Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (10/23/22)

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks

It’s official. Dak Prescott will be back under center for the Dallas Cowboys (4-2) when they host the Detroit Lions (1-4) on Sunday, October 23. The Cowboys are 7-point favorites in this game with an over/under set at 48.5, the second-highest on the week 7 slate.

Prescott looked terrible in week 1 against the Buccaneers before leaving the game with the thumb injury that sidelined him for five weeks. What can we expect from him now in his first game back, and what kind of impact will he have on the Cowboys’ other playmakers? A matchup with the Lions’ 32nd-ranked defense might be just the welcome back gift that he needs.

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like in this Lions vs. Cowboys matchup.

Dak Prescott under 259.5 passing yards

This seems like a pretty high number for Prescott’s passing yards in his first game back after suffering an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand. We have to think he is ready to go if the Cowboys are putting him out there, but it’s hard to believe he won’t have any issues throwing the ball right now.

I expect the Cowboys to follow a similar game plan to the one that allowed them to go 4-1 with Cooper Rush. They will lean on the rushing attack against the Lions’ 32nd-ranked run defense and allow Prescott to be a game manager in this matchup as he gets more comfortable and confident throwing with that injured thumb.

One way this pick could go sideways is game script. The Lions have a potent offense that is averaging 28 points per game (3rd in the league) and 412 yards (2nd), and that is after getting shut out by the Patriots in week 5 before their bye week. If they can move the ball and put up points against the Cowboys’ strong defense, then Prescott might be forced to air it out to keep up.

However, New England also showed that this Detroit offense can be shut down and they provided a formula for doing so. I expect the Cowboys’ 3rd-ranked scoring defense to follow that formula and do a good enough job against the Lions’ offense to keep the game close and allow Prescott to run a balanced offense. If that game script plays out, it’s not likely that he will eclipse 259.5 yards passing. It is however likely that he will gain some yards on the ground…

Dak Prescott over 8.5 rushing yards

Prescott may have injured his throwing hand, but his legs are perfectly fine. His rushing numbers were way down last year after he returned from a gruesome ankle injury, but he still averaged 9.1 yards per game, above this week’s prop line.

The Lions give up the most rushing yards in the league to opposing QBs (33.2 yards per game), and after Jalen Hurts the most dangerous running QB they have faced is Geno Smith, who ran for 49 yards on 7 carries against them. Part of the reason for that is that they blitz on 31.3% of plays (5th in the league), which can leave them vulnerable to a mobile quarterback who breaks the containment.

I like Prescott to rely a bit more on his legs as he gains confidence in his throwing hand, and that means I like betting the over on 8.5 rushing yards for him.

Dalton Schultz under 31.5 receiving yards

If you are going to bet the under on Prescott’s passing yards, that prop could be stacked with the under on Prescott’s passing completions (22.5) and with some of his pass catchers. My best bet for a pass catcher would be the under on tight end Dalton Schultz.

As of this writing there is no guarantee Schultz even plays in this game as he recovers from a knee injury. Needless to say, he can’t hit the over if he doesn’t play. If he does play, there is also a good chance it will be in a limited capacity.

Schultz has been struggling this season with just 2 catches on 8 targets for 18 yards since Prescott’s injury (three games played, as he missed two due to injury). Some of that can be attributed to a lack of chemistry with Cooper Rush, but Prescott’s absence didn’t stop Schultz from averaging 35.5 yards per game in 11 games without Prescott in 2020. Schultz did have 7 catches on 9 targets for 62 yards in week 1, but that was also before suffering the knee injury in week 2 that has been bothering him ever since.

It seems his lack of production has more to do with the injury and less with his ability or role in the offense. Until we see him return to his usual levels of productivity, and so long as we are getting prop lines like 31.5 receiving yards, I am