Get Detroit Lions Vs. Green Bay Packers player prop picks & odds for the (1/8/23) matchup.
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Detroit Lions Vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
In an exciting finale to the NFL regular season, we’ll see the Lions and Packers square off in an NFC North showdown. At the time I’m writing this, we don’t yet know whether or not the Lions will have an opportunity at a playoff spot, as they will need the Rams to upset the Seahawks during the day for that to be in play.
However, the Lions will be highly motivated against their divisional rival nevertheless, especially since they can play spoiler and keep the Packers out of the postseason either way this week. Keep an eye on the Rams-Seahawks game during the day for further clarification on the stakes.
In this article, I’ll break down player props for the final regular season Sunday Night Football game. You can find more coverage of this and every game on the Lineups YouTube channel, and be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Jamaal Williams Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)
As D’Andre Swift has suffered through injuries and inconsistency, Jamaal Williams has been uber consistent as the team’s early-down hammer and red-zone workhorse. Williams has double-digit carries in all but one game this season, and last week was his most productive game with 22 carries for 144 yards and a score.
The Packers’ run defense has been gouged this season as they rank bottom five in DVOA, success rate, and yards per carry allowed. Williams, a former Packer himself, had 24 carries for 81 yards against that defense earlier this season. While he’s not an elite athlete, he’s more than productive enough to take advantage of the matchup.
In addition, Williams needs six more rushing yards to get to 1,000 yards for the season, at which point he earns a $250,000 bonus. While you won’t get good value betting an alternate line on over 5.5 rushing yards, this could mean Williams will see a couple more rushing attempts early in the game. Regardless, don’t expect his volume to go anywhere.
Williams is currently sitting at -130 odds to score a touchdown over at Caesars, and while I don’t like playing touchdown scorers in the minus, I don’t hate it in this spot. Williams has the second-most total touchdowns in the NFL on the back of 57 red-zone touches, also the second-most. Feel free to use his touchdown prop in an SGP.
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165 Caesars)
Christian Watson had that stretch earlier this season with eight total touchdowns over the span of four games, and he hasn’t scored since. However, he still had three red-zone targets in each of Week 15 and 16 before being hampered by a hip issue last week. Even still, he commanded a 19.2% target share with that injury.
One week further removed from the injury, Watson should be healthier this week. In the full games he’s played since Week 10, Watson has an impressive 50% end-zone target share and an elite 2.92 yards per route run. He’ll be running some routes against Mike Hughes, who has been torched with a 132.3 passer rating allowed in coverage.
The conversation of touchdown regression for Christian Watson over the offseason will be frequent in fantasy football circles, but I believe he could have one more score in him before the regular season comes to a close. At +165 odds on Caesars, the juice is worth the squeeze given the strong matchup and high over-under.
Aaron Jones 100+ Rushing Yards (+490 FanDuel)
Aaron Jones has been wildly inconsistent this season. He has five 100-yard games and seven games with 40 or fewer yards. Just under 60% of his total rushing yards this season have come in those five games with 100+ yards. In other words, he’s either going way over or way under his rushing yardage prop.
With that in mind, the best approach here might be to play an alternate over on his rushing. FanDuel is offering +490 odds on Jones to hit 100 rushing yards on Sunday Night Football, and since he’s done that in just over 30% of his games this year, there’s strong value in those odds.
Jones’s talent has never been the issue – he’s more than capable of carving up bad defenses, and he will be facing one here. The Lions rank bottom five in DVOA and success rate against the run, and are allowing 5.3 yards per carry, the third-most in the NFL. Jones has 100+ rushing yards in two of his last five games against Detroit.