Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (10/9/22)
Detroit Lions Vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks
The New England Patriots host the Detroit Lions in a matchup that features key injuries. With quarterbacks Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer out, rookie Bailey Zappe will get the start. The Lions are lacking D’Andre Swift and DJ Chark, while Amon-Ra St Brown and Josh Reynolds are questionable. How do these absences affect the player prop landscape? Best bets and predictions are found below.
Damien Harris Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DK)
The Lions are allowing 5.6 yards per rush, rank 28th in PFF’s run defense, and rank 24th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards allowed. In their most recent game, the Seahawks gashed them for 235 rushing yards on 7.1 yards per attempt. Overall, it’s accurate to claim that Detroit owns a putrid run defense.
Enter the Patriots, who rank 1st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 5th in PFF’s rushing offense. Although Damien Harris splits snaps with Rhamondre Stevenson, Harris handles the majority of carries and has been efficient with his opportunities – 4.6 yards per rush on 53 carries. This efficiency trend will especially translate against Detroit’s run defense.
The volume with Zappe at quarterback is also promising, as Harris ran for 86 yards on 18 carries in last week’s loss to the Packers. With New England reluctant to designate Zappe a volume passer, the rushing attempts project to be plentiful here. It’s a matchup that oozes production for Harris.
Stevenson still receives around 12 carries per game, but the Patriots have increased his role as a pass catcher. He recorded 4 receptions on 5 targets in each of his last two games, and this volume should at a minimum remain the same against the Lions. Per PFF, Zappe’s average depth of target against the Packers was 5.5 yards. In terms of his attempts, 4 of 15 were behind the line of scrimmage and 5 of 15 were short (0-9 yards). This bodes well for Stevenson, who has shined both in the flat and short center area of the field.
Stevenson has produced 11 receptions on 14 targets this season; 5 receptions and 6 targets were in the short center area of the field (per PFF). How has Detroit fared covering this area? They have allowed 29 receptions on 34 targets to this area through 4 games. The Lions have also allowed 15 receptions on 19 targets behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, Detroit struggles to defend the sections where Stevenson is prone to receiving the ball.
Jamaal Williams Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)
The Lions rushing attack is also primed for a huge game here. New England is allowing 5.1 yards per rush, ranks 23rd in PFF’s run defense, and 21st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards allowed. Detroit’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 4th in adjusted line yards and 6th in PFF’s rushing offense. Although D’Andre Swift’s injury stings, Jamaal Williams has thrived as his replacement.
Over the past two games, Williams recorded 87 yards on 20 carries and 108 yards on 19 carries. Regardless of the situation, the Lions embrace the ground game and continuously run the ball. Detroit has especially leaned heavily on Williams because of injuries to their receivers, and that shouldn’t change much against the Patriots. Their top three receivers are either out or playing hurt, so Detroit likely emphasizes the run game. Overall, it’s a favorable matchup for Williams in terms of volume and efficiency.
Jamaal Williams First Touchdown Scorer (+650 DK)
First touchdown scorers are the most exciting bet in my opinion, and I absolutely love Jamaal in this matchup. The Lions have scored the first touchdown in three of their four games, while the Patriots have accomplished this feat in one of their four games. Detroit’s offense is far more explosive, and they likely move the ball down the field easier than the Zappe-led Patriots offense.
Jamaal Williams has been the first touchdown scorer twice already, and he’s produced a league-leading 6 touchdowns this season. Williams ranks tied-2nd in red zone touches for running backs at 16, so it’s not flukey efficiency. I am projecting plenty of red zone touches in this game, and he has the ability to rip off a long touchdown also. The odds are also long enough to back Jamaal here.
