Eagles Vs. Texans (11/3/22) Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay + SGP Picks

By Jacob Wayne | Nov 03, 2022, 6:54am

While the World Series game between the Phillies and Astros will be the headliner on Thursday night, the Thursday Night Football game between the Eagles and Texans figures to provide plenty of intrigue. That’s particularly true if you’re looking to build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) as there are some great options on the board that I’ll dive into here. Let’s get to work.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

The first play I’m putting in our SGP is the alternate spread of the Eagles -9.5. The line for the full game is -14, and while I believe the Eagles should be able to cover that number, there are some concerns about a backdoor cover. By pushing the line down to -9.5, we capture the key number of 10 and offset some of that backdoor risk. The Eagles are playing on the road, but they have the advantage in essentially every important metric here.

If you need more proof of the Eagles’ massive edge, here are some advanced numbers. The Eagles’ offense ranks 3rd in DVOA, 3rd in EPA, 5th in success rate, and 9th in yards per play. The Texans’ defense ranks 30th in DVOA, 25th in EPA, 23rd in success rate, and 21st in yards per play allowed. Houston’s offense is also incredibly limited, ranking 31st in DVOA and EPA, which leads us into our first player prop.

The first player prop I’m putting in the SGP is Davis Mills under 218.5 passing yards. We locked this in at 223.5 earlier in the week and it’s been moving down, but this number is still ahead of Mills’s season average of 214.5 passing yards. The Eagles have allowed just 183.4 passing yards per game thanks to their elite trio of cornerbacks and the Texans don’t have the pass-catchers to beat them, particularly with Brandin Cooks likely not playing.

Next, I’m taking Dameon Pierce’s alternate rushing prop at 60+ yards. Pierce had gone over 60 yards in six straight games prior to last week, and if there’s one weakness the Eagles have it’s against the run. Philadelphia has the second-ranked defense by DVOA, but it’s just 22nd against the run. They also rank 29th in rushing success rate allowed. We know Lovie Smith won’t shy away from giving Pierce a massive workload regardless of the game script, so I like this value.

On the Eagles side, I like this game for DeVonta Smith. We took his receptions prop at 4.5 in our player props article, but FanDuel doesn’t allow you to include receptions props in SGPs. Instead, we’ll take his receiving yards at 50.5. Smith has gone under that number in three of his last four games, but I don’t expect him to stay quiet forever, and this matchup favors his underneath receiving capability as the Texans play a lot of Cover 3 zone defense.

Put it all together, and we have an exciting SGP to work with. Remember, SGPs have a lower probability of hitting, so don’t put more than you can comfortably afford to lose. I typically recommend a quarter or half unit:

Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 (-174)
Davis Mills Under 218.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Dameon Pierce 60+ Rushing Yards (-132)
DeVonta Smith Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Full SGP Odds: +899 ($10 wins $89.97)

Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.