Florida State Vs. Clemson: Prediction, Best Bets, Odds (9/23/23)

Florida State vs. Clemson kicks off this Saturday at 3:30pm EST in South Carolina as a home game for the Tigers. Florida State is currently a -2.5 favorite and -129 on the moneyline while the total is set at 55. Read on for more Florida State vs. Clemson best bets and predictions as points may be scored at a lightning quick pace in this matchup.

Florida State Vs. Clemson Prediction & Best Bet

Audible groans were heard around the world as Clemson fans thought their season was doomed from the start after an embarrassing loss to Duke to open the season. Turnovers and empty drives were plentiful as Cade Klubnik struggled at times to connect with his weapons on the outside. Even in a loss, Clemson still had a higher win expectancy percentage and crushed in Success Rate. A fluke loss at best.

Fortunately for the Clemson Tigers, they are still in full control of their destiny as a win over the Seminoles gives them the tiebreaker for the ACC Conference Championship and keeps their playoff hopes alive. That’s easier said than done as Florida State has looked like one of the best teams in the nation after a dominant win over LSU. While Boston College certainly made things interesting last week in a two-point loss, it’s hard to put much stock into that game as Florida State cut the script in half in a lookahead spot for this game.

Speaking of offense, both units are poised to put up points in a hurry in this mega showdown. Florida State’s offense is one of the more Explosive offenses in the nation, ranking third in the big play department and will have opportunities to make large gains at a time with the run all game long.

By establishing the run early and taking advantage of Clemson’s 111th ranked Def Rush Explosiveness metric, this forces Clemson’s second level into an uncomfortable position. They will have to creep up in an effort to clog the running lanes yet also keep coverage on the back end with the likes of FSU’s Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson sprinting down the sideline.

As for Clemson, the offense has looked disjointed at times, but they have actually done a good job at gaining the appropriate distance to gain with each play. Explosiveness is non-existent but they are more than capable of consistently moving the ball down on FSU as the Seminoles have struggled to limit early down success. Florida State is also horrendous at open field tackling per PFF, a big reason for their near dead last rankings in Def Explosiveness.

Florida State Vs. Clemson Prediction & Best Bet: Over 55

Florida State Vs. Clemson Betting Odds

Even with both teams trending in different directions, oddsmakers still have this as a tight contest by opening the Seminoles as a -2.5 favorite. That’s a drastic flip from the +2.5 on the look ahead line, showing that Florida State is the ACC favorite until otherwise. Should you want to back Clemson, I would be patient until a +3 appears as that is a key number.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a fast pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 55. That number quickly ticked up to 56.5 but has since been bet back down to 55 as of writing. Both offenses are in a position to continue to succeed as their defenses deal with open field stoppage issues, setting this up to be a high scoring thriller.

Florida State Vs. Clemson Key Matchups

Can Cade Klubnik continue to find success against the FSU defense?

Cade Klubnik Vs. Florida State Secondary

Expectations were high for Clemson going into the season and a big part of that was because of their new starting quarterback Cade Klubnik. An elite pocket presence, possessing next level talent. Those expectations took a major hit when he finished his season debut against Duke throwing for 209 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

Cade Klubnik hits the deep post to freshman WR Tyler Brown!! Clemson is up 14 early! #ClemsonTigers pic.twitter.com/ykDq8SWjlY

— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) September 17, 2023

Since then, Klubnik has played moderately better by adding on another seven touchdowns and one interception. Granted that was against far inferior competition, tempering expectations for how he will fare against an elite defense.

He will certainly be in a position to succeed as the Clemson offense is based around getting their playmakers in the open field. Florida State’s open field tackling issues will be on full display, allowing the Clemson skill players to rack up yards after the catch to Klubnik’s benefit.

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