DraftKings New Jersey: Colts +415 to Score a Defensive TD for TNF

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The Colts were originally listed at +350 to score a defensive touchdown and have been boosted to +415.

Derrick Henry sat at +230 to rush for over 100 yards AND score a touchdown, which has been bumped to +260.

In eight games, the Colts have three defensive touchdowns and have forced turnovers in seven of them. This season, Indianapolis has scored a defensive touchdown in 37.5% of the games, which has implied odds of +264. So, +415 looks good on paper. However, the Titans have only turned the ball over four times this season, two coming in one game, and have not surrendered a defensive touchdown.

Derrick Henry rushing for over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown is intriguing. The Colts are holding opponents to 83.6 rushing yards per game. However, according to Football Outsiders, when facing a top-10 rushing offense, they allow 104.7 yards in those games. The Titans currently have the seventh-best rushing offense. Derrick Henry has rushed for over 100 yards in every other game this season, but when facing top-10 rush defenses (Pittsburgh & Chicago), he has been limited to under 100 yards rushing and one touchdown. Indianapolis comes in with the second-best run defense in the NFL.

Wednesday Night MACtion!

Every November, the MAC is here to save the day! We get to bet football everyday of the week thanks to the MAC scheduling games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays this month. Tonight, we have a great matchup between Northern Illinois and Central Michigan to get some midweek action in.

Both teams put up 30 points in their respective week 1 matchup, but the advanced numbers don’t show that the offensive performances were great. The Huskies offensive success rate in week 1 sat at 37%, while the Chippewas had a 42% success rate. NIU turned the ball over five times last week in a sloppy performance thanks to their inexperience on the offensive side of the ball. Central Michigan had zero turnovers but did benefit from two fumble recoveries from Ohio, leading to points. Both offenses averaged 4.9 yards per play in their first game and could spell for a low scoring game in Dekalb tonight.

Bet: Under 59

Thursday Night Best Bet

Tennessee and Indianapolis are playing this Thursday night in what should be one of the best weekday NFL games of the season. The Titans are coming off an impressive win over Chicago while the Colts fell to Baltimore at home. The Colts are a game behind the Titans in the AFC South standings, and a win over Tennessee would bump them first to place thanks to the would-be tiebreaker.

The matchup to watch will be the Titans offense vs. the Colts defense. According to Football Outsiders, Tennessee has the third-best offense (2nd passing & 7th rushing), but when facing top-10 defenses, they are averaging 299 yards per game. Indianapolis ranks third on defense (5th passing & 2nd rushing). However, this will be the best offense the Colts have seen this season.

The Colts have had some success moving the football this season, and against pretty good defenses. Tennessee currently ranks 18th in DVOA (24th passing & 15th rushing). Indianapolis is traveling on the short week, but there shouldn’t be much surprise if the Colts move the football on a mediocre Titans defense.

Bet: Colts ML +115