Here at Lineups we want to be as transparent as possible. This is where I will recap the prior day’s picks, and record my overall record.
Overall – 21-19-3
Last Article – 1-3
Both props from the Marlins-Cubs game did not hit, as Trevor Richards allowed four hits and Anthony Rizzo failed to get on base. Freddy Peralta fell short of the strikeout prop, but Aaron Nola allowed over three earned runs to the Mets, which was the lone winner.
Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics
Collin McHugh OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Collin McHugh has channeled what he did in the bullpen last season to a starting role. His slider is terrific and he is throwing it over 35% of the time to both sides of the plate. He is getting a 48% whiff rate on it. Four bats have over a 20% strikeout rate in this lineup against right-handers so far this season, there are five hitters with over that mark. McHugh has a 33.3% strikeout rate this season, and has notched 9, 4, and 9 this season.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
OVER 27.5 Total Hits, Runs, And Errors (-115)
Michael Conforto OVER 2.5 Total Hits, Runs, And RBI (+135)
Both teams are sitting with an implied total over five 4.5 tonight, and have both averaged over 11 combined runs per game this season. With that they have averaged 19 hits as well. The last ten meetings between these two, they have combined for nine runs and 19 hits. Nick Pivetta has struggled this season, while Steven Matz has pitched very well. However, Matz gets a very good lineup against left-handed pitching. The Mets have been swinging hot bats, while Pivetta has been very poor to star the season. Like the over prop here.
Michael Conforto has a .308 ISO and .467 wOBA off right-handers this season. Nick Pivetta is struggling against lefties, allowing a .480 wOBA and .325 ISO. He was even struggling going back to last season. Conforto is in an excellent spot, and a good prop hit with the +135 odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
Robbie Ray UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (EVEN)
Atlanta just isn’t a team that strikes out much, and when we get these high strikeout props against them, I love looking towards the under. Robbie Ray has some nasty stuff, and has over a 30% strikeout rate dating back to last season. However, Atlanta’s lineup has just a 20.6% strikeout rate against lefties in that span. Atlanta is only averaging 8.5 strikeouts per game as a team this season. Ray also has a 17% walk rate this season which drives his pitch counts up making it tough to go deep into games. This also is a knock if he can’t rack up strikeouts within the first few innings.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Tyler Glasnow has been one of the top arms in 2019 so far, and gets a hapless Baltimore offense tonight. Unlike Ray, I am buying the seven plus strikeouts here for Tyler Glasnow. He has a 32.8% strikeout rate this season, holding both sides of the plate to under a .250 wOBA. This lineup has five bats with over a 20% strikeout rate this season, and dating back to last season this lineup has a 25.3% strikeout rate as a whole. He has a whiff rate of 41% on his curve and 54% on his slider. His fastball is holding hitters to a .236 wOBA and 22% whiff rate.