FanDuel MLB Daily Fantasy Picks 7/27/19
Contents
MLB DFS is a high variance game, but one of the more fun fantasy sports to play. Cash games you want to find consistent high floor pitchers, and the same goes for hitters. Tournaments you want to find lower owned bats and pitchers that carry huge upside. This article will point you in the direction of both.
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole ($12,000) – The hefty price tag of Gerrit Cole is going to limit the ability to roster high priced bats, but I have some mid range and value plays to pair with him. Cole will run into a hot Cardinals team, but Cole has also been pitching well himself. He will see a predominately right-handed lineup, with some average to below average lefties sprinkled in. He also gets to face the pitcher moving to a NL ballpark. Cole has the highest strikeout rate on the slate, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Cole is the top play on the board, and even with higher ownership due to surrounding pitching options, he is the pay up arm to choose. St Louis projects to have four bats with over a 20% strikeout rate plus the pitcher.
Cash Hitters
Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) – Kyle Schwarber comes in at a solid price tag and is in a good park for lefty power. He has a .262 ISO off right-handed pitching this season. The strikeout rate is still a bit high, but I will put up with that this evening. Chase Anderson has been reverse splits this season but he is still giving up a ton of hard contact and flyballs to lefties. Schwarber also has strong power numbers against cutters and changeups which Anderson throws quite a bit. It is a good spot to get a bargain power bar and we will need it.
David Dahl ($3,000) – While it isn’t Coors, the Rockies step into one of the better ballparks in baseball tonight for hitters. David Dahl at an even $3,000 is a steal in this spot. He has a .367 wOBA and .214 ISO off right-handed pitching this season and gets Anthony DeSclafani tonight. He has always struggled with left-handed hitters, and 2019 is no different. DeSclafani has allowed a .402 wOBA, .277 ISO, 48% hard-contact rate, AND 50% flyball rate. Dahl is a prime target for me, and first one going into my lineups.
Robinson Cano ($2,700) – Robinson Cano is on the cheaper side, even after his three home run night. Trevor Williams has struggled against left-handers this season, allowing a .391 wOBA and .200 ISO. Williams throws a 91mph fastball to lefties 56% of the time, and a changeup 24% of the time. Cano has a .630 wOBA and .528 ISO off the fastball range, and a .244 ISO off changeups. Cano is a better play more because the price is baked into it. His overall numbers were helped by that big game.
Tournament Hitters
Matt Chapman ($3,300) – I was somewhat surprised to see Matt Chapman at these prices and he is also a cash game play as well given the price tag. The A’s overall are a nice late night stack, and a contrarian way to attack the slate. Chapman has a .375 wOBA and .237 ISO off right-handed pitching over the course of the season. Adrian Sampson has allowed a .401 wOBA and .266 ISO to right-handers on the year. The hard-contact is nearly 50% and flyball rates are over 40%. I love Chapman against sinker ball pitchers, as he has a .456 wOBA and .309 ISO off sinkers.
Jesus Aguilar (2,500) – Jesus Aguilar hasn’t been much of a fantasy asset this season but against a lefty at home with these prices we have to consider. Aguilar has heated up a bit in the month of July but overall he’s been a dud after a power filled season last year. He will take on Jon Lester tonight who has allowed a .342 wOBA and .199 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. They have also tagged him for a 40% hard-contact rate. With Cole being as expensive as he did, a HR shot is worth the risk at these price tags and he won’t kill you with a zero.
