DraftKings Super Bowl Showdown Picks: Who is Chalk and Who to Buy

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The Super Bowl has arrived, and with it comes plenty at stake. The Chiefs and Buccaneers both ranked as top ten offenses and defenses in scoring during the regular season, and both teams provided plenty of exciting fantasy options this year. The two sides played earlier this season, and the Chiefs almost surrendered a 17-0 first-quarter lead, winning the game 27-24. Will Kansas City’s offense repeat its hot start? One important aspect of this game to pay attention to is the injuries to Kansas City’s starting offensive tackles, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher. Tampa racked up 48 sacks during the regular season, the fifth-most in the NFL, and have a potent pass-rush by all accounts. The defense’s ability to get to Patrick Mahomes with three and four-man rushes will be critical in this game.

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Captain Spot

The Captain in your DraftKings lineup will likely make or break things as that player earns 1.5x the number of fantasy points they would accrue in a flex spot. Patrick Mahomes ($18,000 CPT) is likely going to be the highest owned player in this spot, and it’s hard to argue with his results. Mahomes torched the Buccaneers in Week 12 with 31.3 fantasy points as he completed 37 of 49 passes for 462 yards and 3 touchdowns. It’s important to note that production came in a game where the Chiefs were in the lead wire-to-wire. That provides a huge boost to his floor, as even in the unlikely event that Kansas City runs away with this game, Mahomes will still be airing out the ball. However, Mahomes is expected to see a massive amount of ownership, perhaps even reaching the 60% ballpark. One viable strategy can be to play one of the team’s elite receivers at the captain spot and slot Mahomes into a flex position if you want to benefit from the Chiefs’ juicy offensive output. Tyreek Hill ($15,600 CPT) and Travis Kelce ($16,500 CPT) are viable options, but I’d lean towards Hill in my captain spot with his massive upside. More on both of these guys in a minute.

If you’re feeling frisky, you could buck the trend and look to the Tampa offense to carry more fantasy value. Tom Brady ($15,000 CPT) is $3,000 cheaper than Mahomes, and that amount of savings gives you a ton of flexibility for the rest of your lineup. Brady was the #7 scoring QB during the regular season with 21.1 fantasy points per game, and he was right in line with 21.7 fantasy points against the Chiefs during the regular season. Brady does have a poor history against Steve Spagnulo, Kansas City’s defensive coordinator. He suffered a devastating loss to Spagnulo’s Giants’ defense in Super Bowl XLII. He’s 2-3 in his career against Spagnulo, including 0-2 with 4 TDs to 3 INTs against him as the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator. However, Brady has been on a roll. In his six games before an uncharacteristic 3-interception day against Green Bay, he threw for 18 touchdowns to 1 interception. Brady is back in the Super Bowl with his best supporting cast in several years – don’t count him out, ever. I’m avoiding Bucs pass-catchers in my captain spot with how difficult it has been to predict which Tampa receiver will lead the team in targets in a given week.

Flex Spot

I talked about Tyreek Hill ($10,400 FLEX) a bit in the captain section, but he deserves more discussion. The Kansas City wideout had a tremendous regular season with 87 catches for 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns, and Hill finished as the #2 receiver in fantasy scoring. In a prior meeting with the Buccaneers, he registered 13 catches for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns – that was good for an obscene 57.9 PPR points. Tampa’s secondary has gotten healthier and more competitive as the season has gone on. Still, Hill provides an enormous challenge for any defender, and Tampa finished the year as a bottom-half fantasy passing defense. Hill is a bit cheaper than Travis Kelce, and while his ownership is expected to be overwhelming, I see him as a must-play.

Travis Kelce ($11,000 FLEX) is expected to be the second-highest-owned player in this week’s slate. He was not only the TE1 in fantasy by a sizable margin, but he would also have ranked as the WR4 in per-game fantasy scoring during the regular season. Kelce’s line against Tampa earlier this year was a bit underwhelming – he had 8 catches for 82 yards (16.2 fantasy points) – but Kelce is a mismatch for every defender in the NFL. Last week, he had a monstrous game with 13 catches for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he wound up being a must-play in the Championship Round slate. I can see a similar outcome this week, and I am interested in betting on Kelce to score two touchdowns as a player prop. Regardless of if he hits paydirt twice again, Kelce is a strong bet to end the night with the most fantasy points of any non-quarterback.

Tampa Bay has some high-value pass-catchers and arguably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL in Chris Godwin ($8,800 FLEX), Mike Evans ($8,400 FLEX), and Antonio Brown ($6,200 FLEX). If not for his lingering knee injury that still has his status up-in-the-air, I would be hailing Brown as an underpriced, high-upside touchdown threat. However, the injury clouds things up a bit. Godwin had 8 catches for 97 yards against the Chiefs (17.7 PPR points) earlier this season, and he’s averaged 8.8 targets over his last five games. He’s Brady’s top target, and while he hasn’t scored a touchdown in his last two games, he’s still a strong play. Mike Evans scored two touchdowns against the Chiefs the last time these teams played, and he’s the most likely multi-touchdown player in this game with three such performances this season. He provides just the type of upside that I love to have in my lineups.

The Chiefs have some lower-priced options on offense to consider, as well. Demarcus Robinson has been placed on the COVID-19 list after a close contact tracing, so Mecole Hardman ($5,600 FLEX), Sammy Watkins ($4,200 FLEX), and Byron Pringle ($1,800 FLEX) should see much more of an opportunity. Hardman caught a pass for a touchdown against the Bills in the AFC Championship, and he also had one carry for 50 yards. However, his lack of consistent targets is problematic. Watkins hasn’t caught a pass since Week 16, but he’s reportedly optimistic about playing this week. If Watkins and Robinson are out, can I interest you in Byron Pringle? With a combined 5 catches for 36 in the playoffs, Pringle hasn’t been spectacular. However, he should see some additional targets this week and get the start on the outside for Patrick Mahomes. Keep an eye on him at such a low price.

Leonard Fournette ($7,800 FLEX) has seen 20.6 touches per game in the team’s three playoff games and has scored three touchdowns in those games. Kansas City’s run defense has been vulnerable this year, and Tampa will be looking to get Fournette involved early. Ronald Jones ($2,200 FLEX) has seen 10+ touches in each of the last two games, but Fournette appears to be the preferred pass-catcher and red-zone rusher. Both players can be high-upside options. Rounding out Tampa’s skill players’ options is tight end Cameron Brate ($4,800 FLEX). Brate has seen 5+ targets in each of the team’s three playoff games, and he scored a touchdown last week. He’s a strong option to consider in his price range.

What About DSTs and Ks?

I don’t normally rule out DSTs for DraftKings showdown lineups, but this is an exception. This game has the highest over-under total in Super Bowl history, and I’d lean towards the over. The Buccaneers and Chiefs were both bottom seven to allow fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I see this as a high-octane shootout. However, of either of the defenses, I’d look to Tampa Bay ($2,800 FLEX). You wouldn’t normally want to run them in the same lineup as Mahomes and his high-octane offensive weapons, but I don’t necessarily hate it as a high-scoring. Still, a sloppy effort from Kansas City wouldn’t be overly shocking. Both of these teams scored five or fewer fantasy points in the two teams’ earlier meeting.

Harrison Butker ($4,000 FLEX) and Ryan Succop ($3,800 FLEX) are both viable options given the massive over-under total in this matchup. Succop was the #7 fantasy scorer at kicker, and he made 28 of 31 field goals during the regular season. Butker was the #11 scorer, and he made 25 of 27 field goals. Both of these guys can be relied upon to come through with made attempts. However, the Chiefs ended the regular season as the worst red-zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on 74.07% of red-zone trips so that the Bucs may end their drives with touchdowns more often than not. Butker has more of the opportunity as the Chiefs could struggle in the red-zone against a stacked front seven without starting offensive tackles.

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Sample Lineups

CAPTAIN: Patrick Mahomes $18,000
FLEX: Tom Brady $10,000
FLEX: Tyreek Hill $10,400
FLEX: Mecole Hardman $5,600
FLEX: Harrison Butker $4,000
FLEX: Byron Pringle $1,800

CAPTAIN: Tom Brady $15,000
FLEX: Chris Godwin $8,800
FLEX: Travis Kelce $11,000
FLEX: Leonard Fournette $7,800
FLEX: Cameron Brate $4,800
FLEX: Ronald Jones $2,200

CAPTAIN: Tyreek Hill $15,600
FLEX: Patrick Mahomes $12,000
FLEX: Travis Kelce $11,000
FLEX: Cameron Brate $4,800
FLEX: Harrison Butker $4,000
FLEX: Byron Pringle $1,800

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For as long as I've been watching sports, I've been gambling on them too. I used to place $1 bets on several NBA games throughout the week with a buddy in high school with the winner rarely getting more than a few dollars for their trouble. It didn't matter - the rush of landing a winning bet and the ensuing bragging rights were enough. Now I've graduated to full-blown degenerate status, placing copious futures bets for every sport and designing elaborate parlays for maximum payoff. I've experienced my fair share of blown chances but there's no better feeling than using my sports research and knowledge to pull off a win.

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