Get Detroit Lions Vs. New York Giants player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/22) matchup
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Detroit Lions Vs. New York Giants Player Prop Picks
In an intriguing NFC matchup this week, we’ll see the Lions and Giants face off. Variance has hit these teams hard as they have vastly different records but are back to back in terms of DVOA. Therefore, we should see a highly competitive game, and that makes for a great environment for betting on player props.
In this article, I’ll discuss my favorite player prop values from this upcoming game. As a reminder, not every prop that I write about in these articles makes it into my official plays for the week. You can check out our official NFL Player Props page to see my full card. To compare odds from different sportsbooks, you can use the player prop search tool above. Let’s get to work.
Daniel Jones Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
The Lions’ defense is generally inept across the board, but they’ve been especially bad at defending mobile quarterbacks. They’ve allowed a league-high 41.3 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season, and they have the sixth-worst run defense overall by DVOA.
Of course, those numbers are somewhat skewed by allowing 147 rushing yards to Justin Fields last week and 90 to Jalen Hurts last week, but they’ve also allowed over 40 rushing yards to Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers.
Daniel Jones is a highly mobile quarterback who’s averaging 43 rushing yards per game on the season. In his last two games, he’s finished with just 20 and 24 yards, but he had 107 rushing yards against the Jaguars in the game prior.
The current forecast for this game includes 18 mph winds, and that would make it difficult to throw the ball. As a result, the run-heavy Giants could employ even more of a run-first approach. That would obviously benefit Jones further.
I’d imagine this line has moved by the time you’re reading this, and I’m willing to play it all the way through 40 yards. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter for specific questions about stop points for spreads and player props.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
I’d love to make this an official play, but it’s unfortunately highly dependent on the weather forecast in New York. Jared Goff has a history of struggling in adverse outdoor conditions, and the current forecast for this game would certainly qualify.
Presuming the weather isn’t too much of an inhibiting factor, this matchup profiles very favorably for Amon-Ra St. Brown. After a down stretch of games due to injury, the Sun God bounced back last week with a 119-yard performance against the Bears.
Much of his high usage was due to the Bears blitzing Goff on 43.3% of his dropbacks. His aDOT was just 4.91 yards against the blitz, but he targeted ARSB often as he has all year. St. Brown leads the NFL with a 44.3% team target share against the blitz.
This week, the Lions face the Giants’ defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. New York has allowed receivers with similar profiles in CeeDee Lamb, Randall Cobb, and Christian Kirk to average 7.3 catches for 94 yards against them, and St. Brown could follow suit, particularly with T.J. Hockenson no longer in the offense as a short-area target.
Jamaal Williams Longest Carry Under 20.5
Keep in mind that Jamaal Williams missed practices earlier this week due to an undisclosed illness, but at the time I’m writing this, it appears that he’s completely good to go for this game. Make sure that’s the case before placing a bet.
Assuming he’s playing, I will likely be interested in playing the under on his longest rushing attempt. Even without any lingering effects from his illness, Williams has a long carry of 20+ yards just once over the past five weeks, and I don’t expect that to change.
The concern would theoretically be that the Giants are allowing the most yards per carry in the league, but they rank 11th in tackling on PFF. Williams also failed to hit the over against poor run defenses lately in the Dolphins, Packers, and Bears.
With D’Andre Swift continuing to trend towards full health and Justin Jackson still getting touches, I wouldn’t be shocked if Williams takes a bit of a step back this week. Either way, I don’t see him ripping off a long run in this game, so this prop is likely worth a look.