The Brewers missed numerous opportunities in Game 1, ultimately blowing an early 3-0 lead and letting the Diamondbacks steal the win. Momentum has shifted to Arizona, and the Diamondbacks have exactly who they want on the hill in Zac Gallen. Even so, Milwaukee is a slight favorite at -130 on the moneyline in Game 2.
Let’s make predictions for Wednesday’s game and take a closer look at why the Diamondbacks seem better positioned to win (and advance).
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction
The Wild Card Series is still in its infancy, but it’s worth remembering that only one of four Game 1 winners last season didn’t complete the sweep. Momentum means something, and it especially means something when you have Zac Gallen on the mound.
The Diamondbacks came out of Game 1 not just with a win, but with a pitching advantage after the Brewers were forced to heavily use Devin Williams and a few other high-leverage relievers. Milwaukee showed promise by generating 12 hits against Diamondbacks pitching, but for a team that hit just .240 this season, that might not be sustainable against a pitcher as talented as Gallen.
The Brewers have strikeout-reliant Freddy Peralta facing an Arizona lineup that doesn’t strike out often, and once he departs, Milwaukee doesn’t seem to have quite as much of a bullpen advantage as we all expected.
At +110 on the moneyline, the Diamondbacks are the better pick to complete a quick sweep and ride this momentum into the NLDS.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+108)
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds
ARI @ MIL
Oct. 04, 6:08 PM
Odds updated October 4th, 2023, at 8:58 pm
The Brewers are slight favorites in Game 2 at -130 on the moneyline. The over/under 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee was a heavier favorite in Game 1 thanks to what looked like a lopsided pitching matchup, and maybe that was fair – the Brewers created traffic on the basepaths and just couldn’t cash in. With momentum on Arizona’s side and Zac Gallen on the mound, the energy has quickly shifted.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Game 2.
Brewers’ Low-Contact Lineup vs. Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen slipped up a bit in the second half, and one of the big differences between 2022 and 2023 for him was the number of hits he allowed. He went from a tremendous 5.9 hits per nine innings to 8.2 hits per nine this season, even as walks stayed very low. Can a Brewers lineup that isn’t used to hitting for average string together hits and beat Gallen that way?
Milwaukee’s .240 AVG is the worst among all postseason teams. While pitching and power is a valuable combination, it’s steady starters like Gallen who can be hard to beat with just power alone.
The Brewers faced Gallen twice this season, notching only three hits in seven innings each time. They scored a total of one run. That won’t work on Wednesday if Milwaukee wants to win.
Freddy Peralta vs. Pitch Count
The Brewers used six relievers in Game 1. Devin Williams threw more than 30 pitches in a losing effort. If the Diamondbacks can get Freddy Peralta out of the game early, they could benefit from seeing guys a second time and tiring out some of the Brewers’ relief arms.
Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher, which helped him become one of baseball’s best starters in the second half but also means he could build up his pitch count quickly. Peralta averages about 5.5 innings per start, so odds are Milwaukee’s bullpen will need to get nine outs – potentially more if Arizona makes him work.
Using Williams as much as they did was a risk for the Brewers that just didn’t pay off. It’s the postseason, so everyone is available to pitch on back-to-back days, but effectiveness is an entirely different story.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Starting Lineups
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
RF Corbin Carroll L
2B Ketel Marte S
DH Tommy Pham R
1B Christian Walker R
C Gabriel Moreno R
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R
CF Alek Thomas L
3B Evan Longoria R
SS Geraldo Perdomo S
Brewers Starting Lineup
LF Christian Yelich L
C William Contreras R
1B Carlos Santana S
DH Mark Canha R
CF Sal Frelick L
SS Willy Adames R
3B Josh Donaldson R
2B Brice Turang L
RF Tyrone Taylor R