DraftKings MLB Daily Fantasy Picks 5/22/19
Contents
Slate News, Injuries, Vegas Totals, & Weather
10 games on tap for tonight, as DraftKings decided to leave off the St Louis and Kansas City double-header. Only one game with potential rain tonight, and that is Pittsburgh and Colorado. Shouldn’t impact too much. New York, Boston, Chicago, and Houston are the heavy implied totals tonight. San Francisco, Chicago White Sox, Washington, New York Mets, and Pittsburgh all have implied totals under four.
Cash Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($12,000) – We had an easy call last night with Justin Verlander, who racked up 12 strikeouts, and now we turn to Gerrit Cole. He has a 38.3% strikeout rate this season, and gets a White Sox projected lineup striking out 25.5% of the time against right-handed pitching. Cole brings a 2.19 xFIP to the table, and is holding both sides of the plate to under a .280 wOBA. His fastball has a 33% whiff rate, and both his slider and changeup have over a 35% whiff rate. He is an excellent play. Chicago has the lowest implied total on the night slate, and Houston are monster home favorites. Cole is a viable option in all formats.
Max Fried ($8,500) – Max Fried is a cheap SP2 to pair with a big arm tonight. He has a 3.16 xFIP on the year, and 22.4% strikeout rate. His walk rate is around 5%, and he rolls groundballs at a healthy rate. Holding both sides of the plate to under a .300 wOBA is a plus, but also facing this Giants lineup is what catches my eye. The projected lineup has a .260 wOBA, .082 ISO, and 26% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Fried has a really good curveball and slider that can generate strikeouts. Atlanta is a -157 road favorite, and San Francisco is implied to 3.4 implied runs.
GPP Pitchers
Max Scherzer ($11,100) – Both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are fine pivots away from deGrom, as they both square off against each other tonight. This is sort of a writeup for both, as they both sit with over a 30% strikeout rate this season. Scherzer has been unlucky at times with a 2.92 xFIP, and his ERA a run higher. He struggles with lefties a bit, and that is the concern against this lineup, but the strikeout upside is there. The same goes for deGrom against Washington. They have a 22.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Jon Gray ($9,200) – Jon Gray has been somewhat flying under the radar this season, with a 27% strikeout rate this season, and 3.65 xFIP. A few bust outings have driven up his overall wOBA and ERA, but he moves to the opposite of Coors and against a pedestrian lineup. Gray has a 40% whiff rate on his slider and 44% whiff rate on his curveball. Fastball velocity is fine, and he has a 59% groundball rate off of it. I will be looking for another repeat fantasy performance from a Rockies arm, just like we saw out of German Marquez last night.
Top Offenses To Target
New York Yankees (6.5) – Have to beat the drum again here, as New York has over a six total against Dan Straily in Baltimore. He has a whopping 7.13 xFIP and is allowing a .485 wOBA to righties, with a .400 wOBA to lefties. He has a walk rate almost as high as his 10.7% strikeout rate and is the worst pitcher on the slate. The Yankees projected lineup has a .361 wOBA and .217 ISO combined. Just like they have been the last few nights, Yankees are in play yet again.
Boston Red Sox (6.1) – Boston fell short against Marcus Stroman last night, and will get Aaron Sanchez this time around. A better spot for the Sox, as Sanchez has an xFIP pushing five, and is allowing a .364 wOBA to right-handed bats. His groundball rate is down a bit, and his walk rate nears 13%. J.D. Martinez has sat out the last few days, but you still have big bats like the outfielders, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Michael Chavis.
Chicago Cubs (5.9) – Wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight, and the Cubs total is up near six. Cole Irvin has made a few starts that look good on paper, but he is a southpaw that doesn’t miss many bats. He has a .367 xwOBA on his slider that has just a 6% whiff rate, and a sub 90 fastball that is due for regression. Cubs bats stand out in this spot tonight. Kris Bryant is back and has a .394 ISO off southpaws. Willson Contreras, Addison Russell, and David Bote are back half of the lineup guys to consider. Double check on Javier Baez, but he should be back again and has a .643 ISO off southpaws.
Houston Astros (5.7) – Ivan Nova is on the hill for the White Sox, who has allowed a .373 wOBA to right-handers, and a .439 wOBA to lefties. He is also allowing over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate. Hitters have an 80% contact rate and 35% hard-contact rate off of him. Houston is still without Jose Altuve, and George Springer is banged up. You can look at the back half for mid-range to value plays, as names like Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Correa are over $5,000.
Top GPP Bats
Rhys Hoskins ($4,100) – The Phillies are underpriced against Cole Hamels with the wind blowing out tonight, not that Hamels has been bad this year, but they just make nice GPP pieces. Rhys Hoskins is a big power bat for $4,100, and he has a .389 wOBA and .225 ISO off left-handed pitching. Hamels is allowing a 40% hard-contact rate to right-handers, and if Hamels relies too heavily on the fastball cutter, Hoskins will thrive. He is a bit boom or bust but paying $4,100 compared to the near $5,000 price tags we usually pay, I will take some chances.
Max Kepler ($4,100) – I have just been rotating Twins bats in this section, and they have been hitting because they are facing the Angels staff. Matt Harvey is on the hill, and is allowing a .403 wOBA, .273 ISO, and 56% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. That means Marwin Gonzalez, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Polanco are also in play. Kepler is the featured bat who should come in lower owned. He has a .370 wOBA and .250 ISO off right-handed pitching this season. He will be leading off as usual, and this is a stack you can go with as well.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr ($4,000) – Rick Porcello has been mostly bad this season, with an xFIP over 5.00 and a sub 20% strikeout rate. He has allowed a .205 ISO to right-handed hitters, with a 43% flyball rate. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is heating up, and now has a .389 wOBA and .259 ISO off right-handers. His hard-contact rate is 48% against righties, and strikeout rate has dropped to 16%. Porcello’s stuff isn’t overpowering, and Vlad has a ton of power upside.
