the value with Gordon at those prices.