MLB DFS is a high variance game, but one of the more fun fantasy sports to play. Cash games you want to find consistent high floor pitchers, and the same goes for hitters. Tournaments you want to find lower owned bats and pitchers that carry huge upside. This article will point you in the direction of both.
Hyun-Jin-Ryu ($10,100) – Four games tonight, and six teams have over a five total, one is over four, and one us under four. The Padres have the lowest total on the board, as they face Hyun-Jin Ryu. The southpaws has been excellent in 2019, and Vegas is backing the Dodgers with a -229 moneyline. Ryu has a 24% strikeout rate this season and is holding right-handed bats to a .271 wOBA. He will face a pretty right-handed heavy lineup for San Diego, but he is a strong play in all formats. The walk rate of 1.8% is insane, and we also have a lot of mid-range and value plays to build around him.
Nick Markakis ($3,100) – I will be attacking Zach Eflin’s lefty struggles with the Braves bats tonight. He has a long track record of struggling against left-handed hitters, and 2019 is no different. He is allowing a .349 wOBA and .252 ISO to lefties, and both the hard-contact and flyball rate are over 40%. Nick Markakis is one of the best contact bats in the league, and is also underrated in fantasy. He has a .371 wOBA and .175 ISO off right-handed pitching this season and is projected to hit fifth.
Alex Verdugo ($3,500) – The Dodgers lefties are intriguing here, even against Lamet. He has been injured and is making his first start since 2017. He has good stuff but has an xFIP over 5.00 against lefties, and they sport a .263/.365/.502 slashing line in limited starts. He has also allowed a 1.61 HR/9 and there are a lot of flyballs and hard-contact. Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson are two options with over a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and they also won’t break the bank.
Ozzie Albies ($3,300) – Ozzie Albies is another lefty to consider, sitting with a .322 wOBA and .164 ISO off right-handers this season. It isn’t the greatest numbers, but Albies is a nice bargain buy on this slate. As mentioned above, Eflin has allowed a .349 wOBA and .252 ISO to left-handers. Albies also has a .365 wOBA and .259 ISO off Eflin’s fastball range this season. The Braves have a 5.9 implied total and we are going to want some exposure.
Justin Smoak ($2,700) – The Jays haven’t been a reliable offense this season, but they have excellent price tags against a below average bullpen arm for Boston. Justin Smoak is underpriced with a .395 wOBA and .283 ISO off right-handed pitching this season. Hector Velazquez is allowing a .250 ISO to lefties with a 42% hard-contact rate. Smoak offers big pop for a sub $3,000 price tag. Smoak is one of the first bats to put into my lineup tonight offering value and power.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3,200) – Vladimir Guerrero Jr is also at a nice price and stays in line with a balanced roster. He has a .340 wOBA and .186 ISO off right-handers since entering the majors, and his hard-contact sits over 40%. Velazquez has allowed a .344 wOBA and 39% hard-contact rate to right-handers. Even if Velazquez gets trounced early, Boston has some horrendous bullpen arms to follow. Great spot for the Jays, and love them as a value stack even with the overall seasonal numbers.
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