After Netting Boogie Fland, Florida Improves Betting Odds Of Repeating College Basketball Title Run
Florida’s betting odds of repeating as men’s college basketball national champions in 2025–26 saw a sizable boost on Tuesday. In one of the biggest transfer portal moves of the offseason, the Gators earned a commitment from Boogie Fland, the former Arkansas Razorbacks combo guard. Fland appeared likely to go one-and-done entering his freshman campaign, but he opted to withdraw from the NBA draft process last week. Let’s examine how Boogie Fland impacted the odds for the reigning champs.
College Basketball Odds: Boogie Fland Raises Florida’s Stock
| Sportsbook | Florida Odds Before Fland's Commitment | Fland's Impact On Florida Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2000 | +1600 |
| FanDuel | +2500 | +1500 |
| Caesars | +2500 | +2000 |
| Fanatics | +3000 | +2000 |
Best 2025-26 March Madness Odds
Where Does Florida Land Among March Madness Odds?
As expected, the answer varies among the best sports betting sites. Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, Florida showcases +1500 odds of winning consecutive national championships, a feat recently accomplished by Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies and the 2006-07 Gators. FanDuel’s pricing gives Florida the fourth-best implied probability (6.3%) of cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. Todd Golden’s team is behind only Purdue, Duke, and Houston.
For reference, bet365 Sportsbook is the lone operator to keep its odds static after Fland’s NIL deal was announced.
The acquisition of Fland continues a splashy offseason for the Gators, which are vying to sustain a championship-level roster after losing their entire backcourt, headlined by Walter Clayton Jr. Florida began its push by reeling in Princeton Tigers transfer Xaivian Lee, who was expected to team up with veteran Denzel Aberdeen. But Aberdeen had other ideas, pivoting to Kentucky.
This surprise put Florida in a position to recruit the 2024 McDonald’s All-American, who was projected to be a second-round selection in this year’s NBA draft.
Thomas Haugh, a versatile 6-foot-9 forward who is primed to enter the starting lineup, and starting center Rueben Chinyelu are both set to return. The biggest unknown remains starting four-man Alex Condon, who’s still in the mix for the draft. However, reports indicate that unless Condon receives a guarantee that a team will select him in the mid-first round, he will presumably play for the Gators next season.
If Condon reemerges in Gainesville, Fla., Golden’s starting five (Fland, Lee, Haugh, Condon, and Chinyelu) is arguably the most talented lineup across college basketball.
Evaluating Boogie Fland’s Value
Fland’s on-court impact as a freshman is difficult to assess. He suffered a thumb injury against Florida on Jan. 11 and returned as a reserve in the NCAA tournament. Arkansas averaged 112.3 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Nevertheless, the Hogs delivered a top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) for much of his absence, propelling their late-season run into the big dance.
How well will Lee and Fland, two high-usage guards, fit alongside one another? Perhaps the Gators will contend for a top-two seed again. But historically, brand-new backcourts are unable to reach the mountaintop in their first season with a new program.
The last 10 national champions, including last year’s Florida squad, had some backcourt experience within their programs before running the table in mid-March.
My Stance On Boogie Fland & Florida Odds
If Condon departs from the draft process, Florida’s odds will shorten a tad. That said, the Gators’ lack of guard-oriented cohesion could trigger some early-season struggles, allowing bettors to snag a better price later on. They’ll reportedly face fellow contenders in Arizona and UConn in non-conference play.
I’d advocate for wagering on a longshot, which possesses a high enough ceiling that isn’t quite baked into the betting market. Last month, I bet on UCLA at +5000. The Bruins’ best odds are currently .
UCLA tallied a smidge over 10 transition points per game last season, ranking 15th in the Big Ten. Still, the Bruins gave Tennessee a competitive half before bowing out in the second round of the big dance. New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent averaged 6.7 transition points on his own, which ranked atop college basketball. He’s also surrounded by the best core of catch-and-shoot marksmen in his career, with Skyy Clark, Tyler Bilodeau, and Jamar Brown (UMKC) all hitting at least 40% on 3-point attempts of this variety.
If Mick Cronin manages to stabilize his interior defense with the oft-maligned Xavier Booker (Michigan State), there’s no telling how far Dent, an All-American point guard, will guide UCLA. Remember that the Bruins’ veteran-laden core will maintain 43% of its minutes from 2024-25, a top-15 ranking among power-five programs.
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