One of the best ways to identify valuable DraftKings targets is projecting the game script and potential scoring production for both teams in any given matchup. Of course, we want to target the highest-scoring games on the week as those games will produce the most fantasy points. Game stacks are often a great way to reduce variability in a given lineup by securing more pieces from a higher-scoring game. Winter is coming, and the weather will continue to be a massive factor, so make sure you check out our matchup pages to stay apprised of the forecast. These are the games this week with the highest and lowest over/under totals (main slate only).
- Packers @ Lions – O/U 55 (GB -7.5)
- Vikings @ Buccaneers – O/U 52.5 (TB -6.5)
- Titans @ Jaguars – O/U 52 (TEN -7.5)
- Colts @ Raiders – O/U 52 (IND -3)
- Chiefs @ Dolphins – O/U 50.5 (KC -7)
- Cowboys @ Bengals – O/U 42.5 (DAL -3)
- Saints @ Eagles – O/U 43 (NO -7.5)
- Washington @ 49ers – O/U 43.5 (SF -3)
- Cardinals @ Giants – O/U 45.5 (ARI -3)
- Broncos @ Panthers – O/U 45.5 (CAR -3.5)
Justin Herbert ($6,800): Herbert is coming off easily the worst game of his rookie season as he finished with just 6.4 fantasy points against the Patriots. Bill Belichick continued his trend of dominating against rookie quarterbacks as the Pats shut out the Chargers. Herbert finished completing just 49.1% of his passes for 209 yards and two interceptions with no touchdowns. He had scored 20+ fantasy points in every other game this season prior to last week, though, so we should expect him to get back on track. This matchup is much more favorable against the Falcons who allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Atlanta allows 285.3 passing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Herbert pass the 300-yard mark and grab that all-important point boost in DraftKings. He’s a strong play for both GPP and cash lineups.
Kirk Cousins ($6,200): With 20+ fantasy points in three straight games, Cousins has been on fire lately. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns in each of those three games. His matchup doesn’t get any more difficult this week as he faces the Buccaneers, a team that has been very susceptible on the back-end and has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to passers over the past five weeks. With Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL right now, Cousins has an easy route to loads of passing yards and with just 2 interceptions over his last 6 games, the downside is marginal as well. Cousins has top-five weekly upside, especially in a matchup against the beatable Tampa secondary.
Daniel Jones ($5,500): In his sophomore season as a professional quarterback, Daniel Jones hasn’t had quite the level of success I had hoped for. He’s completed just 63.2% of his passes for 2,335 yards and 8 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in 11 games. However, he’s run for 403 yards and a touchdown, which gives him a solid boost in fantasy. He’s only hit 20+ fantasy points in two of his games this year, but Jones has a great chance to hit that mark this week against the Cardinals. Arizona allows 26.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past five weeks, the fifth-most in the NFL. Jones isn’t a particularly safe fantasy option, but at $5,500, he’s one of my favorite low-price QBs. Stacking him with Sterling Shepard ($5,200) gives you some strong upside and allows you to spend up at other positions.
Other GPP options to consider: Russell Wilson ($7,900), Deshaun Watson ($7,600), Aaron Rodgers ($7,500), Ryan Tannehill ($6,700), Taysom Hill ($6,600), Philip Rivers ($5,900), Mitchell Trubisky ($5,600), Mike Glennon ($5,100)
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500): Although he’s now the third-highest-priced quarterback in the main slate, Aaron Rodgers continues to be my favorite cash target at QB. He’s averaging 26.8 fantasy points per game over the past seven weeks. With 23 touchdowns over that span, Rodgers is an MVP frontrunner and will look to continue his torrid pace against a Lions team who he has torched in the past. Detroit has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and have allowed 20+ fantasy points to three of the last six passers they have faced. Rodgers has dipped under 19 points just once all season and under 23 points just twice. With that type of baseline, and in a strong matchup with a huge over-under, the Packers’ QB is an easy plug-and-play option for cash lineups or GPPs.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,700): The Titans’ quarterback has turned into one of my favorite cash targets at quarterback with 19+ fantasy points in each of his last three games, despite facing a couple of tough defenses in the Ravens and Colts in that span. This week, things get significantly easier against the Jaguars defense that allows the most yards from scrimmage and the fourth-most points per game. Jacksonville has allowed 22.6 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, the fourth-most, and have allowed 26 passing touchdowns, the second-most. Tannehill should be able to exploit this matchup with the high-octane pass-catchers in this offense. Tennessee is sure to run the ball a ton, so his upside may not be great enough for GPPs, but Tannehill’s baseline makes him a great cash target.
Matthew Stafford ($5,700): The Lions finally opened up the offense last week after Matt Patricia was fired, as Derrell Bevell’s high-octane downfield passing attack was finally freed up to go to work. Matthew Stafford responded with his best game of the season as he completed 64.3% of his passes for a whopping 402 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. The Packers have been solid against quarterbacks this year and they’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to the position over the past five weeks. That limits Stafford’s upside, but this game has the highest over-under total of the main slate. The Lions will be playing catch-up late and need to air out the offense again, so Stafford should be able to get to 20+ fantasy points. At this price, that puts him squarely on the radar for cash lineups.
Other cash options to consider: Russell Wilson ($7,900), Deshaun Watson ($7,600), Kirk Cousins ($6,200), Philip Rivers ($5,900), Matt Ryan ($5,700), Mike Glennon ($5,100)
Aaron Jones ($7,600): This is a super chalky play this week, and I just don’t care. Aaron Jones is my favorite running back in the main slate. He finished with 23.8 fantasy points against the Eagles last week which included a 77-yard rushing touchdown to seal the win for Green Bay. This week, Jones takes on a Lions defense that he racked up 45.6 fantasy points against earlier in the year. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs and the Packers are big favorites in a game with a high over-under. It would not be at all shocking to see a multi-touchdown game out of Jones, and the Lions are allowing 133.6 rushing yards per game, a 100-yard outing should be in the cards. Jones is a massive talent in a great offense in a perfect matchup – it just doesn’t get much better, and he’s going to dominate this week.
Austin Ekeler ($7,000): I’m hopeful that Austin Ekeler’s ownership will take a sizable hit this week with his high price tag and after he finished with just 10.8 PPR points against the Patriots last week. His matchup is tough this week against the Falcons who allow the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs over the past five weeks, but I still have faith in Ekeler. He has 25 targets in his two games since returning from his injury and Atlanta has allowed 5 catches for 36 yards per game to opposing RBs. Ekeler may not rack up more than 50 rushing yards, but his involvement in the passing game can carry his fantasy value – he finished with 23.9 points two weeks ago despite rushing the ball just 14 times for 44 yards. Ekeler is a dynamic talent who has tremendous upside, and the projected low ownership makes him a great GPP target.
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,600): With double-digit fantasy points in just two of his last six games, Ezekiel Elliott has been difficult to trust as of late. The combination of a porous Dallas defense, miserable offensive line, and turnover-prone quarterback play have all worked to reduce Zeke’s opportunities. However, this week he faces the Bengals who allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. With Andy Dalton back under center, the offensive can at least be relatively efficient, and Zeke is obviously the go-to red-zone threat for the team. Zeke has 20+ point potential in this game, and with his price tag at $6,600, that gives him 3x value upside. There are safer options available for less money in cash formats, but in GPP Zeke’s low ownership and strong upside makes him a great play.
Giovani Bernard ($5,000): Bernard hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points once over the past four weeks, and he isn’t going to be anyone’s favorite play this week. However, he is still getting a hefty receiving share even with Joe Burrow out and his pass-catching productivity gives him strong weekly upside. This week, the Bengals face the Cowboys who are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. This game has a lower over-under total, but Bernard is going to see enough work to get to double-digit PPR points with the upside for much more given the strong matchup. At such a low price tag, Bernard is a high-upside play as the clear three-down back for Cincy.
Other GPP options to consider: David Montgomery ($6,500), Mike Davis ($6,400), Miles Sanders ($6,200), Jonathan Taylor ($5,800), Kenyan Drake ($5,500), Devontae Booker ($5,300), Nyheim Hines ($5,200), J.D. McKissic ($4,900)
Derrick Henry ($8,700): Last week was a disappointing result for Derrick Henry has he ran just 15 times for 60 yards as the Titans fell behind by multiple scores well before halftime and were forced to air it out to attempt to get back into the game. The game script should flip entirely this week against the Jaguars who allow the most yards from scrimmage per game in the NFL this season. Henry is averaging 22.5 carries per game, so last week is a clear outlier. The Jaguars are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs and Henry has torched this team in the past. There are very few ways that Henry doesn’t finish with at least 20 PPR points in this game, so that baseline is locked in at a reasonable price tag. With the Titans favored by a sizable margin against a putrid Jacksonville defense, look for Henry to continue dominating perhaps his favorite team to play against.
James Robinson ($7,500): With double-digit fantasy points in every game this season and 22+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, Robinson is somehow still underpriced in DraftKings. He ranks third in the NFL in total touches behind only Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry while he’s run for 4.6 YPC despite playing behind a poor offensive line. Robinson also has 3.5 catches per game, so he is guaranteed work regardless of the game script. This week, he faces the Titans defense that allowed Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to combine for 32 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown last week. Robinson has a great chance to get to 20 PPR points, something he did the last time he faced this team, and his baseline makes him a perfect cash consideration.
David Montgomery ($6,500): With some great fantasy performances around the NFL as of late, David Montgomery has flown under the radar with his 25+ PPR points in each of his last two games. He has 18.5 touches on average over that span and has been the Bears’ top offensive weapon. This week, Montgomery draws another phenomenal matchup against the Texans who are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Houston has allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards per game and we can expect the Bears to try to establish the ground game early to keep the ball away from Deshaun Watson. Montgomery is a very safe option with legitimate 30-point upside given the matchup, so he’s a great GPP target as well.
Jonathan Taylor ($5,800): Taylor has averaged 21 touches per game over the past two weeks and has 15+ PPR points in each of those games, as well. He has 90+ rushing yards in both of those games and can be a very good fantasy option when given the opportunity. The Raiders have allowed the 6th-most fantasy points per game to RBs and have given up the second-most rushing touchdowns, so Taylor has a great chance to find the end-zone and add to his tally of for rushing touchdowns this season. Even if he doesn’t score, it looks like the Colts will continue to get Taylor more and more involved in advance of the playoffs, and I’m expecting him to win some people some money this weekend.
Other cash options to consider: Aaron Jones ($7,600), Mike Davis ($6,400), Wayne Gallman ($5,700), Melvin Gordon ($5,200), Giovani Bernard ($5,000), J.D. McKissic ($4,900)
Michael Thomas ($7,100): With his earlier injuries and now Taysom Hill under center for the Saints, Michael Thomas has hardly had the fantasy season most expected when he was a consensus first-round pick. Thomas still has yet to score a touchdown this season, but he has at least 9 receptions, 11 targets, and 104 yards in two of his last three games. The Eagles have been a middle-of-the-pack passing defense, but Thomas is a stellar talent and should be able to beat Darius Slay on the boundary. His role in the offense is very encouraging and I’d expect Thomas to see low ownership this week, making him a great GPP target. He has top-five WR potential this week, and is a near-lock to be a top-15 guy.
Terry McLaurin ($6,700): Last week, the Steelers keyed in heavily on Terry McLaurin and held him to just 2 catches for 14 yards, his worst outing of the season by far. However, this week’s matchup sets up much better for him as the 49ers have allowed some huge numbers to WR1s in Stefon Diggs (10 catches), Davante Adams (12 catches), and D.K. Metcalf (12 catches) since Week 8. McLaurin has had a few slow games and hasn’t scored in four straight games, so I’m expecting lower ownership for him this week. He’s an elite talent and is averaging just under 6 targets per game despite Washington’s quarterback issues. The offense has been more efficient with Alex Smith under center, and San Francsico’s back-end coverage is pretty beatable, so I love McLaurin as an under-the-radar play for GPPs.
Deebo Samuel ($6,400): Samuel was limited in practice all week, but he’s reportedly good to go for this week’s game. Washington has been tough to throw against all season, but they’ve actually allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five games. Samuel is also a unique talent with his ability to get touches on hand-offs, end-arounds, touch passes, and more. He has 17 catches on 22 targets for 206 yards in his two games since returning from a prior injury, and is a big play waiting to happen for San Francisco. Samuel’s ownership will likely be lower given the injury as well as the presumably tougher matchup, but Samuel is in a better position than most expect, which makes him a great GPP target.
Breshad Perriman ($3,900): The Jets’ passing offense has been difficult to trust this season, but with Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder hobbled, it looks like Breshad Perriman could be in for a massive target share. Prior to last week’s disappointing 1-22 line, Perriman had registered 11+ PPR points in three straight games with three touchdowns over that span. This week, he faces the Seahawks who have allowed the most passing yards this season and are allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. There aren’t many reliable weapons for Sam Darnold outside of Perriman who aren’t injured or inconsistent, so Perriman could get back to the 7-8 target range this week. In a plus matchup, he’s a great high-upside GPP flier at this price.
Other GPP options to consider: Chris Godwin ($6,300), Robby Anderson ($6,200), Corey Davis ($5,700), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400), D.J. Chark ($5,300), Sterling Shepard ($5,200), Curtis Samuel ($5,200), T.Y. Hilton ($5,100), Sammy Watkins ($4,900), Tyler Boyd ($4,900), Tee Higgins ($4,800), Allen Lazard ($4,800), Mike Williams ($4,700), Demarcus Robinson ($3,800)
Keenan Allen ($7,700): Prior to last week’s disappointing output of 5 catches for 48 yards, Keenan Allen had scored doubled-digit fantasy points in 10 straight games. He has seen a whopping 133 targets this season, the most in the NFL, and draws a phenomenal matchup this week against the Falcons who allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the 2nd-most passing yards per game. Allen’s ownership is going to be huge, so he’s more of a cash guy than a GPP target. However, his combination of floor and ceiling makes him a fine GPP play if paired with guys with a higher range of outcomes. Regardless, Allen is seemingly a lock for 20+ fantasy points in this game and that makes him an elite cash target.
Justin Jefferson ($7,400): What an absurd rookie season it’s been for Justin Jefferson. He ranks 4th in the NFL with 1,039 receiving yards and is on pace for a whopping 81 catches for 1,385 yards and 9 touchdowns. His price continues to elevate in DraftKings, but I don’t mind one bit as he’s one of the most elite and reliable fantasy wide receivers on a weekly basis. Jefferson gets a juicy matchup this week, as well, with the Buccaneers on the docket – they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past five weeks. Justin Jefferson has proven his elite upside, so he can be played in GPPs, but his ownership can be problematic in larger tournaments. Regardless, I think he’s going to have a massive week in an ongoing special rookie season.
Robby Anderson ($6,200): Like Justin Jefferson, Robby Anderson is a guy who I’m projecting to have a massive week but a guy who’s ownership makes him difficult to play in GPPs. Nonetheless, Anderson ranks inside the top-12 in both receptions and receiving yards, and he should be able to take advantage of a Broncos’ secondary set to be without A.J. Bouye, Bryce Callahan, and Essang Bassey, their top three cornerbacks. The Panthers will be without D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey this week, so Anderson is going to be the top target in the offense, and he should be able to take advantage of a great matchup. There is some downside here, particularly with Anderson having just 2 touchdowns all season, but his baseline makes him a solid cash target.
Allen Lazard ($4,800): While Lazard has just 9 catches over the past three weeks, there’s something to be said about his standing as Aaron Rodgers’ second-favorite target. He’s averaging 12.7 PPR points per game this season and has averaged 15.7 YPR, so he has big-play potential. I want to load up on guys from the Packers-Lions game this week with the high over-under total, and Lazard can certainly take advantage of the Lions’ secondary that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers over the past three weeks. Lazard’s matchups get infinitely easier moving forward after facing the Colts, Bears, and Eagles the past three weeks, and I’m expecting him to take advantage of a soft Lions defense this week. With his talent and target share as the WR2 in the offense, he’s a solid value at this price.
Other cash options to consider: Davante Adams ($9,300), Tyreek Hill ($8,500), Calvin Ridley ($7,500), A.J. Brown ($7,300), Tyler Lockett ($7,200), Michael Thomas ($7,100), Adam Thielen ($7,000), Allen Robinson ($6,800), Marvin Jones ($5,800), Corey Davis ($5,700), Sterling Shepard ($5,200), Keke Coutee ($5,000), Tim Patrick ($4,200), Demarcus Robinson ($3,800)
Robert Tonyan ($4,200): In GPP lineups, I’m rarely inclined to spend up for tight ends, but I certainly want someone with multi-touchdown upside if I am going to spend up. Robert Tonyan fits that description as he has 8 touchdowns in 12 games this season and has evolved into one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite receiving weapons. The Packers’ offense has the highest implied points total of the week, and I’m looking to stack up all of their offensive players. Tonyan has 13+ PPR points in three straight weeks with a touchdown in each of those games, and he’s one of the few guys worth paying up for this week. Look for Tonyan to have another top-five tight end finish this week.
Jordan Akins ($2,900): The other profitable strategy at tight end in GPP lineups is to punt the position and take a low-cost player with the upside to heavily outproduce their cost. Akins is just the TE30 on the season and he has just 2 catches for 10 yards over the past two weeks. However, the Bears have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends over the past five weeks as well as the third-most on the season. Akins may not be a reliable option, but he’s flashed talent in the past and he catches passes from Deshaun Watson. The Texans continue to adjust to their offense without Will Fuller, and Akins could get more involved moving forward. At this price tag, he’s my favorite low-cost flier this week.
Other GPP options to consider: Noah Fant ($4,100), Hayden Hurst ($3,700), Logan Thomas ($3,300), Jacob Hollister ($3,100)
Travis Kelce ($7,400): There aren’t enough superlatives to describe what Travis Kelce has been able to accomplish this season, and he’s the TE1 on the year by a sizable margin as he’s averaging 20 PPR points per game. Matchups hardly matter for Kelce as he has scored 15+ PPR points in all but two games this year, although he does have a favorable matchup against the Dolphins who have been elite against wide receivers but more susceptible to tight ends as of late as they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position over the past five weeks. As Patrick Mahomes’s go-to target, Kelce is dominant and can be relied upon with confidence.
Hunter Henry ($4,400): With 78 targets on the season, Henry ranks 4th among all tight ends in involvement in his offense. He has only seen fewer than seven targets in four of twelve games. The Falcons’ putrid pass defense has extended to the tight end position where they allow the 2nd-most touchdowns to TEs on the year. Henry provides stability at an unpredictable position with 13+ PPR points in three straight games prior to last week’s disappointing performance from the entire offense. Herbert should bounce back in a huge way this week, and Henry is going to be a huge part of it. He can be utilized in GPP lineups just as easily as cash games this week.
Other cash options to consider: Rob Gronkowski ($4,800), Robert Tonyan ($4,200), Dalton Schultz ($3,500), Jacob Hollister ($3,100), Kyle Rudolph ($2,900)
New Orleans Saints ($3,800): Even before the Eagles announced that they were making the change to Jalen Hurts at quarterback, the Saints were on my radar as the top DST play this week. The Eagles have allowed Wentz to be sacked 4.4 times per game, the most in the NFL, and the Saints have 36 sacks this season, the fourth-most in the NFL. The Eagles have turned the ball over 22 times, tied for the third-most in football, and that won’t change right away with Hurts under center. I don’t trust Philly’s offense at all right now and New Orleans has been one of the best defensive teams in the NFL this season. This is a no-brainer pick.
Washington Football Team ($2,800): One of the best ways to identify opportunities for DST success is to target high sack numbers – Washington has the fifth-most sacks this season and San Francisco has allowed it’s quarterbacks to be sacked 2.2 times per game, the 14th-most in the NFL. With rookie Chase Young leading a dominant front seven, Washington has held opponents to the second-fewest passing yards this season. Washington should be able to capitalize on San Francisco’s propensity for turnovers – they have coughed up the ball 22 times this season, the third-most in the NFL. Washington ranks 11th in DST scoring, so they’re a strong play in a plus matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,200): The Eagles’ DST hasn’t actually been all that bad this season, as bad as the team has performed, as they have the 2nd-most sacks this season. Although they do rank middle-of-the-pack in most respects, the Eagles rank 12th in DST fantasy scoring this season. They face the Saints this week, and we’ve already seen Taysom Hill fumble a handful of times this season. The introduction of Jalen Hurts at quarterback should provide this team with a spark and I expect this to be a lower-scoring game in general. At a price tag of $2,200, it’s hard to find a much better value play at DST for GPP lineups where maximizing cost is crucial.
Other DSTs to consider: Arizona Cardinals ($2,700), New York Giants ($2,600)
One of my favorite strategies to use for DFS has quickly become game stacks. By loading up on players from the same game, you can reduce variability in your lineup and take hold of some of the highest-scoring games on the week that will guarantee you fantasy production. I’ll start off my sample lineups with a few GPP game stacks for some of my favorite games on the week and then jump into some cash game lineups where game stacking is less important and overall production is king as you look to finish in the top half of your pool.
Lineup #1: GPP Game Stack, Vikings @ Buccaneers
QB: Kirk Cousins $6,200
RB: Ronald Jones $6,100
RB: David Montgomery $6,500
WR: Justin Jefferson $7,400
WR: Adam Thielen $7,000
WR: Antonio Brown $5,500
TE: Mike Gesicki $4,600
FLEX: Breshad Perriman $3,900
DST: Washington Football Team $2,800
Lineup #2: GPP Game Stack, Falcons @ Chargers
QB: Justin Herbert $6,800
RB: Austin Ekeler $7,000
RB: Jonathan Taylor $5,800
WR: Calvin Ridley $7,500
WR: Deebo Samuel $6,400
WR: Mike Williams $4,700
TE: Hunter Henry $4,400
FLEX: Melvin Gordon $5,200
DST: Philadelphia Eagles $2,200
Lineup #3: Cash
QB: Aaron Rodgers $7,500
RB: Derrick Henry $8,700
RB: Giovani Bernard $5,000
WR: Allen Robinson $6,800
WR: Marvin Jones $5,800
WR: Allen Lazard $5,000
TE: Jacob Hollister $3,100
FLEX: Marvin Jones Jr. $5,800
DST: New Orleans Saints $3,800