Slate News, Injuries, Vegas Totals, & Weather
Looking at a big 13-game slate for FanDuel & DraftKings. They did include the second game of the Boston/Detroit doubleheader, but lineups may or may not be out by the time they get around to it. Weather looks pretty good across the board, with no major bumps to hitters or pitchers because of wind. Bigger name injuries we need to keep an eye on are, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon, and Robinson Cano.
Vegas will point us in the direction of some teams to target, and pitchers to look at on most slates. Tonight things are very even across all games. There are no heavy favorites, or anyone even over -150. We do have implied totals over five with Houston, Washington, and the Chicago White Sox.
Elite Aces – (None)
Lineups Analysis: There isn’t a ton to like about pitching tonight, but we have a lot of mid-range arms worth taking a shot on in some above average spots. Because there is no elite ace, I believe we will see some pretty spread out ownerships as well. Let’s start with cash games, both Luke Weaver and Trevor Williams are in a pitchers ballpark against two league average offenses. Neither guy has a ton of strikeout upside, although Weaver has better swing and miss stuff with his changeup and curveball. However, Pittsburgh’s projected lineup is striking out at just 15% this season.
Weaver has been weaker against left-handed hitters in his career, which is a bit scary in this spot. He needs to avoid a few of them, but a quality start is certainly in his range of outcomes. Williams limits damage and hard-contact, and is another quality start threat who could be in line for a win as well.
Frankie Montas is a name I want to highlight for tonight, as the A’s sit as -146 home favorites. Texas is also implied 3.7 runs. Montas has an xFIP under four to start the season, and a 59% groundball rate. He has a whiff rate of 44% on his slider, throwing it over 20% of the time to both sides of the plate. His splitter has been effective with a 33% whiff rate and 83% groundball rate. This is all in addition to his above average fastball at 96mph. Texas’ lineup drops off on the road, but also have a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
The rest of the arms are going to be saved for tournaments. Patrick Corbin is in Coors, where he gets a Rockies lineup in bad form right now. Because Corbin has a 32% strikeout rate and faced several high strikeout rate bats, he is worth a dart throw in GPPs at a depreciated price tag. Zach Eflin will be borderline cash depending on what lineup is rolled out for the Mets, with some injuries Eflin could get a favorable draw. He is a slider happy right-hander, who can generate strikeouts at a reasonable rate now.
Trent Thornton has had a couple of rough starts, but the strikeout stuff is still there. He has an excellent curveball that generates a 42% whiff rate. It is his other pitches where we see some struggles at times. San Francisco’s lineup doesn’t have much power, and they have six bats with over a 20% strikeout rate currently in their lineup.
Lineups Analysis: Chicago is certainly a team you can go back to tonight, after scaring us through five innings they mashed David Hess and a bad bullpen for over ten runs. They get Andrew Cashner tonight, who has over a 5.00 xFIP and is allowing a .405 wOBA to right-handers. Hard-contact is over 40% to both sides. Good spot for the White Sox bats again.
Not a big Zach Davies guy, and a few Cardinals bats standout. Davies relies heavily on sinkers. Throwing it over 60% of the time to both sides of the plate. Matt Carpenter has a .439 wOBA and .307 ISO against sinkers. Paul Goldschmidt has a .459 wOBA and .267 ISO against sinkers.
Toronto left-handed bats are a bit interesting, as Jeff Samardzija allows a .348 wOBA and 43% hard-contact and line drive rate. Justin Smoak is a GPP bat, while Freddy Galvis has gotten off to a hot start with a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Lineups Analysis: Houston’s infield is one to target, but George Springer is a pay up option tonight. Michael Pineda has allowed over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate and has always been a name that can blow up in a hurry due to the hard-contact and flyball rates.
Nelson Cruz versus a lefty… Dating back to last season, Cruz has a .400 wOBA and .286 ISO off southpaws. Great spot for him against Wade Miley. Byron Buxton is also flashing some upside at times, and is worth a tournament shot in GPPs.
Zach Eflin has allowed a .368 wOBA and .205 ISO to lefties this season, and left-handers have always given him issues. That is why the Mets lineup is important for him tonight. Michael Conforto has a .444 wOBA and .327 ISO off right-handers so far this season and is one of their batter bats.
Both Adam Eaton and Juan Soto are two Coors bats in a good spot. Jeff Hoffman has bene reverse splits in his career, but has still allowed a .333 wOBA and 1.23 HR/9 to lefties in his career. He also has a career 7.43 ERA at home.
(Ranked In Order Of Preference)
Lineups Analysis: Washington is a fairly obvious stack tonight because they are in Coors and going up against Jeff Hoffman. As mentioned, his Coors numbers are horrendous, and he struggles against both sides of the plate. With Houston, they are expensive, but Michael Pineda is someone who can give up runs in a hurry. Pineda is super prone to the long ball, and this is a team that has a .356 wOBA and .211 ISO combined in their projected lineup. Like last night, Chicago is a stack to consider. Great ballpark for both sides of the plate, followed by a bad bullpen and Andrew Cashner. Despite Minnesota going off last night, they come in a big disrespected by Vegas and this offense has been thriving. Outside of Nelson Cruz, they should still be fairly low owned.