Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (9/17/23)

The Miami Dolphins take on the New England Patriots on Sunday. Check out below for Dolphins vs. Patriots player prop odds, predictions, and best bets, including Hunter Henry, Tua Tagovailoa, and Tyreek Hill.

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Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks

Both teams are seeking a key division win. Which players can contribute quality snaps?

Hunter Henry Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115 BMGM)

New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has injected some life into this offense. Mac Jones attempted 54 passes and threw eight 20+ yard passes in Week One per PFF, which ranked second behind only Derek Carr. He was 15 of 21 in between the numbers – Hunter Henry’s comfort zone. He reintroduced himself as a legitimate aerial threat after years of battling injuries and had 56 yards and a touchdown on five receptions.

Henry faces a Miami secondary that allowed the third most receptions, eighth most yards, and fourth most touchdowns to tight ends last season. They project to continue these struggles into this season, which is great news for Henry.

He needs to hit 34 yards about 53 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value. t get 46 yards about 54 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-123 Caesars)

Like Jones, Tua Tagovailoa also attempted eight 20+ yard passes downfield. He absolutely carved up the Chargers’ defense, but he faces a far more difficult task here. New England features one of the best secondaries in the NFL, and Bill Belichick is a defensive genius that can utterly befuddle even the most explosive offenses (Example A: 2019 Super Bowl vs. Rams). It’s a given that Tagovailoa will sling it downfield, but I am betting on this elite Pats coverage and Belichick’s disguises to confuse him a few times, thus leading to an interception.

Tagovailo ranked 20th in interception percentage during the 2021 season and 13th in 2022; he’s not immune to turnovers. His high risk high reward style pays dividends with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but occasional mistakes are the price. Look for this Pats defense to hand him the bill.

He must throw a pick about 55 percent of the time for it to have a positive expected value.

Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 27.5 Yards (-110 DK)

This Patriots secondary is extremely stingy…but “Cheetah” is set for a career year. Hill notched 215 yards on 11 receptions against the Chargers, including a 47-yard catch. He’s as fast as ever, but his route running has reached new heights. In addition, the Dolphins are creating new ways to utilize Hill’s speed, including unique motions. As a result, Hill is nearly unstoppable at the moment, especially with Tua Tagovailoa wielding a flamethrower. New England cannot solely focus on Hill either with Jaylen Waddle on the field, so it’s difficult for the Patriots to constantly double him. Look for Tyreek to break through at least one time for either a long catch or a monster yards after the catch performance.

Hill must get a 28-yard catch about 52 percent of the time for the bet to own a positive expected value.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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