Falcons Vs. Panthers (11/10/22) Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay + SGP Picks

By Jacob Wayne | Nov 10, 2022, 9:19am

We’re onto Week 10 of the NFL season, and the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and Panthers carries plenty of intrigue. When these teams faced off earlier in the year, we saw a shootout with 71 total points scored in an overtime thriller.

However, this game is expected to experience heavy wind and rain, so the circumstances will vary drastically. I’m not exactly sure how bad the conditions will be, but you can get more information as we get closer to game time.

In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay for this Thursday Night Football game with an emphasis on correlation between probable outcomes. Due to the weather and low total, I’ll be looking to include some unders in our SGP. Let’s get to work.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

The first piece I’m including in this Same Game Parlay is the under 42.5 points. While these teams’ prior matchup totaled 71 points, 37 of those points were scored in the fourth quarter and overtime. It certainly wasn’t pacing to be that kind of a shootout until very late in the game, and I doubt we see that kind of scoring burst again here.

In addition to the obvious weather conditions that favor the under, we’re also looking at two divisional rivals who will be playing their second matchup in ten days. That will give the defenses an edge as they will know more of what to expect from the opposing offense. Add in the trends that favor primetime unders, specifically on Thursdays, and the under is a strong play.

Along with the game total under, I’ll be playing a few player prop unders. First, I’m adding Marcus Mariota under 157.5 passing yards. I locked this in at 162.5 earlier in the day, but I’m fine with this number as it’s still over the 153.5 passing yard average that Mariota has had over his last six games. He’s only gone over this number in one of his last six games.

I’ll also be taking P.J. Walker under 171.5 passing yards for this SGP. He went for 317 passing yards against the Falcons in that prior matchup, but a large portion of it came in the fourth quarter and overtime, and I don’t trust him to deal with the weather well here. In addition, it wouldn’t be shocking if we see Baker Mayfield in this game after Walker was benched at halftime last week.

Base SGP on FanDuel:

Under 42.5 Total Points
Marcus Mariota Under 157.5 Passing Yards
P.J. Walker Under 165.5 Passing Yards

If you want a boosted SGP on top of that base play, I like targeting the under on receiving yardage props for these teams. There’s obvious correlation between the passing yardage and receiving yardage being lower than expected. Below, you can find a boosted SGP.

For the Falcons, I’ll add the under on Drake London’s receiving yards at 36.5, and I particularly like that as he’ll likely see a fair amount of Jaycee Horn this week, Carolina’s best defensive back. In addition, I’ll take D.J. Moore under 59.5 receiving yards as he’s only gone over that number in two games this season.

Boosted SGP on FanDuel:

Under 42.5 Total Points
Marcus Mariota Under 157.5 Passing Yards
P.J. Walker Under 165.5 Passing Yards
Drake London Under 36.5 Receiving Yards
D.J. Moore Under 59.5 Receiving Yards

Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.