FanDuel MLB Daily Fantasy Picks 6/5/19
Contents
Slate News, Injuries, Vegas Totals, & Weather
After a stretch of good weather slates, we deal with a lot of rain tonight. Pittsburgh is in the most danger, facing Atlanta at home. Pitchers are an easy fade here. Games in Cleveland, New York, Detroit, Texas, Kansas City, and St. Louis all have rain around game time and it is too early to dictate how in jeopardy these games are for being played. The Yankees, Rays, Brewers, and Red Sox are the larger favorites. The Red Sox, Cardinals, Rangers, Brewers, Rays, and Yankees all have over a five implied total.
Pitchers
Charlie Morton ($10,400) – Dating back to last season, Charlie Morton is sitting with a 29.2% strikeout rate and 3.41 xFIP. Morton hasn’t changed much over his change of teams, going from Houston to Tampa Bay. He has dominated right-handed hitters, holding them to a .269 wOBA and .111 ISO since 2018. He will take on a heavy right-handed Detroit lineup, who have a .297 wOBA, .146 ISO, and 25.5% strikeout rate. There is rain at the beginning of the game, but they either wait it out or it will be gone by first pitch. We are in the clear with Morton and weather, now we just hope he doesn’t stink it up like Stephen Strasburg from last night.
Cash Hitters
Derek Fisher ($2,900) – We continue to get cheap leadoff guys for Houston, and Derek Fisher has been a stud value. Price is on the rise, but he is still way too cheap. He gets a strong matchup tonight against Mike Leake, who has allowed a .326 wOBA to lefties, but that number is way up in 2019. The groundball rate is down, and hard-contact is up. Over the 2018-2019 sample, Fisher has a high strikeout rate. The positive is that Leake isn’t a strikeout arm, and hitters have an 83% contact rate since last season. His strikeout rate against lefties is at 14.2%.
Rafael Devers ($3,900) – Rafael Devers has a .355 wOBA and .208 ISO off right-handers since last season, and 2019 has been a big jump for the young bat. Devers has a .398 wOBA and .200 ISO off right-handers in 2019. his strikeout rate is 16% and his hard-contact rate is 37%. His plate vision has improved greatly, upping his walk rate and dropping his strikeout rate. He also was moved to cleanup after being named Player of the Month in the AL. Devers is blossoming into a strong 3B option in the fantasy world, after being more of a boom or bust guy last year. Jake Junis has allowed a .350 wOBA, .190 ISO, and 42% hard-contact rate to lefties since 2018.
Mike Moustakas ($4,000) – There are a few Brewers bats that I can build around, and the obvious is Christian Yelich. Mike Moustakas has a .356 wOBA and .250 ISO off right-handers dating back to last season. Sandy Alcantara has a .320 wOBA against lefties and just a 12% strikeout rate. Moose is another one who matches up well. He has a .268 ISO off sinkers, .331 ISO off changeups, and .236 ISO against curveballs. He is a bit expensive, but I like working him into lineups tonight. Miller Park is a plus ballpark for left-handed power.
Tournament Hitters
Ryan Braun ($3,100) – Milwaukee has over a five implied total against Sandy Alcantara, who has good stuff, but hasn’t put it together just yet. He has a 5.37 xFIP dating back to last season, and has a sub 20% strikeout rate. He has some high velocity stuff, averaging 95mph on his fastball. Ryan Braun has a .441 wOBA and .287 ISO against this fastball range. He also has a .337 ISO off changeups, which Alcantara goes to for his secondary pitch at times to right-handers. Braun also has a .293 ISO against curveballs, which is another off-speed pitch. Love Braun as cheaper exposure to Milwaukee tonight, as most of their bats are pretty expensive.
Tyler Austin ($2,500) – Tyler Austin is a boom or bust option against left-handed pitching. He is a cheap source of power for tournaments, and will likely be overlooked. He has a .318 ISO and .392 wOBA off southpaws since 2018, but a 33% strikeout rate. The good thing is, Jason Vargas isn’t a big swing and miss guy. He has allowed a .357 wOBA and .218 ISO to right-handers since last season. His flyball and hard-contact rates are at 37% in that span as well. Austin should be single digits for ownership.
Kyle Seager ($2,700) – Kyle Seager is back from injury, and has been a solid value. Brad Peacock has allowed a .351 wOBA and .265 ISO to lefties since last season. His K% drops 10% down from right-handers. Lefties also have a 45% flyball rate and 40% hard-contact. Seager has a .185 ISO against right-handers since last season, although he has missed most of 2019 so far. Below $3,000 we have some cheap upside, and Seager has been an unlucky bat for the last few seasons, but the power continues to be underrated.
