This week’s Sunday Night Baseball game on ESPN is a SoCal showdown between the Dodgers and Padres in San Diego. Both NL West rivals have recent trade deadline acquisitions on the mound. Lance Lynn makes his second start for the Dodgers while Rich Hill makes his Padres debut.
The Dodgers are the betting favorites at -120 on the moneyline. The prediction here is that the Dodgers win behind Lynn for his second start in a row.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction
Starting pitchers: RHP Lance Lynn (7-9, 6.32 ERA) vs. LHP Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA)
Career starts for the two starting pitchers in this game: 550.
Career starts with their current teams: 1.
That pretty much sums up the matchup between the Dodgers’ Lance Lynn and the Padres’ Rich Hill. They are both veteran pitchers who have become journeymen late in their careers, but still represent reliable innings eaters that provide some stability in the rotation for their respective new clubs.
They will both have their work cut out for them against two of the most dangerous lineups in the big leagues.
The big difference is that the Dodgers have been doing it consistently all season, while the Padres started slow and have only started heating up over the last month. That is a big reason San Diego is 10 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West standings and 4 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot (entering Saturday’s action).
While the starting pitchers tonight have plenty of experience, their performance has fallen off so far this season. Lynn’s 6.32 ERA is the highest of his career, while Hill’s 4.76 mark is his highest as a starter since 2009. Combined with the offensive firepower each team is packing, that should be a recipe for a high-scoring game with plenty of fireworks.
Even in a pitcher-friendly park like Petco, the best bet in this game is over 9 runs at +100 odds.
If you’re looking to pick a side, the value is on the Dodgers -1 against the spread with +130 odds. Betting the spread makes more sense than taking the -120 moneyline odds. So long as the Dodgers win, the worst you can do is push.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction: Dodgers -1 (+130), over 9 runs (+100)
Note: all metrics above taken before Saturday’s games
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
The Dodgers are betting favorites at -120 on the moneyline, while the Padres’ moneyline odds are at +100.
The Dodgers are laying -1 runs against the spread at +130 odds, while the Padres are getting +1 runs at -155.
The over/under is set at 9 runs with -120 odds on the under and +100 on the over.
Dodgers vs. Padres Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Dodgers vs. Padres.
Lance Lynn vs. Juan Soto
As a team, both the Dodgers and Padres have been equally effective against both lefty and righty pitchers. That is part of the reason for the over pick in our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction above.
While the platoon splits can’t inform expectations too much in this game, they are meaningful in a few key matchups. One such matchup is Lynn vs. Soto.
Lynn’s splits are significantly stronger against righties, and most of the Padres’ best hitters are right-handed. Soto is the exception.
Lynn is allowing a .211 average and .684 OPS against righties compared to .325 and 1.000 against lefties. Soto is hitting .293 with a 1.040 OPS against righties compared to .242 and .778 against lefties.
The winner of this matchup will have a big impact on the Padres’ offensive production tonight.
These lineups are more than capable of chasing the starting pitchers early in this game, and if that happens the bullpens will play a significant role.
These bullpens are fairly evenly matched. The Padres have the better bullpen ERA at 3.93 (14th) compared to the Dodgers’ 4.14 ERA (18th), but the Dodgers have the better advanced metrics with a 4.01 FIP (11th) compared to the Padres’ 4.34 FIP (23rd).
The Dodgers’ bullpen has looked much better recently. They have a 2.93 ERA since July 1 (2nd best in the league) and a 3.85 FIP (10th).
Give a slight edge to the Dodgers here, which is another reason to back them against the spread tonight.
Dodgers vs. Padres Starting Lineups (Projected)
Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF Mookie Betts (R)
1B Freddie Freeman (L)
C Will Smith (R)
DH J.D. Martinez (R)
2B Amed Rosario (R)
3B Max Muncy (L)
CF James Outman (L)
LF Kike Hernandez (R)
SS Miguel Rojas (R)
Padres Starting Lineup
2B Ha-Seong Kim (R)
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
LF Juan Soto (L)
3B Manny Machado (R)
SS Xander Bogaerts (R)
1B Jake Cronenworth (L)
C Luis Campusano (R)
DH Ji-Man Choi (S)
CF Trent Grisham (L)