Thunder-Pacers First Basket Odds, Picks, Predictions: NBA Finals Game 1; Bet On Nesmith?
Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Pacers and Thunder tips off on Thursday, June 5, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Keep reading to determine which NBA first basket odds are worth betting on at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
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NBA Finals First Basket Data
Game first shot percentage indicates how frequently a player took the first shot of the game during his starts. Team first shot percentage measures how frequently a player took his team’s first shot of the game during his starts.
The table below only includes data from the regular season.
| Player (Starts) | Game First-Shot Percentage | Team First-Shot Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (76) | 3.9% | 19.7% |
| Luguentz Dort (71) | 14% | 22.5% |
| Jalen Williams (69) | 8.6% | 20.2% |
| Chet Holmgren (32) | 25% | 31.2% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein (53) | 5.6% | 11.3% |
| Tyrese Haliburton (73) | 8.2% | 13.6% |
| Andrew Nembhard (65) | 9.2% | 23% |
| Aaron Nesmith (37) | 5.4% | 13.5% |
| Pascal Siakam (78) | 6.4% | 24.3% |
| Myles Turner (72) | 9.7% | 27.7% |
First Basket Odds & Best Bets: Thunder-Pacers Game 1
Check out four bets below for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, along with the main betting markets.
Aaron Nesmith: Pacers’ First Basket (3-Pointer, +1100 At DraftKings) & Game’s First Basket (3-Pointer, +2900 At FanDuel)
Oklahoma City’s defense has two main priorities: limit paint attempts as much as possible and force the opponent’s best player to give up the basketball. The Thunder want the other team to take as many contested jumpers from role players as possible.
Fortunately for the Pacers, they can run a dynamic offense under these circumstances. Tyrese Haliburton is one of the best playmakers in the association, generating a ton of quality spot-up looks for teammates, and he’s surrounded by a bevy of marksmen.
Aaron Nesmith is arguably the biggest threat to capitalize on Oklahoma City’s defensive priorities. During this NBA postseason, he leads the Pacers in catch-and-shoot and corner triples per game. Plus, Nesmith has made exactly half of his 3-point attempts in the playoffs.
Granted, his first basket usage isn’t ideal. Nesmith took Indiana’s first shot in only 13.5% of his starts in the regular season, and he has done so in two of Indiana’s 16 playoff games (12.5%). However, it’s worth a look based on the matchup and betting odds.
I suggest playing each of these lines at a quarter of a unit.
- Related: Pacers-Thunder Odds; Historic Upset En Route?
Jalen Williams: Game’s First Basket (+600 At FanDuel) & Thunder’s First Basket (+340 At FanDuel)
Indiana’s defense protects the arc at a high level, but slashers and rim threats can cause issues. The Pacers aren’t structured to stop Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in the NBA Finals.
Both players thrive at creating driving lanes and pressuring the basket. SGA will draw more defensive attention than Williams, and the regular-season MVP also has worse odds and first-basket usage stats.
It’s worth noting that Williams has taken Oklahoma City’s first shot in five of 17 games this playoffs. That’s tied with Chet Holmgren for the most instances on the team. SGA, on the other hand, has only done it once.
I recommend playing each of these lines at half of a unit. Check out more player props best bets for Game 1 here.
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