Miami Dolphins Vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (1/15/23)
Miami Dolphins Vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
In one of three divisional rematches in this year’s Wild Card round, the Dolphins travel to play the Bills in what is a tiebreaker game as they each won once during the regular season. Sadly, Tua Tagovailoa won’t be available for Miami, and it will be Skylar Thompson making his playoff debut instead.
You can find full coverage of this and every Wild Card round game on the Lineups YouTube channel. Be sure to use the Dolphins vs. Bills player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and maximize your value in the market. Let’s get to work.
Dawson Knox Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel) and Anytime Touchdown (+220 FanDuel)
After a difficult start to the season, Dawson Knox has come on strong in recent weeks with 47.1 yards per game over his last seven games. That includes the Week 15 game against the Dolphins where Knox caught six of his eight targets for 98 yards and a touchdown.
Miami has struggled against tight ends all year as they rank 30th in DVOA against the position and have allowed them the highest catch rate in the league. Hunter Henry (52), Cole Kmet (41), T.J. Hockenson (80), and Pat Freiermuth (75) have all gone over this yardage number against them in recent weeks.
Knox also ranks 19th in red-zone targets this season, and he has scored in four straight games. Josh Allen clearly trusts him in the painted area. The Bills’ team total is also set at 27.5 for this game, so we’re expecting them to score some touchdowns. In the opening round of the playoffs last year, Knox scored twice.
Devin Singletary Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
For the first time all season in Week 18, James Cook out snapped Devin Singletary 56% to 41%. It should have happened a while ago as the rookie has been far more dynamic, but it took a Singletary fumble for it to finally happen last week.
While Singletary will likely continue to be the starter, Cook is beginning to encroach more and more on his workload, and the rookie back is clearly the higher-upside option as Buffalo enters a hopeful Super Bowl run.
The Dolphins held Singletary to 55 yards on 22 carries across two matchups this season, and they ranked third in the NFL in early downs rushing EPA allowed. Buffalo could look to throw the ball more in this game, even with a lead, as a result.
Singletary has gone under this yardage mark in three of his last four games, and his inefficient rushing won’t lead to production in a difficult matchup with Cook breathing down his neck for more touches.
Jeff Wilson Over Rushing + Receiving Yards
We don’t have player props for most Dolphins players at this point in time as they are dealing with a ton of injuries in the backfield, offensive line, and receiving corps. However, Jeff Wilson is a player I’d have some interest in for a few reasons.
In the matchup a few weeks ago between these teams, Miami’s running backs combined for 199 yards from scrimmage. Wilson wasn’t active for that game as he was sidelined by an injury, and now it’s Raheem Mostert who’s dealing with a thumb issue.
Even if Mostert is active, I don’t expect him to be the workhorse back due to that injury. Specifically, a thumb issue would hamper his ability to pass protect and catch passes, so I expect Wilson to see more of the third-down work in this game.
Wilson finished the regular season ranked fourth among running backs with 130+ carries in rushing yards over expectation, and the Bills ranked as the second-worst tackling defense this year, so this is a winnable matchup.
With Skylar Thompson making his playoff debut on the road as a sixth-round rookie, Miami will likely attempt to lean on the ground game, an
