Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/22/23)

The Miami Dolphins face the Philadelphia Eagles in Sunday Night Football (10/22/23). Get Dolphins vs. Eagles First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Dolphins vs. Eagles game?

Tyreek Hill First Dolphins TD (+320 FD)

Miami’s passing offense is electric. They lead the NFL in net yards gained per pass attempt, passing touchdowns, and dropback success rate. Tyreek Hill is a massive reason behind their dominance, as he’s on pace for 2,346 yards and 17 touchdowns. The veteran speedster can take it to the house on any possession, and he remains Tua Tagovailoa’s first read. 

The Dolphins face a weak Eagles secondary that has given up fourteen passing touchdowns in six games, which is the fourth highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, they are extremely stout against the run due to defensive linemen Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox, and Milton Williams. Philadelphia has only surrendered three rushing touchdowns all season, and opponents own 3.6 yards per rush against them. Miami will find it far easier to break Philadelphia’s defense through the air, especially given their dominant wide receivers. 

Hill must score Miami’s first touchdown about 24 percent of the time based on his odds here. 

Jaylen Waddle First Dolphins TD (+450 FD)

As stated above, Philadelphia’s secondary is vulnerable, while their run defense is extremely challenging to breach. If Tyreek Hill isn’t the recipient of a passing touchdown, then Jaylen Waddle would be the next option. He quietly paces Miami in red zone targets per game, and he’s one of eleven players with at least six end zone targets this season. The Alabama product and former Tua Tagovailoa college teammate has the game-breaking speed to also turn any reception into a touchdown, so he holds massive touchdown equity. 

Waddle needs to score Miami’s first touchdown about 18 percent of the time. 

Dallas Goedert First Eagles TD (+850 FD) & First TD (+1800 FD)

Although AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith dominate Jalen Hurts’ attention, they have surprisingly never scored Philadelphia’s first touchdown this year. That’s not the case for tight end Dallas Godert, who is also tied with Brown for the most red zone targets among Eagles pass-catchers. Opposing tight ends possess the 8th most receptions, 10th most yards, and 10th most touchdowns against Miami’s exploitable secondary so far, which bodes well for Goedert. 

Attempting to select the first scorer from Philadelphia is typically a massive gamble given how many weapons they roster, but Goedert’s first touchdowns odds are too tantalizing here. He must score Philadelphia’s first touchdown about 10 percent of the time and the game’s first touchdown about 5 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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