There are a few scoring differences to be aware of if you are playing on FanDuel from a site like DraftKings. This is universal, but interceptions are just -1 in scoring and not -2 which seems to be the standard in season long leagues. FanDuel is a .5 per reception scoring league, so that does play a factor into building lineups. Tarik Cohen won’t have as much weight compared to PPR sites. There are also no yardage bonuses for crossing over a specific threshold. Now that you are caught up, it is time to look at some contrarian plays for the Week 4 Main Slate.
Matt Ryan – $7,900
GPP Projection: 20.3
There seems to be a general perception that Matt Ryan has just flat out sucked this season. The six interceptions and 1-2 record certainly plays a part in that belief. However, he has averaged 309 yards passing per game this season and has eight touchdowns over the three weeks. He has been over 20 FD points in each of the three weeks, and him and Julio Jones are making an actual touchdown connection this year. Tennessee has allowed 21 and 20 fantasy points to Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew in back-to-back weeks. Below $8,000 he can bring some solid return at home.
Marlon Mack – $7,300
GPP Projection: 18.9
Marlon Mack leads the league in rushing attempts this season, and is currently RB7 on .5 PPR. The Raiders have allowed 4.4 yards per attempt to opposing backs dating back to last season. The Raiders were a team that allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing backs last season, and are allowing the 12th most so far this season. The Colts are touchdown home favorites, and have a 26 implied total. Mack at $7,300 is a great option to consider this week, even though he doesn’t have receiving upside.
Chris Carson – $7,000
GPP Projection: 17.5
The fumbles are a concern for Chris Carson, but the touches continue to be there. After back to back down weeks, I like going back to the well here. He has 45 rushing attempts over the three weeks, and 11 targets over the three weeks. Arizona hasn’t allowed a lot of run production for fantasy, but are allowing 4.9 yards per attempt and rank 19th. The fantasy points are going to come as teams are also moving the ball against this defense. We saw that last week with Carolina. Take advantage of the recency bias here.
DJ Moore – $6,400
GPP Projection: 14.7
DJ Moore had a big touchdown last week, but also had just two targets with Kyle Allen under center. Him being here improves the upside given Cam Newton just couldn’t get things going. Houston is allowing the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. They have allowed three 100+ yard games so far, and granted they are top wideouts, Houston’s secondary has still been a major question mark. Moore also brings some salary relief.
DeAndre Hopkins – $8,700
GPP Projection: 19.8
I love Julio Jones, but DeAndre Hopkins is in a great rebound week given he has been quiet by his standards over the last two weeks. Hopkins has 30% of the target share, and 346 air yards through three weeks. Houston has a strong implied total to target this week, and at home this is an offense that should get going. There is stackable potential on both sides here and a lot of correlation between the passing games.
TJ Hockenson – $5,200
GPP Projection: 13.9
After the big week one, TJ Hockenson has scored 1.8 FD points. Hockenson has still played over 40 snaps each week, and is seeing 72% of the team snaps. He has 20% of the team targets, and is still a threat to target. This is going to be a game where the Lions will have to push the ball, and go through the air. Tight ends have the most receptions against the Chiefs so far this season, but have yet to find the end zone. After two down weeks, this is a great spot to grab the cheap rookie.
Los Angeles Rams – $4,300
GPP Projection: 10.5
Tampa Bay has a lot of weapons on the offensive side, although without Chris Godwin, who is battling a hip injury, there isn’t a whole lot to like. The Bucs are already allowing a lot of defensive production. They have allowed ten sacks through two weeks, and Jameis Winston hasn’t exactly been an improved decision maker. I love the Rams upside this week, and even their floor. They are $4,300 and have scored 9,8, and 9 fantasy points against three reasonable offenses.