Euro 2020 Knockout Stage Odds Update & Betting Insight

The group stages are complete in the 2020 Euros, which are somewhat confusingly being held in 2021 due to the pandemic. One thing to keep in mind is that only 8 squads were knocked out from the 24 that started in the group stage in this format. Due to this, you will not see a massive swing in the future odds offered by most sportsbooks.

There were no real shockers as all of the top favorites made it onto the knockout stage. However, what has happened, largely due to the weird formatting with a 24-team group stage, is that the top-side of the knockout bracket is absolutely stacked. All three favorites, Belgium, France, and Italy, are lined up on the top half of the bracket. Even Portugal is among those teams as they take on Belgium in round 1. This has created some odd values in the future odds, with the bottom side of the bracket being completely up for grabs between the tier-2 favorites.

Updated Odds

Italy Team logoThere are some massive risers when it comes to favored winners for the 2020 Euros. The biggest being Italy. Despite being on the harder side of the bracket, the Azzurri have moved from +1,200 to +550, second only to France. This just goes to show how well Italy has been playing that oddsmakers feel forced to make them second-favorites, despite the tough road that would see them needing to go through Portugal/Belgium and then likely France, just to reach the final.

A move that somewhat offsets the Italian rise is the fall of Belgium’s odds from +550 to +900. As mentioned, the team needs to get through Portugal and then likely Italy and France just to reach the finals, a path that bettors will 100% want to steer clear of. In order to entice some wagers, the odds have gotten much longer for Belgium.

One team that did not move was the Netherlands, who stay put at +900 to win. This comes as a bit of a surprise as the path to the finals is extraordinarily easy for Holland. This could be a spot that we see a lot of bettors start moving to, purely based on the value of the bet.

Insight

betmgm-115x115BetMGM has been kind enough to share some insight and data regarding the wagers heading into the knockout stages. When it comes to liabilities, not much has changed for the sportsbook. The three biggest liabilities are France, Italy, and then Belgium. This is obviously great news for BetMGM as only one of these three can even make the final. It is likely that BetMGM will not be hit too hard when it comes to payouts on the winning wager.

With those three being the biggest liabilities, it also comes as no surprise that France, Italy, and Belgium are leading the total handles and total wagers for BetMGM when it comes to the Euro 2020 Champion future bet. France is still commanding an insane 33.2% of the total handle. This means that 33.2% of all money wagered on the 2020 Euro Champion, on BetMGM, is placed on the French.

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Matthew is a UC Berkeley economic and philosophy graduate. He has played DFS, Football pools, and survival leagues for most of his adult life. Matthew brings to the table great strategies for both your GPP and Cash plays as well as a winning track record with his picks of the week.

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