MLB DFS is a high variance game, but one of the more fun fantasy sports to play. Cash games you want to find consistent high floor pitchers, and the same goes for hitters. Tournaments you want to find lower owned bats and pitchers that carry huge upside. This article will point you in the direction of both.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,100) – The Tigers are not that bad against left-handed pitching, and have a 4.4 implied total tonight. That is a pedestrian number to target pitcher with, but Rodriguez is interesting tonight because of the price tag. $8,100 gives you some flexibility, and I am not in love with a ton of arms on the slate. There is some risk as Rodriguez tends to always go one inning too long, and I am going to project these implied runs to come against the bullpen. Rodriguez has a 3.97 xFIP and 24.3% strikeout rate this season. He is missing bats and there are a few high strikeout bats within the lineup. Boston should be able to backup Rodriguez with some run support for a win as well. 40-45 FD points would be ideal in this spot.
Nelson Cruz ($4,200) – Sampson has allowed a .376 wOBA and .235 ISO to right-handed hitters this season. He has a 16% strikeout rate against them, and over a 40% flyball rate. Righties also have tagged him for a 48% hard-contact rate. Nelson Cruz is over $4,000, but I am okay paying this price tag. He has a .384 wOBA and .263 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Minnesota is another offense I want to get plenty of exposure to.
Matt Chapman ($3,800) – I love the Oakland bats to tee off against Kikuchi who has really struggled of late, and especially after teams have seen him. Oakland has quite a few times. In his last six starts he has allowed 6 ER in three of them. Allowing over a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate is not ideal, and right-handers have a .368 wOBA against him. Chapman is mashing this season with a .372 wOBA and .354 ISO against left-handed pitching. You can also find some cheap value bats like Mark Canha and Chad Pinder.
Xander Bogaerts ($4,200) – Gregory Soto has really struggled, and is allowing a .437 wOBA and .319 ISO to right-handed hitters. The hard-contact is over 45% and he only has a 38% groundball rate against righties. Xander Bogaerts has been one of the best SS in baseball this season, and also sports over a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2019. His ISO sits at .343. He often seems to be the forgotten bat from this Boston side, and while the price tag is high, Bogaerts has been worth every penny this season.
Matt Adams ($2,900) – You will have to pay a premium price tag for most Nationals bats tonight if you want to get exposure to the over six implied total. Matt Adams has some cheap upside to bring for a cheap price. He has over a .250 ISO against right-handed pitching, but that 34% strikeout rate is what keeps him in the tournament play section. Brad Keller isn’t a guy who misses bats, and there is a reason why Washington has over a six implied total.
Dominic Smith (2,600) – The Mets are a sneaky stack with Vince Velasquez struggling right now. Smith has a .416 wOBA and .269 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and will go overlooked. Velasquez is allowing over a .200 ISO to left-handed hitters, with a .346 wOBA. His strikeout rate dips a bit to lefties, and he is allowing an identical 35.4% flyball and hard-contact rate. If you need some deep value, Smith is a single digit ownership guy with HR upside.