DraftKings NFL Wild Card Saturday Top Plays, Game Stacks + Optimal DFS Lineups

The NFL regular season came to a close last weekend, and it was a good week for me in DFS. My four most-played QBs – Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, and Tom Brady – were all smash plays, and I fared well in my tournament games as well as my cash lineups. As we head into the postseason, DFS ratchets up in intensity. These teams enter win-or-go-home situations each and every week, and with fewer games on the slate, the margins are much finer in DFS. This week, there are six Wild Card games on the slate, and I’m taking a different approach to normal. I’ll be breaking down each game with pace of play, over/under, and projected fantasy points for each position, identifying which players are good targets this week in DraftKings. I’m also calculating the projected pace of play for each offense using their time of possession per game divided by the number of plays per game. This article started to get very long, so I’m going to split up the Wild Card slate into two articles, one for the Saturday games and one for the Sunday games. Without further ado, let’s dive into this tantalizing playoff slate.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

Game Information

Date/time: 1/9/21, 1:05 PM EST

Over/under: 51.5 points

Implied points: Colts 22.5, Bills 29

Pace: Colts run 64.5 plays per game (16th-most), Bills run 64.6 plays per game (15th-most)

Indianapolis Colts Offense

The Colts’ offense scored 28.2 points per game during the regular season, the 9th-most in the NFL. The run game was the focal point of their efforts as they ran the ball on 44.5% of snaps, the eighth-most often in football. Indianapolis features one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a brilliant play-caller in the offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich. The Colts take on a Bills team that had a middle-of-the-pack defense for most of the regular season.

Quarterback: Philip Rivers ($5,500) is an interesting value play in this matchup given the high over-under total. His string of multi-passing touchdown games snapped the past two weeks after five games in a row with 2+ passing scores. However, the Bills are a middle-of-the-pack passing defense and have some beatable cornerbacks outside of Tre’Davious White. Rivers is guaranteed to have low ownership this week, making him an enticing pivot in large tournaments, and this game could get out of hand with how hot the Bills’ offense has been. That could create some valuable garbage-time scoring opportunities for Rivers.

Running Back: After a slow start to the year following Marlon Mack’s injury, Jonathan Taylor ($7,900) has seen much more of a workload as of late. He racked up 30 carries against the Jaguars last week, running at a wild 8.4 YPC clip to hit 253 yards on the day and adding 2 touchdowns. The Colts will likely look to get him very involved this week to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands, and the Bills have surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year. Nyheim Hines ($4,700) is also a very interesting target, particularly if you see this game ending up being one where the Colts have to air the ball out late to catch up. Hines has the primary pass-catching role out of the backfield for Indianapolis, and we know Rivers loves to utilize his backs in the passing game. The Bills have allowed 4.6 YPC this year, the seventh-highest in the NFL, and are very beatable on the ground.

Wide Receiver: Given the projected high-scoring nature of this game, there has to be some value in Indy’s receiving corps. T.Y. Hilton ($5,100) has been the leader in the receiving department for Indy with 5+ targets in each of his past eight games. Still, he’ll likely see a lot of the former All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White this week, one of the best corners in the NFL. Zach Pascal ($3,700) draws a very favorable matchup against Buffalo’s slot corner, Taron Johnson, and has scored 3 touchdowns over the past 3 weeks. He’s one of my favorite low-priced receiver options this week. Michael Pittman Jr. ($3,500) has shown some flashes in his rookie season, but he hasn’t surpassed 40 yards over the past three weeks and is clearly third on the target list behind Hilton and Pascal. If you see this game turning into a shootout, though, Pittman could have some value.

Tight End: The Bills have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, so there could be some real value at this position for Indy, especially with how Philip Rivers loves to throw to his tight ends. Good luck figuring out which guy gets the bulk of the work, though. Trey Burton (47 targets), Mo Alie-Cox (39 targets), and Jack Doyle (33 targets) have all served as the #1 guy at TE at various points this season. Doyle ($2,900) is the highest-priced among the three, and he does have 3+ catches in three of his last four games. Burton ($2,600) was held without a catch last week and had a combined four catches over the past four weeks. Alie-Cox ($2,500) also didn’t have a catch last week, but he’s provided the most upside for this team’s position.

DST: The Colts’ DST ($2,300) is the second-lowest priced unit on the week, but they’re not on the radar for me against Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense, which has been the hottest in football over the past six or so weeks.

Buffalo Bills Offense

Quarterback: In a normal season that didn’t include absolutely obscene production from Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen ($7,500) would be a clear-cut MVP candidate. He was the QB1 in fantasy during the regular season behind 4,544 passing yards and 45 total touchdowns, and he’s thrown 15 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions over his last five games. Allen has some of the most pass-catching talents in the NFL, as well. The Colts have been tough on opposing QBs, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but I still expect Allen to produce plenty of points against this team. He provides a great baseline for cash lineups and a massive upside with the weekend’s second-highest over-under total.

Running Back: The Bills’ offensive excellence has not provided much in the way of fantasy points out of the backfield, other than Josh Allen, of course. Devin Singletary ($4,300) and Zack Moss ($4,600) are available at a discount this week. Still, I like the Colts’ defensive line in this matchup with DeForest Buckner, Denico Autry, and Justin Houston against Buffalo’s offensive line. Moss has 4 rushing touchdowns to 2 for Singletary, but Singletary has 38 receptions to Moss’s 14, so Singletary may be the more appealing matchup as a pass-catching specialist. However, with other values available at the position, I’m not thrilled about either guy.

Wide Receiver: Stefon Diggs ($7,700) was one of the best receivers in the NFL this season as he led the league with 127 catches for 1,535 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s deservedly the most expensive receiver in DraftKings this week, and I have no problem spending up on him with his rare combination of baseline and ceiling production. With the high over-under in this game, John Brown ($4,700) and Gabriel Davis ($4,000) provide some upside, while Cole Beasley ($5,300) is a solid cash play, assuming he suits up. I don’t expect Xavier Rhodes to shadow Diggs for the entire game, and T.J. Carrie has been pretty beatable on the outside, so all of these receivers have big-play potential. Beasley also has the advantage against Kenny Moore in the slot.

Tight End: The Colts have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, primarily thanks to strong coverage play from safeties Khari Willis and Julian Blackmon as well as linebacker Darius Leonard. With just three games all year with more than 2 catches, Dawson Knox ($3,100) has not been a focal point of the offense, and he’s not someone I’m looking to play in DFS this week.

DST: The Bills’ DST ranked as the #8 unit in fantasy scoring, but I’m nervous about deploying them against the Colts. Indianapolis has just 15 turnovers this year, the third-fewest in the NFL, and with the projected high over-under in this game, I don’t expect the Bills’ defense to win out. With a limited upside, there are better options for DFS.

Recap:

GPP Plays: Philip Rivers ($5,500), Nyheim Hines ($4,700), Zach Pascal ($3,700), Josh Allen ($7,500), Stefon Diggs ($7,700), John Brown ($4,700), Gabriel Davis ($4,000)

Cash Plays: Jonathan Taylor ($7,900), T.Y. Hilton ($5,100), Josh Allen ($7,500), Stefon Diggs ($7,700), Cole Beasley ($5,300)

 Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Game Information

Date/time: 1/9/21, 4:40 PM EST

Over/under: 42.5 points

Implied points: Rams 19.5, Seahawks 23

Pace: Rams run 68 plays per game (3rd-most), Seahawks run 63.9 plays per game (2oth-most)

Los Angeles Rams Offense

The Rams’ offense has taken a step back over the last couple of years as they have become more of a defensive-oriented team. They ranked just 22nd in the NFL this season with 23.3 points per game, but 11th with 377 yards per game, indicating a weak red-zone offense and inefficient kicking game. It’s unclear if LA will have Jared Goff ready to go this week as he’s dealing with a broken thumb.

Quarterback: There hasn’t been a clear indication out of Rams’ camp as to whether or not they are expecting Jared Goff ($6,000) to be medically cleared for this week’s game. Goff has only scored 16 fantasy points per game, making him the QB18 on the year, and he’s scored under 11 fantasy points in each of his two matchups with the Seahawks. If Goff didn’t go, John Wolford ($4,900) would be in line to start, and he’s a semi-enticing GPP play with his low price and matchup against Seattle, who allows the 7th-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Wolford scored 12.8 fantasy points in the lone start of his career last week against Arizona.

Running Back: Darrell Henderson was the team’s leading rusher for much of this season, but he will likely be out for the extent of the Rams’ playoff run with a high ankle sprain that landed him on Injured Reserve. Cam Akers ($5,100) has now been ruled active for this game and should get back to the offense’s lead role. He practiced fully on Wednesday. Akers established himself as the lead back over the past several weeks as he has seen an average of 23.5 touches per game over his past four outings. Seattle has been a fairly stout run defense, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game, but Akers is expected to be a big part of LA’s gameplan and is a clear value at this price. Malcolm Brown ($4,100) isn’t a huge threat to steal touches with just 11 total carries over the past four weeks.

Wide Receiver: Regardless of whether it is a hobbled Jared Goff or an inexperienced John Wolford under center for the Rams this week, I have concerns about their passing volume. Cooper Kupp ($6,000) and Robert Woods ($6,200) were both a bit underwhelming this year as neither player topped 1,000 receiving yards. However, the Seahawks do present a strong matchup as they’re allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Kupp should be good to go after his stint on the COVID-19 IR, but he hasn’t topped 15 PPR points in either matchup with Seattle this year. Woods hasn’t even topped 9 PPR points in either game against Seattle. Both guys at least have some cash appeal, but the upside is minimal, so I’m not recommending either in GPPs. With a low over-under, uncertainty at QB, and competition for catches, Josh Reynolds ($3,600) and Van Jefferson ($3,100) are tough sells as well.

Tight End: Tyler Higbee ($3,400) leads the Rams at this position and finished as the TE18 during the regular season. He saw 3 catches in each of his two meetings with Seattle. Gerald Everett ($3,000) saw 2 catches in each of his two prior meetings with Seattle. The Seahawks allow the second-most passing yards per game, so both of these tight ends can potentially be attractive punt plays if you’re not looking to spend at the position.

DST: The Rams’ DST ($2,900) led the regular season in fantasy points per game at the position, and they racked up 11 total sacks across two meetings with the Seahawks. This week, Seattle could be without Duane Brown, putting them in a precarious position against such a talented front seven. I’m not scared off by the Seahawks’ offense, and I’ll happily deploy the Rams’ DST at a deflated price.

Seattle Seahawks Offense

The Seahawks’ offense started the year on fire and came back down to earth over the last few weeks of the season to finish 8th with 28.7 points per game. After scoring 30+ points in seven of their first eight games, Seattle hit that mark just once over the final eight games, including an average of just 18 points against the Rams.

Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($6,700) was the QB1 in fantasy football for the first half of the season – he averaged 28.5 fantasy points per game over his first eight games – and then completely fell off a cliff, scoring just 16.4 fantasy points per game over the second half of the season. He also scored just 14.9 fantasy points per game in his two matchups with the Rams. LA allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so I’m not thrilled about Wilson’s upside this week. He’s an okay cash play, but not someone I’d consider in GPP lineups with his limited upside.

Running Back: Chris Carson ($5,900) has been really underwhelming this season, and he didn’t surpass 100 rushing yards in any of his 12 starts this year. He did register 3.1 catches per game, so he was a solid fantasy back with 15.6 PPR points per game. However, he scored just 10.9 fantasy points in his one matchup against the Rams. The lower-scoring nature of this game limits his upside, but Carson provides some strong value at this price as he’s expected to see a full workload for this game. Carlos Hyde ($4,400) and Rashaad Penny ($4,000) are off the radar for me, and Carson is much more of a cash play than GPP.

Wide Receiver: This season marked the full-scale breakout of D.K. Metcalf ($6,700) – he finished with 83 catches for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. He wasn’t exactly the hallmark of consistency, though, as he finished with single-digit PPR points in four of his sixteen games and fewer than 15 PPR points in another four games. He also caught just 8 total balls for 87 yards against the Rams as Jalen Ramsey got the better of him in their two matchups. Tyler Lockett ($6,900) struggled over the second half of the season, but he broke through with 33 PPR points in the last game of the season. He finished with just 8 catches for 110 yards against the Rams this year, though. While Ramsey is the best cover corner on the team, Darius Williams and Troy Hill provide excellent coverage as well. David Moore ($3,000) is a real value, but the lack of passing volume holds back this entire receiving corps in a brutal matchup.

Tight End: The Rams’ secondary has been elite against wide receivers, but they have been slightly less resistant to tight ends. Jacob Hollister ($2,700) has gotten the start for Seattle in each of his last three games and has scored a touchdown in two of them, including one against the Rams. He’s surpassed 20 yards just twice all year, but he’s a prime punt target at tight end with his potential to find the end zone. Will Dissly ($2,600) also starts for Seattle, but he’s reached the end zone just twice all season. Greg Olsen ($2,500) has played in just one game since Week 11 and is likely to have a snap limit with his plantar fascia tear. Hollister is the guy to target, and he’s a solid punt play this week.

DST: The Seahawks’ DST ($2,700) was completely off the radar at the beginning of the season as they were carved up by opposing passing offenses. However, they scored 9+ fantasy points in six of seven games to close the year and are a strong target against a Rams’ offense that will either be playing a hobbled Jared Goff or an inexperienced John Wolford.

Recap:

GPP: Cam Akers ($5,100), Rams DST ($2,900), Chris Carson ($5,900), Jacob Hollister ($2,700), Seahawks DST ($2,700)

Cash: Cam Akers ($5,100), Robert Woods ($6,200), Cooper Kupp ($6,000), Rams DST ($2,900), Russell Wilson ($6,700), Chris Carson ($5,900), Tyler Lockett ($6,900), Jacob Hollister ($2,700), Seahawks DST ($2,700)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Game Information

Date/time: 1/9/21, 8:15 PM EST

Over/under: 45 points

Implied points: Buccaneers 26.75, Washington 18.25

Pace: Buccaneers run 63.6 plays per game (23rd-most), Washington runs 65.7 plays per game (8th-most)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense

In Tampa’s first season with Tom Brady at quarterback, the Bucs ranked as the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL with 30.8 points per game. Things have been even better lately as they’ve scored 37 points per game following their Week 13 bye. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest points per game, however.

Quarterback: Tom Brady ($6,900) has been an excellent fantasy QB lately. He’s thrown for 12 touchdowns to just 1 interception since the team’s Week 13 bye and has carved up some very beatable defenses in the Vikings, Lions, and Falcons (twice) to the tune of 24.8 fantasy points per game. However, he faces his toughest test of the past several weeks in Washington who allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. However, Tampa has an excellent offensive line that has surrendered the fourth-fewest sacks per game, as well as a brilliant crew of playmakers (more on that shortly). That gives Brady a solid baseline for cash lineups, but he lacks the game-breaking upside in this matchup for GPP lineups. However, his ownership should be flattened due to the matchup.

Running Back: Ronald Jones ($5,500) led the team in rushing this season with 192 carries for 978 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he missed a few games towards the end of the year with a finger injury and COVID-19. He made his return last week and racked up 12 carries for 78 yards and a score. Washington’s front seven is stout and has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. However, given that he’s likely to see 15+ touches in this game, I am interested in him for GPPs and cash games. If he can reach the end zone, he would provide strong value on his current price. Leonard Fournette ($4,500) saw just seven touches last week in Jones’s return, so he’s off the radar now that he’s clearly not the lead back for the team.

Wide Receiver: Washington has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making this a less than ideal matchup, but Tampa has some elite talent at receiver. Chris Godwin ($7,000) is the highest-priced player for Tampa and the third-highest priced wide receiver overall. Last week, he had a breakthrough game with 5 catches for 133 yards and 2 scores against Atlanta, good for 30.3 fantasy points, his best output of the season. The duo of outside corners in Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby has been excellent for Washington. Still, they’ve been very vulnerable in the slot as Jimmy Moreland has been inconsistent in that spot. Godwin spends the majority of his time in the slot, so he’ll see a lot of Moreland, and he’s scored in three straight games. Godwin is an excellent target for GPP or cash lineups. Mike Evans ($6,500) is dealing with a knee injury and is reportedly a true game-time decision this weekend. With the structure of this weekend, there will be opportunities for a pivot, but he’s not a great target against this defense given the injury. Antonio Brown ($6,100) has started to see his role expand, and he delivered with 11 catches for 138 yards and 2 scores last week, good for 36.8 fantasy points and his best game in a Bucs jersey. He has a tough matchup this week but is talented enough to make him a strong cash play. He’d be an enticing GPP target if Evans is unable to go, as well. Scotty Miller ($3,400) would also be an interesting punt play at receiver if Evans doesn’t play.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski ($4,000) finished the regular season as the TE8 in fantasy football. He suffered from his fair share of inconsistency, as most tight ends do, but he hit double-digit PPR points seven different times and scored seven touchdowns in his first season with Tampa. If Mike Evans doesn’t play this week, Gronk would also see a huge uptick in red-zone looks. Cameron Brate ($2,700) becomes an intriguing punt play at TE if Evans doesn’t play as the Bucs could play more 2-tight end sets against Washington’s stout front seven.

DST: Tampa Bay’s DST ($3,400) is the 4th-highest priced unit on the week, but there’s reason to believe they could score the most fantasy points on the week. Tampa scored the 9th-most fantasy points at the position during the regular season, and Washington allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to the position. The Washington offensive line is better than most suspect, but Tampa’s front seven is still deadly, and at the very least, it’s hard to see Washington scoring many points this week.

Washington Football Team Offense

Amidst inconsistency at the quarterback position and little in the way of consistent play from skill position players, Washington scored just 20.9 points per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. With Alex Smith under center, however, they’ve scored about 5 more points per game. Smith is expected to suit up this weekend, although we could see some Taylor Heineke as well. Washington faces a stout Tampa defense that allowed the 8th-fewest points per game during the regular season.

Quarterback: Alex Smith ($5,100) is dealing with a calf injury that has hampered him for the past few weeks, and he hasn’t been a high-upside option this year as he’s scored just 8.9 fantasy points per game. He has no mobility following his gruesome leg injury and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year, so he’s not exactly been a consistent fantasy option. Tampa’s secondary also gets some much-needed reinforcement with Carlton Davis’s expected to return this week. All that said, you can make the case that Smith is a solid cash play given this low price tag and a semi-beatable Tampa defense. However, he’s off my radar in most lineups with the report that Ron Rivera is inclined to let Taylor Heinecke ($4,100) get some snaps at QB.

Running Back: Tampa has the best-run defense in the NFL as they’re allowing 3.6 YPC and 80.6 rushing yards per game, both the fewest in the NFL. Antonio Gibson ($5,700) dealt with a turf toe injury midseason, but he saw 33 touches for 150 yards from scrimmage over the last two games of the season. With his deflated price tag and expected low ownership, he’s someone I’d consider in GPP lineups with his potential to reach the end zone (11 rushing touchdowns this year). J.D. McKissic ($4,900) is also intriguing with his whopping 80 catches for 589 yards and 2 scores this year. He’s been a huge part of the passing game, especially as a check-down option for Alex Smith. He could see a ton of receptions in the flat against an aggressive Tampa front seven. McKissic provides a strong baseline with double-digit touches in four straight weeks before the season’s final week.

Wide Receiver: The Washington wide receiver room has often started and ended with Terry McLaurin ($6,300) this season. He caught 87 balls for 1,118 yards and 4 touchdowns during the regular season and finished as a top-20 receiver in fantasy scoring despite quarterback’s inconsistency. It’s a major credit to McLaurin’s talent that he scored double-digit PPR points in 13 of 15 games given that inconsistency at QB and Washington will need to open up the offense this week to keep up with Brady and the Bucs. Tampa does get Carlton Davis back this week alongside Jamel Dean, a solid cornerback pairing, but McLaurin has the advantage talent-wise. McLaurin’s ankle injury doesn’t scare me as he gutted out 7 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown last week with the injury, and I don’t see his ownership being too prohibitive this week. Cam Sims ($3,900) has emerged lately with 7.1 targets per game over the past three weeks and delivered with 5 catches for 43 yards against the Eagles in Week 17. He’s an intriguing GPP dart throw.

Tight End: Logan Thomas ($4,900) deserved a Pro Bowl nod this season with 72 catches for 670 yards and 6 touchdowns this season – he’s been the second or third most consistent pass catcher for Washington, depending on how you feel about McKissic. Thomas has provided remarkable consistency at a position that rarely features any type of stability. Tampa has been vulnerable against tight ends, surrendering the 11th-most fantasy points to the position, so Thomas is a viable option despite a higher price than most other tight ends. I’d rather go with Andrews or punt in GPPs. However, I will play him in cash lineups.

DST: A tremendous real-life defense, Washington ($2,400) ranked 6th in per-game fantasy scoring. However, Tampa’s offense has been very consistent and not very turnover-prone with Tom Brady at the helm, so they’ve surrendered just 3.8 fantasy points per game to opposing DSTs, the 7th-fewest. There are many higher-upside options this week.

Recap:

GPP: Ronald Jones ($5,500), Chris Godwin ($7,000), Scotty Miller ($3,400), Tampa DST ($3,400), Rob Gronkowski ($4,000), Cameron Brate ($2,700), Antonio Gibson ($5,700), J.D. McKissic ($4,900), Terry McLaurin ($6,300), Cam Sims ($3,900)

Cash: Tom Brady ($6,900), Ronald Jones ($5,500), Chris Godwin ($7,000), Antonio Brown ($6,100), Tampa DST ($3,400), Rob Gronkowski ($4,000), J.D. McKissic ($4,900), Terry McLaurin ($6,300), Logan Thomas ($4,900)

Optimal Saturday Lineup

QB: Josh Allen $7,500
RB: Cam Akers $5,100
RB: Ronald Jones $5,500
WR: Stefon Diggs $7,700
WR: Chris Godwin $7,000
WR: Terry McLaurin $6,300
TE: Jacob Hollister $2,700
FLEX: John Brown $4,700
DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3,300

QB: Tom Brady $6,900
RB: Jonathan Taylor $7,900
RB: J.D. McKissic $4,800
WR: Mike Evans $6,500
WR: Robert Woods $6,200
WR: Gabriel Davis $4,000
TE: Logan Thomas $4,900
FLEX: Chris Carson $5,900
DST: Los Angeles Rams $2,900